崔天凯大使：繁荣的中国造福世界（中英对照）

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A Prosperous China Benefits the World

繁荣的中国造福世界

 

Cui Tiankai, China’s ambassador to the U.S.

中国驻美国大使 崔天凯

 

The world economy has had an unpleasant start to 2016-global stocks are slumping, oil prices hit a 10-year low, and the values of currencies in emerging markets have been very volatile. Sadly, for no logical reason, China is often used as a scapegoat for current global market fluctuation.

 

全球经济2016年开局不利：股市持续下行，新兴市场货币动荡，油价跌至10年新低。令人遗憾的是，中国常常毫无理由地被当作此轮全球市场动荡的“替罪羊”。

 

It is imperative that people are clear about the reality behind the world-wide economic volatility. There are four points that help clarify this phenomenon.

 

了解市场动荡背后的事实十分重要，四个方面值得关注。

 

For one, China’s economic growth remains strong and its contribution to the world economy remains impressive. According to the World Bank, between 2009 and 2014 China’s GDP grew at an average annual rate of 8.7%, while average world growth was 2%. In that same period, China was the stimulant behind 30% of global economic growth. In 2015, China was still one of the largest and fastest-growing economies, with a growth rate of 6.9%, and it contributed 25% to global growth.

 

This is in large part because the middle class has been the driving force of consumption in China. According to Credit Suisse ‘s most recent Global Wealth Report, China’s middle class (individuals with wealth between $50,000 and $500,000) now ranks the largest in the world with 109 million members, surpassing the U.S. with 92 million members. According to the Boston Consulting Group, China has by far the most private wealth in Asia, and ranks second only to the U.S. globally. To meet the resulting growing demand, foreign companies are looking to expand into China. For example, Starbucks is planning to open 2,500 stores in China in the next five years-500 a year.

 

首先，中国经济仍保持较快增长，是世界经济增长的重要支柱。世界银行数据显示，2009年至2014年，中国国内生产总值（GDP）年均增长8.7%，对全球经济增长贡献率达30%，而同期全球经济平均增速仅2%。2015年，中国GDP增速为6.9%，依旧是全球经济规模最大、增长最快的经济体之一，对全球经济增长贡献率达25%。中国的中产阶级规模迅速扩大，他们成为消费的动力。根据瑞士信贷最新《全球财富报告》，中国的中产阶级人数已达1.09亿，超过美国的9200万人。波士顿咨询公司新近研究显示，中国私人财富总量在亚洲居首，在全球位列第二，仅次于美国。面对不断增长的需求，很多外国公司都在谋划扩大在中国的市场份额。不久前，星巴克集团宣布未来5年将在中国新设2500家分店，平均每年增加500家。

 

The fluctuations in the Chinese stock market have been of great concern to many, and understandably investors were unnerved when the stock market declined 20% in the first month of this year. Undoubtedly, there is room for improvement in market management, but China’s real economy in the long term has not been harmed since the stock-market turmoil began last August.

 

It’s important to remember that China’s stock market is still developing – its value is about 30% of China’s total GDP, compared with 100% in the U.S. For this reason, China’s stock-market ups and downs shouldn’t be taken as reflective of general sentiment about the Chinese economy or its overall performance.

 

第二，一些人对中国股市波动表示担忧。当然，股指在今年一月下降20%，引发担忧可以理解，中国股市管理也确有需要进一步完善的空间。但从长期看，去年8月以来的中国股市动荡并不会对中国实体经济造成损害。中国股市尚处于发展过程中，市值仅占GDP的30%，远低于美国的100%。中国股市动向并不完全反映实体经济或公司业绩，了解这一点很重要。

 

The depreciation of the yuan has been a favorite focus of the media recently. Major news outlets have implied that the Chinese government has intentionally devalued the yuan to boost exports. This claim is false. While the economic slowdown has contributed, China’s currency depreciation is mainly the result of an exchange-rate reform launched last year to follow international standards and to establish a more flexible system linked to a basket of currencies, thus letting markets play the decisive role. This has nothing to do with boosting exports.

 

The reform worked. Recently the yuan has appreciated significantly against both the U.S. dollar and the basket of currencies, showing its value can rise and fall. As former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers explained in the Washington Post last November, it is incoherent to favor both financial market liberalization in China-with more reliance on market forces-and exchange-rate appreciation.

 

近期，媒体也很关注人民币贬值。不少报道认为，中国政府试图通过人民币贬值来刺激出口。这是错误的。人民币贬值受到中国经济增速放缓影响，但更主要的原因是中国政府去年启动了新一轮汇率机制改革，旨在根据国际标准建立参考一篮子货币的更具弹性的汇率机制，从而让市场对人民币汇率发挥决定性作用，这与刺激出口无关。改革已见成效。近期，人民币对美元出现快速升值，对一篮子货币汇率走高，表明人民币已进入有升有降的双向波动轨道。美国前财长劳伦斯·萨默斯去年11月在《华盛顿邮报》刊文称，一方面要求中国推进金融自由化改革，让市场发挥更大作用，另一方面又期待人民币持续升值，这不符合逻辑。

 

Meanwhile, for commodities, there is still significant demand among Chinese consumers. Between January and November 2015, China imported 112 million tons of grain-an increase of 27.3% from 2014. That included 25% of U.S. beans and 40% of U.S. cotton production. Crude oil imports increased by 8.8%. The downward pressure on oil prices is largely attributable to competition for global market share between traditional oil suppliers and new shale oil producers. The lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil exports has also contributed to lower oil prices.

 

第三，中国对大宗商品的需求依然旺盛。2015年1月至11月，中国进口粮食1.12亿吨，比2014年多27.3%。中国是美国农产品的主要买家，进口了美国25%的大豆和40%的棉花。2015年全年，中国原油进口量增加8.8%。国际油价走低主要源于传统石油供给国与新兴页岩油生产国为争夺国际市场份额竞相提高石油产量。对伊朗石油出口解除制裁也进一步加剧了油价下行压力。

 

Structural reforms will bring a brighter future to China’s economy and, consequently, greater opportunity to the world. A large Chinese stimulus package in 2008 played an important role in preventing the meltdown of the world economy, but also led to the serious problem of overcapacity and structural imbalance in the Chinese economy, which has contributed to the current economic slowdown. To sustain growth, China is implementing structural reforms that place greater emphasis on developing an innovation-and-consumption-driven economy. China’s 13th Five-Year Plan lays out five clear development concepts: innovation, coordination, green development, opening-up and inclusiveness.

 

最后，结构改革将给中国经济带来更为光明的前景，为全球经济提供更多机会。2008年金融危机爆发后，中国推出大规模经济刺激计划，对防止全球经济深度衰退起到了重要作用，但同时也带来了严重的产能过剩和结构失衡，成为当前中国经济增速放缓的重要原因之一。为实现经济可持续发展，中国政府决定实施结构改革，重点发展创新驱动型和消费驱动型经济，并在“十三五”规划建议中明确提出创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享等五大发展理念。

 

Structural reforms are never easy and come with risks. Yet China’s leaders are determined to see them through. China is, in fact, playing a pioneering role in the structural reform that the global economy desperately needs, hence it should be applauded and encouraged.

 

当然，结构改革绝非易事，甚至伴随各种风险，但中国领导人决心将改革进行到底。全球经济结构改革刻不容缓，而事实上中国已成为改革的先锋，理应得到国际社会的喝彩和支持。

 

A prosperous China benefits the world. As the host of the 2016 G-20 summit, China is ready to work with the rest of the world to pool wisdom, advance international economic cooperation and improve global economic governance to achieve strong, sustainable and balanced growth. As the two largest economies in the world, China and the U.S. have an important role to play.

 

一个繁荣的中国使世界受益。作为今年二十国集团主席国，中国将与其他国家一道，汇集全球智慧，加强国际经济合作，完善全球经济治理，共同推动世界经济强劲、可持续、平衡增长。作为全球最大的两个经济体，中美两国将在此过程中发挥重要作用。