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China’s Great Promise 实现中国的远大前程
Murtaza Syed 穆尔塔扎·赛义德
August 8, 2013 2013
年8 月8 日
Anticipation of the U.S. Federal
Reserve’s exit from quantitative easing has dominated headlines in recent
weeks. Half a world away, less conspicuously, but no less importantly, China,
the globe’s second largest economy, is designing its own policy adjustments:
firstly, unwinding the fiscal and monetary stimulus that helped shield it from
the Great Recession and lifted global growth (but which also created some
vulnerabilities), and secondly transitioning out of a growth model that has
generated spectacular growth over the last three decades, but which is now
running out of fuel.
最近几个星期，关于美国联邦储备委员会退出量化宽松政策的预期占据了新闻头条。远在半个地球的距离之外，虽不如美国引人注目，但却同样重要的是，世界第二大经济体中国正在设计其自身的政策调整：首先，逐渐减少财政和货币刺激措施，这些措施帮助中国避免了经济大萧条，并促进了全球经济增长（但同时也制造了一些脆弱性）。其次，转变经济增长模式，虽然该模式在过去三十年里实现了令人瞩目的经济增长，但现在却变得不合时宜。
Managed well, these twin
adjustments would allow China to prolong its economic miracle in a sustainable
way, with a significant positive impact for the rest of the world.
上述两个调整如果管理得当，那么中国将能够以可持续的方式继续延续其经济增长奇迹，并对世界其他地区产生积极影响。
Why are
these adjustments needed? 为何需要进行这些调整？
In the years prior to the global
crisis, China’s economy was propelled by rapid productivity gains from forceful
restructuring of the state-owned sector, a bold cleanup of the banking system
and the country’s dramatic entry into the global trading system through
accession to the World Trade Organization. These forces paved the way for a
decade of growth powered by investment and exports.
在全球金融危机爆发之前的几年里，中国经济的推动力包括国有经济部门的有力改革所带来的生产率快速提高、对银行体系的大胆清理，以及加入世界贸易组织之后大步迈入全球贸易体系。这几股力量为投资和出口带动的十年经济增长铺平了道路。
A similar big-bang is needed now,
but this time centered on consumption and services. After the global crisis
erupted, China has relied heavily on a mixture of loose monetary and
quasi-fiscal policies to help weather the storm. While propping up growth,
these policies have also left problems in their wake in the form of rising
local government debt and an overstretched financial system. They have also
arguably thrown the structure of the economy more out of kilter, by making it
increasingly reliant on ever higher levels of (increasingly inefficient)
investment and credit.
现在需要进行类似的大刀阔斧式调整，但这次的重点是消费和服务。在全球金融危机爆发之后，中国主要依靠宽松的货币政策和准财政政策的组合，经受住了此次危机的考验。虽然这些政策支撑了经济增长，但同时也留下了一些问题，比如地方政府债务飙升，以及金融体系过度扩张。这些政策无疑也造成经济结构失衡，导致其越来越依赖于（效率日益低下的）投资和信贷的不断增加。
The challenge for China now is to
transition away from the credit and investment-led pattern of recent growth, to
a more consumer-based and sustainable model. The latest assessment of the
Chinese economy by the International Monetary Fund has some ideas about how to
achieve this. The new Chinese leadership is itself keenly aware of these
challenges. It has repeatedly emphasized its unwillingness to support
unsustainable growth through another dose of stimulus. Expectations are high
that a bold new phase of reforms will be announced this fall, which will allow
China to decisively shift the pattern of its growth.
中国现在所面临的挑战是转变发展模式，从信贷和投资拉动的增长模式转变到更多地以消费者为基础的可持续发展模式。最新的基金组织对中国经济的评估就如何做到这一点提出了一些想法。中国新一届领导班子自身也深切地认识到这些挑战，并一再强调其不愿意通过另一轮刺激措施来支持不可持续的经济增长。外界广泛猜测今年秋季将会出台新阶段的改革方案，这将使中国能够果断转变其增长模式。 |
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