3. A
Better Mix of Global Policies 3、更好的全球政策组合
That brings me to my third and
final main point: the broader policy path forward.
这是我要说的第三点，也是最后一点，即未来的政策道路更宽阔。
Monetary policy, as good as it is
assumed to be, cannot do everything, cannot provide all the answers, cannot
solve every economic problem. I do not need to convince this audience of that
point!
尽管货币政策的表现一如预期，但它并不能包揽一切、面面俱到，也无法解决所有经济问题。这一点无需我多加解释。
Fundamentally, UMP needs to be
complemented by a broader spectrum of policies that can move the global economy
forward.
从根本上说，实施非常规货币政策的同时，还需要辅之以一系列推进全球经济发展的政策。
Let me step back from that for a
moment:
我先岔开一下这个话题。
There are certainly some who feel
that the IMF has been reluctant to advise—or dare I say, has been ‘soft’
on—those countries pursuing UMP. I disagree. We have consistently emphasized,
for a number of years now, that the policy mix needs more medium-term fiscal,
financial and structural reforms. But, even without these other desirable
policies, it has been better to have than not to have UMP.
肯定有一些人认为基金组织不愿对采取非常规货币政策的国家提供建议——或者我敢说，他们认为基金组织在这些国家面前很软弱。这点我并不同意。多年来我们一直强调政策组合需要包含更多的中期财政、财务和结构性改革的内容。但即便没有这些适当的政策，有非常规货币政策也比没有强。
I do worry that all the hard work
of central banks will be wasted if not enough is done on other fronts—to adopt
the admittedly more difficult policies needed for balanced, durable, and
inclusive growth. I am talking here about all countries, not just UMP
countries.
我确实很担心，如果其他方面的力度不够，各央行的努力将付诸东流——这些方面的工作包括：努力推进实施那些难度显然极大的政策，以确保平衡、持久、包容的增长。我这里指所有国家，而非仅仅是实施非常规货币政策的国家。
While we will not know the
precise counterfactual, I would say this: UMP is providing the space for more reforms.
We should use that space wisely. UMP should not be code for Ultimately More
Procrastination!
鉴于我们无法得知确切的反事实影响，我想说：非常规货币政策为更多改革提供了空间。我们应该合理利用这些空间。非常规货币政策不应最终导致更多延误！
For UMP countries, getting the
mix right means two things.
对实施非常规货币政策的国家来说，采取正确的政策组合意味着两点。
First, push ahead with deeper
reforms to lay the foundation for durable and lasting growth. Do not waste the
space provided by UMP.
其一，推进深度改革，为可持续、持久的增长奠定基础。不要浪费非常规货币政策带来的空间。
We need this broader spectrum of
policies to sustain growth over the longer term, to ensure fiscal
sustainability, and to repair ailing banking systems.
我们需要更广泛的政策工具来支撑长期增长，确保财政可持续性，并修复境况不佳的银行系统。
The exact combination of policies
varies by country. The IMF has covered these issues at length on other
occasions, most recently in our annual economic assessments for several major
countries, so I will not rehash them.
各国的政策组合不尽相同。基金组织对此另行提供了详细说明，最近的说明详见我们对几大主要国家的年度经济评估。所以不在此赘述。
More progress on the broader
policy front can help make UMP more effective today, taming potential risks. It
can also help open the door for a smooth exit.
在更广泛的政策前沿取得进展，将使得如今的非常规货币政策更加有效，遏制潜在风险，也为顺利退出奠定基础。
Let me give you one example. Some
countries—especially in the Euro Area—still need to work on financial repair,
to unclog the financial plumbing and get credit flowing, reduce financial
fragmentation, and help make monetary policy work better.
举个例子。一些国家——尤其是欧元区国家——还需要在金融修复上付诸努力，疏通金融渠道并维持信贷流动，减轻金融分割情况，确保货币政策更好地发挥作用。
More broadly, making progress on
regulatory reform can help make the system safer. Since UMP helped save the
financial sector, it is only reasonable to ask for accelerated completion of
financial sector reform in return.
更广泛而言，监管改革的进展会让系统更安全。鉴于非常规货币政策拯救了金融业，金融业以加快完成改革作为回报也是合乎情理的。
The second responsibility is for
central banks to manage the risks from exit.
其二是央行应当管理退出风险。
Everybody in this room
understands the overriding importance of communication. Policymakers should be
clear and open about the full range of considerations that will affect UMP
decisions—both economic activity and financial stability.
在座各位都知道，政策沟通至关重要。政策制定者应当对一切将影响非常规货币政策决定的想法（关于经济活动和金融稳定性）持明确、开放态度。
It is also important to
communicate risks on both sides of the equation—the risks to recovery from
exiting too soon and the risks to financial stability from exiting too late.
针对以下两方面风险的沟通同样不可或缺，即太快退出后复苏面临的风险以及太迟退出后维持金融稳定性面临的风险。
Yes, people have legitimate
concerns that communication about financial conditions could undermine market
stability. Yet saying too little could well be worse, leading to market
surprises.
人们确实有理由担心，有关不利金融状况的沟通会削弱市场稳定性。但是，沟通太少可能更糟，会引发市场意外。
Even if managed well, exit from
UMP may well present other, non-UMP countries with an arduous obstacle course.
即便管理适当，退出非常规货币政策也可能给未实施该政策的国家带来较大困难。
So, how should the non-UMP
countries prepare and react?
那么，未实施非常规货币政策的国家应该如何准备并应对？
For the most part, they have
already been ahead of the curve in dealing with potential risks. They should
continue to follow their own lead. The precise policy actions will vary with
country circumstances.
它们大多数在应对潜在风险方面已经领先一步，并应当继续保持。具体的政策行动因各国情况而异。
Non-UMP countries need to
vigorously pursue the deeper policies that our reports have outlined for
lasting medium-term growth. Indeed, recent concerns about slowing growth
potential in emerging markets only reinforce this point.
未实施非常规货币政策的国家需要大力执行持久中期增长所需的深度政策，我们在报告中概括了这些政策。最近有关新兴市场潜在增长放缓的担忧更突出这一点的重要性。
The equally important issue,
however, is what to do if faced with renewed financial instability. This
presents serious risks to the non-UMP economies. The good news is that they
have the tools to deal with it.
然而，同样重要的一点是，如果再次出现金融不稳定，应该如何应对。这会对未实施非常规货币政策的国家带来严重风险。所幸的是，它们具备应对的工具。
Exchange rate flexibility will
help, but not at all cost. Some market intervention may help moderate exchange
rate volatility or short-term liquidity pressures.
汇率的灵活性会有所帮助，但并非要为此在所不惜。一些市场干预可能会有助于降低汇率波动或短期流动性压力。
So far, both advanced and
emerging countries have used macro- and micro-prudential measures to throw sand
in the wheels of excess—dealing with frothy credit growth or potential
financial sector vulnerabilities. In some circumstances, capital flow
management measures have been useful.
目前为止，发达国家和新兴国家均采取了宏观和微观审慎措施来限制过剩情况——应对信贷增长泡沫或金融业的潜在脆弱性。某些情况下，资本流动管理措施已取得成效。
Yet even with the best of
efforts, the dam might leak. So we need further lines of defense—lines of defense
that reflect our interdependence, our common purpose, and our mutual
responsibility for the global economy.
然而，即便已尽最大努力，纰漏也在所难免。所以我们需要巩固防线——即，相互依存、谋求共同目标以及肩负起对全球经济的共同责任。
Here, swap lines—along the lines
provided by major central banks early in the crisis—can help. For the Fund’s
part, we stand ready to provide policy advice and financial support, including
on a precautionary basis through our various instruments.
针对这一点，互换额度可以提供帮助，如危机早期主要央行提供的额度。就基金组织而言，我们随时准备提供政策建议和金融支持，包括通过多种工具提供预防性支持。
Above all, we need to all work
together, and work better together.
综上，我们要齐心协力，合作共进。
Conclusion 结论
That is the right note on which
to tie this all together.
各方需团结一致，而今正当其时。
There is scope for international
policy coordination and cooperation to improve global outcomes. No country is
an island. As I said at the outset, in today’s interconnected world, the
spillovers from domestic policies—UMP included—may well feed back to where they
began. Looking at the wider effect is in your self-interest. It is in all of
our interests.
我们有很大的空间来通过国际政策协同合作提升全球结果。没有哪个国家是孤岛。如我开始时所说，在当今这个相互联系的世界，国内政策的溢出效应——包括非常规货币政策——会很快流向发源地。让我们来研究其更广泛的影响，因为这关乎我们的自身利益，也关乎所有人的利益。
I am not suggesting that this
would be easy. Coordination is difficult to achieve in practice.
我并不是说这会很容易。实际操作中做到协同相当困难。
Not everyone agrees about the
size, or even the direction, of spillovers. Bridging or at least narrowing
these differences is an important step toward deciding the future course of
policy.
并非每个人都认同溢出效应的规模甚至方向。消除或至少缩小这些差异是决定未来政策走向的重要步骤。
We can best meet these challenges
by working openly together. Our discussion here today can help move us in the
right direction.
我们可以通过公开合作更好地迎接这些挑战，今天的讨论也会有助于我们朝正确的方向迈进。
As a forum for international
policy cooperation, the Fund can help. It is also incumbent on us to use our
surveillance to effectively support the policy decisions our member countries
face. We can delve more deeply into the policy interconnections and spillovers
among our member countries. We can offer clear analysis of what can be gained
by working together. And we can encourage policymakers to understand how their
actions fit into the global policy agenda.
作为一个国际政策合作论坛，基金组织可以提供助力。在运用监督工作有效支持成员国的政策决定方面，我们义不容辞。我们可以进一步深入研究成员国之间的政策关联和溢出效应，也可以就合作取得的成就提供明确的分析，还可以激励政策制定者了解如何让他们的行动与全球政策议程相一致。
Policies and policy coordination
are not yet where they need to be. Failing to act at the global level, with
each country playing its part, could put the global recovery at risk. With
action, however, we can place the world economy on a path of strong,
sustainable and balanced growth.
政策和政策协调尚未到位。如果不能在全球层面上采取行动，让各国发挥应有作用，全球复苏将面临风险。反之，通过采取各种行动，我们将实现世界经济的强劲、可持续、平衡增长。
The world has done enough
treading water. It is time now for policymakers to swim to the shore. Take this
as some wisdom from a former synchronized swimmer!
世界已经踏水太久，政策制定者是时候上岸了。这是我，一名前花样游泳选手，所悟出的道理。
Thank you.
谢谢！ |
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