| 英语口译、笔译资料下载 中文版：非常规货币政策的全面分析.doc The
Global Calculus of Unconventional Monetary Policies 非常规货币政策的全面分析
Christine Lagarde, Managing
Director, International Monetary Fund 克里斯蒂娜·拉加德，国际货币基金组织总裁
Jackson Hole, August 23, 2013 杰克逊霍尔，2013年8月23日
Good afternoon. Let me thank
Esther George for inviting me to this year’s Symposium. I am delighted to be
here, as always. The Federal Reserve System, and this event in particular, are
well known for being at the cutting edge of monetary policy research and
analysis. The reflections of this morning certainly live up to that reputation.
各位下午好！感谢埃斯特·乔治邀请我参加今年的座谈会。很高兴来到这里。众所周知，美联储系统，尤其是本座谈会，在货币政策研究和分析方面具引领地位。今天上午的探讨无疑也证明了这一点。
The challenge for today’s
generation of policymakers is to rethink and reimagine how to get our economies
back to work. One of the most striking aspects of that has been the willingness
of central banks in advanced economies to ‘dive into the deep end’ of the
policymaking pool.
当今一代的政策制定者面临的挑战是反思并重新计划如何让经济重回正途。其中一个显著特征就是发达经济体的央行一直乐意“跳入政策制定这一泳池的深水区”。
In many respects, central banks
have been the heroes of the global financial crisis. Compared with conventional
monetary policy, the unconventional monetary policies of the past few years
have been bolder in ambition and larger in scale. These exceptional actions
helped the world pull back from the precipice of another Great Depression.
从诸多方面看，央行在全球金融危机中一直扮演着英雄的角色。和常规货币政策相比，过去几年的非常规货币政策更大胆，也更具规模。这些非常行动使全球免于另一次大萧条。
The crisis also gave us cause to
rethink the extent to which the world is interconnected. A bankruptcy in the
United States in 2008 brought the world economy to its knees. Then Eurozone
troubles shook the global economy again. Another worry today is the risk of a
slowdown in emerging markets pulling back growth everywhere.
这次危机也促使我们反思各国之间相互关联的程度。美国2008年的一起破产事件重创了世界经济。随后，欧元区的困境再次对全球经济造成冲击。如今另一个担忧是新兴市场的经济放缓可能会累及全球增长。
Unconventional monetary policies
bring an added twist. This is very much on our minds, of course, as we have
watched developments this week. It reminds us that policy actions in one corner
of the world can reach all corners—and it is the job of the IMF to shine a
light on developments in all corners of the world.
非常规货币政策带来了一个新变化。当然，鉴于本周对事态的观察，我们都很清楚这一点。这提醒我们，世界任何角落的政策行动都将对其他地区产生影响——基金组织的工作就是对世界各个角落的动向提供指导。
More broadly, unconventional
monetary policies involve navigating a new world. In one sense, it is like
stepping into a dark room. To borrow some words from John F. Kennedy: “We are
not here to curse the darkness, but to light the candle that can guide us
through that darkness to a safe and sane future.” It is our collective job to
light a candle in that dark room.
更广泛而言，非常规货币政策是一个全新的世界里探索前路。某种意义上，这好比踏进一件黑屋。借用约翰·肯尼迪的话：“我们到这里来不是为了诅咒黑暗，而是为了点燃光明，引导我们穿过黑暗通向安全、理智的未来。”我们要一起点亮这间黑屋。
So this is my main message today:
We need to work better together to understand more fully the impact of these
unconventional policies—local and global—and how that affects the path of exit.
And, above all, we must use the time wisely and not waste the space provided by
unconventional policies. Global policymakers—all policymakers, within countries
and across countries—have a responsibility to take the full range of actions
needed to restore stability and growth, and to reduce imbalances.
所以我今天的主旨是：我们需要齐心协力，全面了解非常规政策对本国和全球的影响及其对退出路径的影响。而首先，非常规货币政策为我们提供了时间和空间，我们必须合理利用这种时间，珍惜这种空间。全球的政策制定者——包括各国及跨国的所有政策制定者——都有责任采取各种行动来恢复稳定和增长，并减少失衡。
In that spirit, I would like to
share some of the Fund’s thinking in three main areas:
本着这一精神，我想从三大方面讲讲基金组织的想法：
1) One, how has unconventional
monetary policy, in the US and elsewhere, affected the world economy so far?
1）第一，迄今为止美国和其他国家的非常规货币政策对世界经济产生了什么影响？
2) Two, how will it affect the
world going forward, especially as one prepares for exit?
2）第二，非常规货币政策今后会如何影响世界经济，尤其是当某个国家准备退出？
3) And, three, is there a mix of
global policies that can better deliver lasting growth?
3）第三，有没有一种全球政策组合能更好地实现持续增长？
1. The
Merits of UMP So Far 1、迄今为止非常规货币政策带来的好处
The natural place to start is:
looking back, were unconventional monetary policies needed and did they help? I
know this is an open question for some. The Fund’s clear assessment, however,
is that the impact so far has been positive.
首先自然要问：回顾过去，非常规货币政策是否必要、有用？我知道对有些政策来说，这是个尚存争议的问题。但是，基金组织明确的态度是，目前为止该政策的影响都是正面的。
Why do I say that? Early in the
crisis, UMP helped prevent a collapse of the financial system and a collapse of
activity. This was the case with Quantitative Easing in the United States and
Large Scale Assets Purchases in the U.K. Later, the ECB’s Long-Term Refinancing
Operations and Outright Monetary Transactions significantly reduced the tail
risk of a Euro area breakup.
为何这样说？危机初期，非常规货币政策让金融系统和金融活动免于崩溃，如美国的量化宽松政策和英国的大规模资产购买计划。随后，欧洲央行的长期再融资操作和直接货币交易大大降低了欧元区解体的尾部风险。
Faced with financial turmoil, UMP
helped support economic activity and financial stability—both domestic and
global. This is certainly true in the initial phase of UMP, when these
objectives worked in unison.
面对金融动荡，非常规货币政策有助于支持国内及国际的经济活动和金融稳定。在实施非常规货币政策的初始阶段的确如此，那时各目标协调一致。
The Fund has been giving a good
deal more attention to the wider implications of these policies in our revamped
surveillance framework. We are tracing out the interconnections within
countries—say, between the financial sector and the real economy—and between
countries.
基金组织在改革后的监督框架中更加关注这些政策的广泛影响。我们正在分析各国内部——如金融业与实体经济之间——以及各国之间的关联性。
It is difficult to pin down the
exact ramifications of these policies with any degree of precision. There are
simply too many moving parts, and certainly many different opinions across
countries. As I said—we stand on ‘terra nova’. That said, we have to try; we do
try; and we will try harder.
从各个层级上都很难精确说明这些政策的影响。有太多变化因素，而且各国观点也不尽相同。如我之前所说，我们正处于“新领地”。也就是说，我们必须尝试。我们确实在尝试，并将更加努力。
We examined the spillovers of UMP
in a report that we released earlier this month. Estimates suggest that QE by
the Fed is likely to have reduced long-term US bond yields by over 100 basis
points prior to the market correction earlier this year, boosting world output
by more than 1 percent. I know that estimates vary. Still, we can say with some
confidence that UMP shored up activity in the face of a possible global
depression.
这个月初发布的一份报告中，我们分析了非常规货币政策的溢出效应。估算显示，年初市场调整之前，美联储的量化宽松政策可能已经使美国债券收益率减低超过100个基点，推动世界产出增长超过1%。我知道估算值之间会有差异，但我们对这个结论有一定的信心，即，非常规货币政策在全球可能出现衰退时起到了振兴经济活动的作用。
Measures of market risk tell a
similar story, reducing market uncertainty during periods of elevated financial
stress. The probability of extremely large price changes, for example, declined
across a range of markets immediately following UMP actions by the Fed.
有关市场风险的衡量指标也得出类似结论，非常规货币政策在金融压力居高不下期间减低了市场不确定性。比如，继美联储实施非常规货币政策后，各类市场发生巨大价格变动的可能性随即降低。
Obviously the major gains were in
the early phases, when the conditions were most severe. But even since UMP has
been a success. On balance all countries benefited: first from removing the
gravest risks of financial turmoil, then from the boost to growth. 初期的情况最严重，因而政策的收获显然也最多。但即使是后来的阶段，非常规货币政策也在不断取得成功。总的来说，所有国家都从中获益，起初是化解了最严峻的金融动荡风险，后来是促进了经济增长。
This may not always be the case
going forward.
但这种情形不一定会一直持续下去。 |
/1 
