国际货币基金组织总裁拉加德在伦敦发表2014年汀伯比演讲（中英对照）

英文版：A New Multilateralism for the 21st Century.doc

中文版：21世纪新的多边主义.doc

A New Multilateralism for the 21st Century: the Richard Dimbleby Lecture

21世纪新的多边主义：理查德•汀伯比演讲

 

Christine Lagarde, Managing Director, International Monetary Fund

国际货币基金组织总裁克里斯蒂娜·拉加德

 

London, February 3, 2014

2014年2月3日，伦敦

 

Good evening. It is a great honor to be invited to deliver this year’s Dimbleby Lecture, and I would like to thank the BBC and the Dimbleby family for so kindly inviting me—and especially David Dimbleby for his warm words of introduction.

 

各位晚上好。非常荣幸应邀做今年的汀伯比演讲，我要感谢英国广播公司和汀伯比一家的盛情邀请，还要特别感谢大卫·汀伯比热情的介绍辞。

 

This evening, I would like to talk about the future. Before looking ahead, however, I would like to look back—for the clues to the future can often be read from the tea leaves of the past.

 

今晚，我想谈谈未来。不过，在展望未来之前，我想回顾一下往昔——正所谓前事不忘，后事之师。

 

I invite you to cast your minds back to the early months of 1914, exactly a century ago. Much of the world had enjoyed long years of peace, and giant leaps in scientific and technological innovation had led to path-breaking advances in living standards and communications. There were few barriers to trade, travel, or the movement of capital. The future was full of potential.

 

请大家回忆一下整整一个世纪之前，1914 年初的情景。世界多数地方维持了多年的和平，科学和技术革新的飞跃带来了生活水平和通信能力的巨大提升。当时，贸易、旅行和资本流动的壁垒很少。前路充满了希望。

 

Yet, 1914 was the gateway to thirty years of disaster—marked by two world wars and the Great Depression. It was the year when everything started to go wrong. What happened?

 

但是，1914 年是之后三十年大灾难（两次世界大战和大萧条）的起始年。正是在这一年，一切事情都开始往错误的方向走去。到底发生了什么？

 

What happened was that the birth of the modern industrial society brought about massive dislocation. The world was rife with tension—rivalry between nations, upsetting the traditional balance of power, and inequality between the haves and have-nots, whether in the form of colonialism or the sunken prospects of the uneducated working classes.

 

当时，现代工业社会的诞生带来了大规模的社会错位。各种紧张关系此起彼伏——国家间的敌对打乱了传统的力量平衡，有产者与无产者的不平等（不论是体现在殖民主义的冲突，还是体现在未受教育劳动阶级的悲惨前途）愈发严重。

 

By 1914, these imbalances had toppled over into outright conflict. In the years to follow, nationalist and ideological thinking led to an unprecedented denigration of human dignity. Technology, instead of uplifting the human spirit, was deployed for destruction and terror. Early attempts at international cooperation, such as the League of Nations, fell flat. By the end of the Second World War, large parts of the world lay in ruins.

 

到了1914年，这些不平衡因素终于激化演变成了直接的战争。之后，民族主义者和意识形态之争造成了史无前例的人类尊严的堕落。科技不但没有提升人类精神，而且成为造成毁灭与恐惧的工具。国际合作方面的初步努力，如国联，也宣告失败。二战结束时，全世界很多地方成为了废墟。

 

I now invite you to consider a second turning point—1944. In the summer of that year, the eminent economist, John Maynard Keynes, and a delegation of British officials, embarked on a fateful journey across the Atlantic. The crossing was risky—the world was still at war and enemy ships still prowled the waters. Keynes himself was in poor health.

 

我还想请大家回忆一下另一个转折点——1944年。是年夏天，著名的经济学家约翰•梅纳德•凯恩斯和英国官员代表团踏上了一次横跨大西洋的具有划时代意义的旅程。此次跨洋旅行是有风险的，当时的世界仍弥漫着战火的硝烟，海上仍有敌人的船舰。凯恩斯本人的健康状况也不佳。

 

But he had an appointment with destiny—and he was not going to miss it.

 

但是，这是一次与命运的风云际会，他不准备失约。

 

The destination was the small town of Bretton Woods in the hills of New Hampshire, in the northeastern United States. His purpose was to meet with his counterparts from other countries. Their plan was nothing less than the reconstruction of the global economic order.

 

此行的终点是美国东北部的新罕布什尔州的丘陵小镇布雷顿森林。他的目的是约见来自其他国家的同行。他们的计划是重建全球经济秩序。

 

The 44 nations gathering at Bretton Woods were determined to set a new course—based on mutual trust and cooperation, on the principle that peace and prosperity flow from the font of cooperation, on the belief that the broad global interest trumps narrow self-interest.

 

在布雷顿森林集会的44个国家决心在相互信任和合作的基础上，本着合作可以带来和平和繁荣的原则，以及全球利益胜过狭隘的自我利益的这一信念，开辟出一条新的道路。

 

This was the original multilateral moment—70 years ago. It gave birth to the United Nations, the World Bank, and the IMF—the institution that I am proud to lead.

 

这就是最初的多边时刻，发生在70年前。在这一伟大时刻诞生了联合国、世界银行和我们的基金组织——能成为这样一个机构的首脑令我无比自豪。

 

The world we inherited was forged by these visionary gentlemen—Lord Keynes and his generation. They raised the phoenix of peace and prosperity from the ashes of anguish and antagonism. We owe them a huge debt of gratitude.

 

我们继承的这个世界是由这些充满远见卓识的绅士——凯恩斯勋爵及其同代人建立的。正是他们，在痛苦和敌对的残垣断壁中唤起了和平与繁荣的凤凰的涅槃重生。对于他们，我们无比崇敬。

 

Because of their work, we have seen unprecedented economic and financial stability over the past seven decades. We have seen diseases eradicated, conflict diminished, child mortality reduced, life expectancy increased, and hundreds of millions lifted out of poverty.

 

正是他们的努力，在过去70年里，我们获得了史无前例的经济与金融稳定。一些疾病被根除、战争冲突逐渐减少、儿童死亡率降低、人均预期寿命延长、亿万人口摆脱了贫困。

 

Today, however, we are coming out of the Great Recession, the worst economic crisis—and the great test—of our generation. Thanks to their legacy of multilateralism—international cooperation—we did not slip into another Great Depression that would have brought misery across the world yet again. We all passed the test—rejecting protectionism, reaffirming cooperation.

 

然而，我们现今仍在努力走出大衰退，这个我们这代人所经历的最严重经济危机和所面对的最艰巨挑战。由于多边主义的历史传承，即国际合作，我们躲开了另一场大萧条，从而使世界避免了又一次的浩劫。我们禁受住了这次考验，没有因为挫折而倒向保护主义，再次坚定了合作的意志。

 

Yet there will be many more tests ahead. We are living through a time every bit as momentous as that faced by our forefathers a century ago. Once again, the global economy is changing beyond recognition, as we move from the industrial age to the hyperconnected digital age.

 

但是，未来还有更多的考验。我们所经历的时代，其重要性丝毫不亚于我们的先辈在一个世纪前的所在时代。全球经济又一次出现了我们始料未及的变化，我们正在从工业时代走向超级联结的数字时代。

 

Once again, we will be defined by how we respond to these changes.

 

历史又走到了这样一种时刻：我们的是非功过，取决于我们对这些变化的处理方式。

 

As we look ahead toward mid-century, toward the world that our children and grandchildren will inherit from us, we need to ask the question: what kind of world do we want that to be—and how can we achieve it?

 

在展望本世纪中叶，畅想我们的孩子和孙子从我们手里继承的世界时，我们要问自己的问题是：我们希望那时有一个什么样的世界，怎样才能实现这样的世界？

 

As Shakespeare says in Julius Caesar: “On such a full sea are we now afloat, and we must take the current when it serves, or lose our ventures.”

 

正如莎士比亚在《凯撒大帝》中所说的：“人间大小事，有其潮汐；把握涨潮，则万事无阻；错过了，一生的航程，就困于浅滩与苦楚。”

 

This evening, I would like to talk about two broad currents that will dominate the coming decades—increasing tensions in global interconnections and in economic sustainability. I would then like to make a proposal that builds on the past and is fit for the future: a strengthened framework for international cooperation.

 

今晚，我想谈谈将主导未来几十年的两大涌流——即不断加剧的全球互联性紧张关系以及全球经济持续发展紧张关系然后，我会借鉴以往的经验教训提出一个着眼未来的解决方案：一个加固的国际合作框架。

 

In short, a new multilateralism for the 21st century.

 

简言之，是21世纪新的多边主义。