第二十三届韩素音青年翻译奖竞赛参考译文（汉译英）

The Skyscraper Index: A Foreshadowing of Economic Crisis<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

For politicians and the public at large, skyscrapers—gigantic buildings backed by huge economic power—are a symbol of social progress and economic prosperity. Contrary to this popular belief, some economists argue that the emergence of skyscrapers and those reaching new heights in particular, would more often than not precede economic downturns.

“The market goes down as tall buildings go up.” That was the assertion made in 1999 by Andrew Lawrence, a securities analyst at Deutsche Bank. At the Lehman Brothers’ global economic conference held in Beijing on February 15, 2006, John Llewellyn, Lehman’s global chief economist, alerted his Chinese clients to the “skyscraper index,” predicting that “if a global crisis strikes, it will probably be in 2007 or 2008.”

Despite his accurate prediction for the 2007-08 economic crisis, Llewellyn never envisioned that the century-old financial empire would go up in smoke amid the crisis. Are skyscrapers a crowning glory or a clinging curse for the world economy? And is there indeed a close connection between skyscrapers and economic crises?

In 1999, Andrew Lawrence, based on his research, formulated what he called the “skyscraper index,” showing a correlation between the construction of skyscrapers and subsequent economic downturns. In fact, the completion of each new record-setting skyscraper is often followed by an economic recession. Since the beginning of the 20th century, the world has seen four major skyscraper booms, each accompanied by an economic crisis or a round of financial turbulence.

In the 1920s, concurrent with overall economic recovery and the strongest rebound ever seen in the stock market, the United States went on a wild residential and commercial building spree. During this period, three record-breaking skyscrapers began to be built in succession. Within the three years from 1929 to 1931, 40 Wall Street, the Chrysler Building and the Empire State Building were completed in New York. What followed, however, was not a new wave of prosperity, but the Great Depression unprecedented in history. Similarly, after a period of strong and sustained economic boom in the 1960s, known to Americans as the “Golden Age,” construction began on the World Trade Center in New York and the Sears Tower in Chicago. The two new record-setting skyscrapers were completed in 1972 and 1974 respectively. Soon afterwards, the global economy sank heavily into stagflation.

The correlation between supertall buildings and economic crises is too close to be coincidental. What is it then that keeps them so closely tied to each other?

Firstly, human nature is at play. One of the negative aspects of human nature is blind confidence, which is reflected in the fact that humans look at things in a way that is stubbornly subjective due to their inadequate understanding of the actual world. Indeed, Lawrence himself described his index correlating skyscrapers with economic downturns as an “unhealthy 100-year correlation.” Things of that kind have existed in human society for well over 100 years. Looking back, one may readily find similar events that unfolded during the long span of Chinese history. In the heyday of the Shang Dynasty, King Zhou ordered the construction of Lutai (Stag Gallery) , which aroused great indignation and condemnation among his people. And it was at Lutai that King Zhou ended up burning himself to death. During the most glorious years of the Qing Dynasty, Emperor Qianlong launched large-scale landscaping projects, resulting in the decline of national strength and a humiliating loss of sovereignty.

Secondly, profit is a motive. All business activities are profit-driven in nature. An economic boom is often preceded by a cycle of low interest rates, which serves as a precondition for the boom. In the process of economic growth, interest returns are always lower than expected, which creates a succession of interest transmission channels—a chain of vested interest groups (as mentioned earlier). The economic boom, combined with relatively lower interest rates, exerts a direct influence on land prices, business demand and easy access to financial support, a plan is conceived for the construction of yet another record-setting skyscraper.

Just as day follows night in a 24-hour period and seasonal variations occur in a year, the economy undergoes a boom-bust cycle, and all commodity prices respond to the forces of supply and demand. As the Chinese saying goes, anything that reaches its s climax returns cyclically to its opposite extreme. A market demand for the construction of skyscrapers emerges from what is called the “golden climate,” which is created by a combination of factors: lower interest rates, business expansion, rising capital prices, and a general mood of excessive optimism among the vast majority of the public. However, such a “golden climate” never lasts long.

It is therefore quite common that no sooner is a skyscraper completed than the economy enters a recession and then is thrown into deeper distress by the time the skyscraper is put to use. This best reveals the inseparable correlation between skyscrapers and economic downturns. Indeed, the world’s tallest buildings often stand as monuments to past prosperity.