国际基金组织副总裁奈梅特·沙菲克在牛津关于“智能治理”的演讲（中英对照）

英文版：Smart Governance.doc

中文版：智能治理.doc

Smart Governance: Solutions for Today’s Global Economy

智能治理：当前全球经济问题的解决方案

 

Nemat Shafik, Deputy Managing Director, International Monetary Fund

基金组织副总裁奈梅特·沙菲克

 

Oxford, United Kingdom

英国伦敦

 

December 5, 2013

2013年12月5日

 

Good afternoon! I am so pleased to be here with you today, where I spent very happy years earning my DPhil in economics. This is a magical place, full of beauty and clever people. My only regret is that I left too soon.

 

大家下午好！很高兴今天在这里与各位见面。我曾在这里度过非常快乐的时光，并获得经济学博士学位。这是一个神奇之地，这里的人们美丽而聪慧。唯一的遗憾是，我太早离开了这里。

 

Fortunately, my good friends Ngaire Woods and Max Watson have invited me to return to give the Annual Global Economic Governance Lecture. Let me outline the main points I plan to make today.

 

幸运的是，我的好朋友Ngaire Woods 和Max Watson邀请我重回故地，就年度全球经济治理问题座谈。我想概括地说一下今天打算谈的要点。

 

Making the case for smart governance

为什么需要智能治理

 

Global economic crises tend to reignite discussions of global governance and international cooperation. The recent crisis has been no different. This is because crises lay bare the shortcomings of existing international rules and institutions.

 

全球经济危机往往会引发新一轮全球治理和国际合作问题的讨论。最近的危机也不例外。这是因为危机让现有国际规则和制度的缺陷暴露无遗。

 

We have seen how weaknesses and failures in banks and capital markets can spread through the international financial system. The same is true for other challenges faced by the world today, whether we are talking about climate change, nuclear weapons proliferation, or health pandemics. What happens anywhere affects everybody—and increasingly so.

 

我们已经看到银行和资本市场的缺陷如何可以通过国际金融体系蔓延。当今世界面临的其他挑战也是如此，不论是气候变化、核武器扩散、或流行性疾病。任何地方发生的事情会影响到每一个人，而且日益如此。

 

So it is pretty clear that the world needs more, not less, international coordination and cooperation. But how to achieve this goal? In a recent article, the FT’s Martin Wolf discussed the importance of global public goods and how to provide them. “The states on which humanity depends to provide these goods, from security to management of climate, are unpopular, overstretched and at odds. We need to think about how to manage such a world. It is going to take extraordinary creativity.”

 

因此，很明显，世界需要更多而不是更少的国际协调和合作。但是，如何才能实现这一目标呢？金融时报的Martin Wolf在最近一篇文章中讨论了全球公共产品的重要性，以及如何提供这些产品。“人类提供这些产品（从安全到气候管理）所依赖的规则不受人欢迎、过分紧张且不一致。我们需要思考如何管理这样一个世界。这要求有非凡的创造性”。

 

Martin is right. We need to be creative if we want to make progress. We need smart governance if we want solutions that work for today’s global economy.

 

Martin是对的。如果要取得进展，我们必须有创造性。如果想找出今天全球经济问题的解决方案，我们需要有智能治理。

 

I would like to focus today on three related topics. First, I will briefly touch upon the historical relationship between crises on the one hand, and governance reforms and policy coordination on the other hand. Second, I will discuss the response in terms of governance reforms and policy coordination that we have seen in the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2008. Finally, I will close my talk by sharing with you some reflections on how global economic governance might evolve going forward—how “smart governance” may provide the right balance between flexibility and effectiveness that the world needs to manage globalization.

 

今天我想集中谈三个相关主题。首先，一方面，简要谈谈历次危机之间的历史关系，另一方面，治理改革和政策协调。还将讨论2008年金融危机之后采取的治理改革和政策协调。最后，与大家分享我对未来全球经济治理可能如何演变的想法，“智能治理”如何可以在“灵活性”和“有效性”之间取得合理的平衡，这两“性”是我们管理全球化所不可或缺的。

 

A world in transition

转轨中的世界

 

The global economy is in transition. Global economic power is shifting from west, to east and south. Emerging and developing economies already make up more than 50 percent of global GDP (on a PPP basis)—ten years from now this number is expected to increase to 64 percent.

 

全球经济正处在转轨之中。全球经济力量正在从西方向东方和南方转移。新兴市场和发展中经济体占全球GDP的比重已经超过50%（按购买力平价计算），再过十年，预计此比重将提高到64%。

 

At the same time, trade and financial linkages have risen spectacularly. Cross-border bank claims grew from $6 to over $30 trillion between 1990 and 2008, and global merchandise exports of goods and services increased from $4 trillion to $20 trillion. While these numbers contracted somewhat in subsequent years due to the global crisis, the growth rates for the past 20 or 30 years are still impressive.

 

同时，贸易和金融联系大幅度增加。1990年至2008年之间，跨境银行债权从6万亿美元上升到30万亿美元以上，全球货物和服务出口从4万亿美元增至20万亿美元。虽然这些数字在随后的几年由于全球金融危机有所收缩，但是，过去20年或30年的增长率仍然非同寻常。

 

On the production side, global supply chains have become the norm rather than the exception. A typical manufacturing company today relies on inputs from more than 35 different contractors from around the world—for some companies, such as car and airplane manufacturers, this number can range in the tens of thousands.

 

在生产方面，全球供应链已经成为一种常态，而不是例外。如今一个典型的制造企业的投入品由世界各地35个以上的合同商提供。有一些公司，如汽车和飞机制造商，所依赖的合同商可能数以万计。

 

With the sharp increase in interconnectedness and the growing diffusion of economic power, it would have been reasonable to expect a simultaneous transformation and expansion of global governance. In theory, demand for global governance should have increased with rising levels of global integration in order to manage the rules of the game and reduce negative spillover effects.

 

随着相互关联性日益提高和经济实力日益扩散，全球治理同时发生转变和扩充是预料之中。从理论上讲，随着全球一体化程度提高，对全球治理的需求也会增加，从而更好地管理游戏规则，减少负面溢出效应。

 

But as we all know, global governance issues were on the backburner in the run-up to the financial crisis. Indeed, against the background of high growth and low output volatility—what has been called “the Great Moderation”—observers even wondered whether global governance was a concept of the past, and institutions such as the IMF, World Bank and WTO superfluous.

 

但是，正如各位所知，至到金融危机发生，全球治理问题从未引起足够的重视。事实上，在高增长和低产出波动（被称为“平稳增长”）的背景下，观察人员甚至怀疑全球治理是否过时，一些机构如基金组织、世界银行和世界贸易组织是否多余。

 

Only in 2008, when a disruption in a relatively small segment of the U.S. financial system spilled into distant markets and countries, and morphed into a full-fledged global financial crisis, it became clear that there had been an undersupply of global governance in the years leading up to the crisis.

 

到2008年，美国金融系统的小部分出现问题，遥远的市场和国家都受到波及，并演变成了一场全面的全球金融危机，很明显，在危机发生之前的几年里，全球治理是不充分的。

 

Crises as opportunity

危机同时也提供了机遇

 

Five years after the onslaught of the global financial crisis, economic governance remains at the center of the policy debate. I would argue that this is no surprise, given that, historically, there has been a symbiotic relationship between crises and the evolution of governance.

 

全球金融危机冲击过后五年，经济治理一直是政策辩论的中心。我认为，这毫不奇怪，因为，从历史来看，在危机和治理演变之间存在一种共生关系。

 

Granted, governance is often seen as evolving slowly and in an incremental manner and at a stately pace, while crises are intrinsically disruptive and revolutionary. However, as history has repeatedly shown, crisis often bring out the shortcomings of existing governance arrangements, while the fear of recurrence can galvanize support for reform.

 

诚然，治理通常以缓慢、渐进和严肃的方式演变，而危机在本质上是破坏性和革命性的。然而，历史一再证明，危机往往会暴露治理安排的缺陷，而对危机复发的担心可以激发对改革的支持。

 

For instance, in the wake of World War I, the League of Nations was created to promote international cooperation and achieve international peace and security, while experiences of hyperinflation in the 1920s motivated efforts to restore the gold standard. Similarly, the Great Depression and World War II triggered much of our current architecture of global governance, with the creation of the United Nations, IMF, World Bank, and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, now the World Trade Organization. The traumatic experience of World War II also provided impetus for political and economic integration in Europe.

 

例如，在第一次世界大战之后，成立了国际联盟，以促进国际合作，实现国际和平和安全，而20世纪20年代发生的恶性通胀推动了恢复金本位制的努力。同样，大萧条和第二次世界大战促使了目前全球治理架构大部分内容的出台、以及联合国、基金组织、世界银行和关贸总协定和贸易（现在的世界贸易组织）的创建。二战的惨痛经历也为实现欧洲政治和经济一体化提供了动力。

 

In the United States, the financial crisis of 1907 paved the way for the creation of the Federal Reserve, while the bitter experience of the Great Depression led to a major overhaul of financial regulation, with the passage of the Glass-Steagall Act in 1933, which separated commercial and investment banking, and remained in place for more than sixty years. More recently, the regional currency swap arrangements among ASEAN members known as Chiang Mai Initiative were created in the aftermath of the Asian crisis.

 

在美国， 1907年的金融危机为创建美联储铺平了道路，大萧条的痛苦经历导致对金融监管进行重大改革，以及在1933年通过格拉斯-斯蒂格尔法案，让商业银行与投资银行业务分离，这种分离保持了60多年。亚洲危机之后，东盟成员国之间建立了区域货币互换安排（被称为清迈倡议）。

 

As with similar situations in the past, the global financial crisis of 2008 imposed large costs and hardship on affected countries. However, from a perspective of economic governance, it has also provided a window of opportunity to advance reforms and strengthen policy coordination. Did we manage to not let a good crisis go to waste? (a quote associated with Rahm Emanuel, President Obama’s former Chief of Staff, but like all great quotes was said by Churchill first). Let me provide a brief overview of what we have achieved in the past five years before looking at the gaps that remain.

 

与以往情况类似，2008年的全球金融危机给受创国造成巨大的成本和困难。然而，从经济治理的角度看，它也为推进改革和加强政策协调提供了一个机会窗口。我们能让危机白白发生吗？（引述奥巴马总统前办公厅主任Rahm Emanuel的话，但是，与所有伟大格言都有更早出处一样，这句话最早是丘吉尔说的）。首先让我总结一下在过去五年所取得的成绩，然后看看还存在些差距。