So what
should we be looking for during the coming months? 那么，未来几个月里我们将看到什么？
China’s economy has slowed from
the double-digit growth rates of the past but there are good reasons why,
including demographic change and natural laws of gravity associated with
catching up with the rest of the world. The trick is to stay calm as this
happens and avoid shoring up growth excessively, while being ready to respond
if the employment situation worsens significantly.
中国的经济已经有所放缓，不再是以前的两位数增速，但经济放缓有很好的理由，其中包括人口结构变化以及追赶世界水平过程中的增速自然下降。诀窍是面对经济放缓，要保持冷静，避免支持经济过度增长，同时准备好应对就业形势显著恶化。
So in the near term, China should
begin to pull in credit growth (as signaled through the interbank market last
month). In particular, consistent with recent official statements, credit
flowing through the less well-regulated parts of the financial system—and to
sectors that are already struggling with overcapacity and excess
leverage—should be curbed, including through tighter regulation and
supervision. At the same time, quasi-fiscal support through local
governments—which has contributed to government debt rising to nearly 50
percent of GDP—should be unwound steadily to ensure that China’s traditionally
sound public finances remain strong in the years to come.
因此，在短期内，中国应开始控制信贷增长（如上个月银行间市场所表明的）。具体而言，根据最近的官方声明，应当通过加强监管和监督，遏制经由金融体系中监管不严格的部门开展信贷流动（以及信贷流向已经产能过剩和过度杠杆化的部门）。与此同时，通过地方政府提供的准财政支持导致地方政府债务上升至GDP 的50%左右，应当稳步退出，以确保未来几年中国一贯稳健的公共财政仍然能够保持强劲。
Calibrating this withdrawal will
be tricky, of course, given residual uncertainties about both the global
recovery and domestic growth momentum. But if growth slows too sharply, there
would be scope to quickly reverse gears on the fiscal side and provide some
targeted stimulus. However, it should be very different from that of the last
few years by being conducted through the budget (and not the banks and local
government platforms) and be directed at supporting household incomes and
consumption (and not the corporate sector and investment). This would help
facilitate the second of the twin adjustments that China needs to make, as
discussed below.
当然，鉴于全球经济复苏和国内经济增长势头仍然存在不确定性，合理安排退出将会是棘手的。但是，如果经济增长过于急剧地放缓，则将有空间迅速调整财政政策，提供一些有针对性的刺激。然而，这种刺激将与过去几年的刺激有很大的不同，因为它通过预算（而不是银行和地方政府平台）开展，并主要用于支持住户收入的增加和促进消费（而不是针对企业部门和投资）。这将有助于推动中国需要进行的调整的第二个方面，具体见下文讨论。
Growth
for all 让经济增长造福所有人
The other major task that the
Chinese policymakers recognize is the need to steer the economy onto a
different growth path—one that is more sustainable by being more consumer
based, inclusive and environmentally friendly. With investment already
accounting for nearly half of economic activity and exports unlikely to be as
buoyant as in the pre-crisis years, consumption needs to become the main growth
driver. Moreover, the capital and resource‑intensive model of China’s investment-led growth has
had unfortunate by‑products
in the form of damaging pollution and high levels of inequality.
中国的政策制定者认识到的另一项主要任务是，需要引导经济走上不同的增长道路，即更多地以消费者为基础、更具包容性和环境友好型的可持续发展道路。由于投资已经占到经济活动的一半，出口也不太可能像危机前几年那样繁荣，消费必须成为主要的增长动力。此外，中国以投资为主导的资本和资源密集型的增长模式带来了一些不利附带影响，表现在具有破坏性的环境污染和高度的不平等，这令人感到遗憾。
To engineer the shift, China will
have to rely on market forces and price signals, to help banks and firms
discover new growth engines in a changed global and domestic environment.
Reforming the financial system and the corporate sector will be paramount in
this context, so as to make funding available on more market-based terms to a
broader set of borrowers who can use the money to invest in a new range of
sectors, including both domestic ones—such as labor-intensive service
industries—and higher value-added exporting ones. These reforms will need to be
carefully calibrated and sequenced, and will take time to fully bear fruit—but
they should not be put off simply because they are complicated.
为了设计这种转变，中国将不得不依靠市场力量和价格信号，以帮助银行和企业在一个变化了的全球和国内环境中发现新的经济增长引擎。在这方面，改革金融体系和企业部门将至关重要，要更多地根据市场条件发放贷款，并提供给更多的借款者，使其能够将钱投资于一些新的行业，包括国内行业（如劳动密集型的服务业和高附加值的出口行业）。需要仔细斟酌这些改革并安排好改革的顺序，改革取得成果需要一段时间，但不能仅仅因为改革很复杂而将其搁置。
At the same time, they need to be
complemented by other steps to boost consumption and worker’s incomes. Three
strands are needed: firstly, reducing the incentives for investment by putting
in place fairer resource prices, interest rates, and distributing dividends
from state-owned enterprises, secondly, boosting household incomes through
higher wages and lower social security contributions, and thirdly, lowering
precautionary savings by continuing to strengthen the social safety net and
increase spending on pensions and healthcare. Achieving these will also call
for structural changes to the fiscal relationship between the central and local
governments, so as to enable social expenditure obligations and priority
infrastructure needs to be met without local governments having to fund
themselves through indirect borrowing and land sales.
与此同时，需要对改革辅以其他措施，以促进消费和增加工人的收入。需要考虑三个方面：首先，确定更为公平的资源价格、利率和派发国有企业的红利，减少对投资的激励。其次，提高工资和降低社会保障缴款，增加家庭收入。第三，继续增强社会安全网和增加养老金和医疗支出，降低预防性储蓄。要实现这几点，还需要转变中央政府和地方政府之间财政关系的结构，使得社会支出的义务和重要的基础设施需求在不需要地方政府通过间接的借款和出售土地的情况下就可以满足。
Together, these reforms have the
potential to create a virtuous circle that generates long‑lasting benefits. The
transition will certainly not be an easy one, given China’s size and increasing
complexity. It will also involve accepting somewhat lower growth in the next
few years as these measures are put in place. But the end result will be a
stronger and more sustainable economic model, which sees the fruits of China’s
growth more equitably shared and allows it to remain a powerful engine of the
global economy over the next decade and beyond. Moreover, a successful
transition would lower the risk of China experiencing a hard landing in the
medium term that would leave it mired in the notorious middle-income trap. The
new Chinese leadership has announced their commitment to reforms. It is now
time for action.
总之，这些改革有可能会形成一个良性循环，并产生持久的收益。当然，这种转变不会轻松实现，因为中国的经济规模庞大，且越来越复杂。随着这些措施的到位，转变还将涉及到接受未来几年里经济增速放缓。但最终的结果将是更强大和更可持续的经济增长模式，使中国的经济增长成果得到更公平的分享，并使其在未来十年及以后继续成为全球经济增长的强大引擎。此外，成功转型将降低中国在中期内经济硬着陆，继而陷入中等收入陷阱的风险。新一届中国领导人已经宣布了其对改革的承诺。现在是行动的时候了。 |
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