拉加德在国际货币基金组织与世界银行2013年秋季年会上的讲话（中英对照）

III. The Road Ahead

三、展望未来

Why venture into the future? Because the future is a promise that only time can deliver.

为什么要向未来行进？因为未来是一种希望，这种希望只有时间才能成就。

At the Fund—Management, staff, and your Executive Directors—we have been giving some thought to the long-term trends that might shape the next generation.

在基金组织，我们的管理层、工作人员和执董们一直在思考，塑造未来二十多年全球形态的长期趋势有哪些。

I will mention three: a more multipolar world; a more financially integrated world; and what I would describe as the “new frontiers of risk”.

我想谈下面三个趋势：更加多极化的世界；金融日益一体化的世界；以及我先前所提出的 “新风险领域”。

The first is a more multi-polar world.

首先是更加多极化的世界。

In just the next decade, the share of emerging and developing economies in global GDP will increase from about half to nearly two-thirds. Per capita incomes will converge across countries, with a rapidly expanding middle class in those nations.

下个十年，新兴经济体和发展中经济体占全球GDP的比例将从二分之一攀升至三分之二。世界各国人均收入将趋同，这些国家的中产阶级将迅速壮大。

So the stage is set for a world, 20 or 30 years from now, where economic power will be far less concentrated in the advanced economies—and more vastly dispersed across all regions.

我们已经预见到了20或30年后的世界格局，那时经济实力将不会聚集在先进经济体，而是广泛分散在世界各地。

What does this mean for the Fund?

这对基金组织来说意味着什么？

We must be even more representative and mirror these shifts—and we are already moving in this direction.

我们需要一个代表性更强的基金组织，以反映这些变化——我们正在朝这个方向努力。

We all know what is at stake with the 2010 governance reforms. Once implemented—I am hopeful it will happen, even if not as quickly as we all would have liked—the IMF will have a platform on which to build further.

我们都了解2010年治理改革的重要性。一旦实施这些改革——我对此持有信心，尽管目前的进展没有我们预期得那么快——基金组织将立于一个不断加筑平台之上。

Representation, of course, is not just about shares or chairs. It is also about how we engage with our members. To be their trusted advisor, our analysis and advice must meet important tests: it must be of the highest quality; it must be objective; it must be even-handed; and it must be of help to you.

当然，代表性并不仅限于投票权比重或席位，还关乎我们如何与成员国接触交流。要成为值得信赖的咨询顾问，我们的分析和建议必须满足一些重要的要求——高质量、客观性、公正性，以及对成员国的有用性。

We are committed to meet those tests.

我们将努力满足这些要求。

They will become even more relevant as our membership faces a world of increasing financial integration—that is my second long-term trend.

随着成员国面对着一个金融一体化程度越来越高的世界（这也是我要讲的第二个长期趋势），这些工作的重要性也越来越突出。

When the IMF was founded, private financial flows barely registered. By the time of the crisis, the degree of financial integration had increased by a multiple of ten or more.

基金组织成立时，私人资金流动很少。但到金融危机出现前夕，金融一体化的程度已经提高了不止十倍。

Today, the world economy is not simply connected, it is hyperconnected. This will propel financial integration on a scale not yet quantified, and to corners of the world not yet reached.

如今的世界经济不是简单地相互关联，而是超级互联。这将促使金融一体化以不可估量的规模推进到目前还未触及的世界各个角落。

As emerging and developing countries grow and converge, their financial interconnections will become deeper and more complex.

随着新兴市场和发展中国家的增长和收入的趋同，它们的金融互联性将进一步深化和复杂化。

Deeper integration will fuel growth, but not without risk. Experience teaches us an important lesson: greater financial integration raises the probability and size of financial crises.

深度的一体化将促进增长，但也会带来风险。历史经验告诉了我们一个重要的道理：金融一体化的加深加大了金融危机的概率，也放大了金融危机的影响范围。

What does it mean for the Fund? And for you?

这对基金组织来说意味着什么？对你们又意味着什么？

It means sharpening our tools for crisis prevention: strengthening our work on financial sector risks, repair, and reform; more thorough and timely analysis of interlinkages and spillovers between countries; and clearer early warning.

这意味着我们要增强危机防范工具：加强在金融部门风险、修复和改革方面的努力；更全面、及时地分析各国之间的相互联系和溢出效应；并提供更明确的预警。

It also means strengthening our support for crisis resolution: adapting our lending toolkit as needed; strengthening our cooperation, including with regional financial arrangements; and ensuring that the burden of adjustment is shared fairly.

它还意味着加大对危机处置机制的支持：根据需要调整我们的贷款工具；加强合作，包括与区域融资安排的合作；确保调整负担的公平分摊。

It also raises the question of ensuring that the Fund will have enough resources to help our members deal with future crises.

它还意味着，要确保基金组织拥有足够的资源来帮助成员国应对未来的危机。

I would also like to take this opportunity to thank all member countries who agreed to transfer gold profits to help meet the financing needs of the low-income countries in the years ahead.

我还想借此机会感谢所有成员国同意将出售黄金所得利润用于满足低收入国家未来融资需求的善举。

The capacity to prevent and resolve crises will be vital.

强化防范和处置风险的能力至关重要。

This is especially true given the “new frontiers of risk” that our membership will face—that is my final long-term trend.

尤其是考虑到成员国将要面临的新风险领域，更是如此。这也是我下面要谈的第三个也是最后一个长期主题。

These are challenges you are well aware of. We, at the Fund, are sharpening our focus on their economic effects. Let me mention a few.

这都是你们都十分关注的挑战领域。基金组织正在重点分析它们的经济影响。下面我具体讲几个。

Demographic shifts will affect growth and stability.

人口转型将影响增长和稳定。

By 2030, there will be 1.1 billion more people in the world than today—97 percent of them will be in emerging and developing countries. One billion people will be 65 years or older. These demographics—and their inter-generational costs—will dramatically affect education, healthcare, savings, pensions, public spending.

到2030年时，世界人口将比现在增加11亿，新增人口中新兴市场和发展中国家占据97%。此外，65岁以上老人将达到10亿。这种人口状况以及代际成本将极大地影响教育、医疗、储蓄、养老金和公共支出。

Income distribution will also affect growth and stability.

收入分配问题也将对增长和稳定造成影响。

Today, inequality stands at levels not seen since the Fund was created. In many countries, this has led to growing frustration and breakdowns in social and political cohesion. The current recovery is not reversing this trend. It remains too uneven—too many people are unemployed, too many people are left out.

目前，收入不平等已经达到基金组织成立以来的最高水平。在很多国家，这已经引发了越来越多的不满，并导致社会和政治凝聚力的失却。目前的经济复苏也未能扭转这个趋势。复苏也是严重失衡的——太多人失业，太多人被甩下。

Environmental sustainability will affect growth and stability.

环境可持续性问题也将影响增长和稳定。

Average temperatures are rising, and with it the risk of more frequent natural disasters, more volatile agricultural output, and more food and water insecurity. In many countries, particularly the poorest, it will exacerbate their already fragile state.

平均气温不断升高，带来更频繁的自然灾害、农业产出的波动加剧、食品和饮用水的愈发不安全。在很多国家，尤其是最贫困的国家，全球变暖将恶化其本已脆弱的局势。

What does this mean for the Fund? And for you?

那么，这些对基金组织来说意味着什么呢？对你们又意味着什么呢？

These issues threaten the macroeconomic health of our member countries. In that case, they must be a part of our work. There are a number of ways that we can help.

这些问题将威胁成员国的宏观经济稳健，因而它们也必须成为基金组织工作的一部分。我们可以通过多种方式提供帮助。

I am not suggesting we go into the territory of others, but we can and must cooperate more effectively, with the Bank and others, drawing on their expertise as needed—and offering ours. I am thinking, for instance, of our fiscal advice on carbon pricing.

我们不会染指其他机构的领地，但是我们能，也必须与世行和其他机构更有效地合作，吸取对我们有用的专业知识，同时分享我们的专长，例如在有关碳定价的财政建议方面。

For another, we can help focus global attention on specific issues. Take, for example, our recent research on energy subsidies. It showed how global savings of almost $2 trillion could be used to help better protect the environment and the poor. The same is true for our research demonstrating the linkage between income equality and sustained growth.

另一方面，我们能推动全球专注于特定问题。对能源补贴的最新研究就是一个例子。该研究分析了如何利用全球能源补贴改革节省下来的2万亿美元，更好地保护环境和贫困人口。其他有用的研究还包括关于收入平等和可持续增长之间的关联。

And, just a few weeks ago, a new IMF study showed that engaging women more fully in the labor market, could increase per capita incomes by almost 30 percent in some cases, but in most by a margin of 3 percent. This could be an economic game-changer. And given that today is The International Day of the Girl, there is no better time to convey this message!

几周之前，一份新的基金组织研究表明，积极支持女性加入劳动力市场能使有些国家的人均收入提高近30%，多数国家也可以提升3%。这个行动将打开世界各国的经济局面。今天正好是国际女孩节，在今天发出这样的讯息是最适当不过了！

In all these areas, the Fund’s comparative advantage, again, is to bring our macro-critical perspective to bear. Maintaining that focus and adapting our approach is what has made the IMF an effective institution in the past. Retaining that focus and adapting our approach will enable us to support our membership effectively in the future.

在这些新领域，基金组织的比较优势在于其宏观批判视角。对这一点的执着以及不断调整我们的工作方法，是基金组织多年来一直是一个高效组织的原因。继续秉承这一传统重点并保持调整，也是我们未来更有效地对成员国提供支持的保障。

Conclusion: Forging a New Future Together

总结：共同塑造美好明天

Mr. Chairman, Governors, Excellencies:

主席、各位理事、各位尊敬的来宾：

Almost 70 years ago, the IMF began with some 40 members. Today, there are 188 of you. Together we are the Fund. You are the Fund.

约70年前基金组织成立时只有40来个成员国。如今，已有188国之众。在一起，我们就是基金组织。你们就是基金组织。

As I stand here with you, I recognize an IMF that was founded on the spirit of international cooperation.

我和在座诸位都意识到，基金组织是建立在国际合作的精神基座之上的。

But, more than that, the principles I have talked about today—flexibility, focus, service—have helped us stand the test of time.

不仅如此，我今天谈到的几个原则——保持灵活，突出重点，提供服务——也帮助我们一同经历了时间的考验。

The philosopher Edmund Burke described society as “a partnership in every virtue, and in all perfection… a partnership not only between those who are living, but between those who are to be born.”

哲人埃德蒙德·柏克将社会形容为“寓于各种道德、一切完美意义上的合作关系„„它不仅仅是当世者的合作，而且也是后来者的合作”。

This is how I see the IMF—as a partnership between its member countries. A partnership of the present—and for the future.

这也是我对基金组织的看法——它是我们成员国之间的合作，不论是现在，还是未来。

Thank you.

谢谢！