国际货币基金组织总裁拉加德在伦敦发表2014年汀伯比演讲（中英对照）

Tensions in global interconnections

全球互联性的紧张关系

I will start with the first major current—tensions in global interconnections, between a world that is simultaneously coming closer together and drifting further apart.

首先，我要说的是第一大涌流，全球互联性的紧张关系，即，世界日益紧密的趋势与渐行渐远趋势之间的矛盾。

By “coming together”, I mean the breakneck pattern of integration and interconnectedness that defines our time. It is really the modern counterpart of what our ancestors went through in the fateful years leading up to 1914.

所谓“日益紧密”，是指我们这个时代迥异于其他时期的鲜明的一体化和相互联结的特征。实际上，这也正是我们的先辈在1914年之前的时代所经历的世界大格局的现代版本。

Just look at the great linking of the global economy over the past few decades.

的确，全球经济在过去几十年的高度相联就是明证。

For one thing, world trade has grown exponentially. We are now in a world of integrated supply chains, where more than half of total manufactured imports, and more than 70 percent of total service imports, are intermediate goods or services. A typical manufacturing company today uses inputs from more than 35 different contractors across the world.

例如，世界贸易呈现指数级增长。目前世界的供应链高度一体化，其中制造品进口的一半以上及服务总进口的70%是中间产品或中间服务。目前，一个典型的制造企业使用的投入品来自世界各地35个以上的不同承包商。

Financial links between countries have also grown sharply. In the two decades before the crisis in 2008, international bank lending—as a share of world GDP—rose by 250 percent. And we should expect this to rise further in the future, as more and more countries dive into the financial nexus of the global economy.

国家之间的金融联系也急剧上升。在2008年金融危机发生前的二十年里，国际银行贷款占GDP的比例提高了250%。随着更多国家加入全球经济的金融链条，此比例还会上升。

We are also living through a communications revolution. It has produced a starburst of interconnections, with information traveling at lightning speed from limitless points of origin. The world has become a hum of interconnected voices and a hive of interlinked lives.

我们还在经历一场通信革命。由于信息可以从无限的起始点以闪电般的速度传输，信息革命产生了互连星爆。世界成为了一种各种声音互相关联的发声体，成为了一种人们生活相互关联的组织体。

Today, 3 billion people are connected to each other on the internet. Three million emails are sent each second. There are almost as many mobile devices as people on the planet, and the “mobile mindset” is deeply embedded in all regions of the world. In fact, the highest rates of mobile penetration are in Africa and Asia.

今天，有三十亿人口通过互联网联系。每一秒有三百万封电子邮件被发送。移动设备数与地球上的人口数几乎相同，“移动观念”深深植根于世界所有地区。事实上，非洲和亚洲的移动电话普及率是最高的。

Back in 1953, when people tuned into the coronation of Queen Elizabeth II, their experience was mediated essentially by one voice—the masterful Richard Dimbleby, whom we honor today. In contrast, when Prince George arrived last summer, his birth was heralded by more than 25,000 tweets a minute!

早在1953年，当人们收听英国女王伊丽莎白二世加冕礼时，信息基本上由一个声音在传播，即今天我们纪念的理查德•汀伯比大师。与此相比，当乔治王子去年夏天出生时，每分钟会发出25,000多个相关推文！

With such a dizzying pace of change, we can sympathize with Violet Crawley, Downton Abbey’s countess, who wondered whether the telephone was “an instrument of communication or torture!”

这样的变化速度令人目不暇接，我们终于可以理解当年的维奥莱特·克劳利（《唐顿庄园》中古怪的太伯爵夫人）的话了——她疑惑电话到底是“沟通工具，还是刑具”。

This brave new world—this hyperconnected world—offers immense hope and promise.

这个勇敢的新世界，这个超级互联的世界，给我们提供了无限的希望和机遇。

Stronger trade and financial connections can bring tangible benefits to millions of people—through higher growth and greater convergence of living standards. The dream of eliminating extreme poverty is within our reach.

强劲的贸易和金融联系可以给很多人带来好处，如增长提高、生活水平加快趋同步伐。实现消除极端贫困的梦想也因此真正有机会实现。

The communications revolution too can be a potent force for good. It can empower people, unleash creativity, and spur change. Think about how twitter messages helped to galvanize the participants in the Arab Spring, or how social media carrying the message of Malala in Pakistan pricked the conscience of the entire world.

通信革命也能成为一股强大的正面力量。它可以给予人们力量，发挥创造力，推动变革。回想一下推特信息如何帮助激励了阿拉伯之春的参与者，报道巴基斯坦少女马拉拉故事的社交媒体如何唤起了全世界的良知。

It is not all bright skies, however. When linkages are deep and dense, they become hard to disentangle. In such an interwoven labyrinth, even the tiniest tensions can be amplified, echoing and reverberating across the world—often in an instant, often with unpredictable twists and turns. The channels that bring convergence can also bring contagion.

然而，金无足赤，凡事皆有弊。当联系非常紧密时，它们变得难以分解。在这种复杂交织的迷宫里，即使是最微小的紧张关系都可能被放大，在世界各地产生回响，而且这种情况往往在瞬间发生，经常会导致不可预知的变数。产生趋同效应的渠道同样也能导致传染效应。

Because of this, the global economy can become even more prone to instability. If not managed well, financial integration can make crises more frequent and more damaging. Consider, for example, where and how the recent global financial crisis began—in the mortgage markets of suburban America—and spread all around the world.

正因为如此，全球经济会更易于陷入不稳定。如果管理不善，金融一体化可能导致危机发生更加频繁，并更具破坏性。举个例子，此次全球金融危机竟然是从美国郊区的抵押贷款市场开始，一直蔓延到全世界。

The communications revolution too has a dark side. It can sow discord, instill factionalism, and spread confusion. Instead of an online forum for ideas and expression, we could have a virtual mob or a global platform to promote intolerance or hatred. Instead of a beautiful symphony, we could have an ugly cacophony.

通信革命也有不好的一面。它可以引发争论、灌输宗派主义和传播混乱。它可能成为一个网络暴民聚集地或一个加剧偏狭或仇恨的全球平台，而不是一个让人们表达思想和想法的在线论坛。我们听到的可能是丑陋的杂音，而不是优美的交响曲。

So the key challenge for us in all this will be to magnify the good and diminish the bad.

因此，我们面临的重大挑战是发扬好的一面，减少坏的一面。

If managing the great “coming together” were not difficult enough, it will be further complicated by the other current that I mentioned: the tendency for the world to grow further apart, even as it draws closer together.

管理这种宏大规模的“日益紧密”进程本身就已十分困难，但我前面提到的另一股涌流让其更加复杂：即世界虽然日益紧密，但同时也渐行渐远。

This is a paradox. What do I mean? I mean the diffusion of power across the world—toward more diverse geographical regions and more diverse global stakeholders. Unlike with integration, our forefathers experienced nothing like this. It is a defining feature of our hyperconnected age.

这是一个悖论。这是什么意思呢？我的意思是，力量在整个世界越发扩散，分散到更多的地理区域和更多的全球利益相关者。与一体化的潮流不一样的是，这个新趋势也是我们的先辈所未曾遭遇的。它是我们这个超级联结时代的迥异特征。

One of the major megatrends of our time is the shift in global power from west to east, and from north to south—from a few to a handful, to a myriad.

我们这个时代的主要大趋势是全球权力正在从西方转向东方，从北方转向南方——从少数人到大群人，进而到亿兆民众。

Fifty years ago, the emerging markets and developing economies accounted for about a quarter of world GDP. Today, it is half, and rising rapidly—very likely to two-thirds within the next decade.

五十年前，新兴市场和发展中经济体约占全球GDP的四分之一，如今占到一半，且其比重还在迅速上升，很可能在下一个十年占到全球GDP的三分之二。

The diffusion of power also goes beyond country relationships, extending to a whole host of networks and institutions that inhabit the fabric of global society.

权力的扩散还超越了国家关系，扩展到全球社会结构中的一系列网络和机构。

Think about the rising nexus of non-government organizations, which can use the communications revolution to extend their reach and amplify the voice of civil society. In just 20 years, the number of these groups associated with the United Nations rose from 700 to nearly 4000.

想一想非政府组织网络的崛起，它们可以利用通讯革命扩大影响范围，提高民间社会的声音。在短短的20年时间里，与联合国有联系的这些团体数目从700个上升到近4000个。

Think about the growing power of multinational corporations, who now control two-thirds of world trade. According to some research, 12 multinational corporations now sit among the world’s top 100 economic bodies in terms of sheer size.

想想跨国公司不断提高的实力，它们现在控制着世界贸易的三分之二。一些研究认为，就规模而言，目前世界排名前100位的经济实体中有12家是跨国公司。

Think about powerful cities—31 of them are also on that list of the top 100. And they continue to grow. By 2030, about 60 percent of the world’s population will live in cities.

还有那些大城市，有31个也在100 强的名单上。它们在继续扩张。到2030年，世界人口的约60%将居住在城市。

Think also about the rising aspirations of citizens who feel increasingly part, yet not quite adjusted to, our interconnected “global village”. By 2030, the global middle class could top 5 billion, up from 2 billion today. These people will inevitably demand higher living standards, as well as greater freedom, dignity, and justice. Why should they settle for less?

人们越来越感觉到自己成为相互联系的“地球村”的一部分，但却没有完全适应。到2030年，全球中产阶级将达到50 亿，今天是20亿。这些人们将必然要求更高的生活水平、更大程度的自由、尊严和公平。他们有什么理由要退而求其次呢？

This will be a more diverse world of increasing demands and more dispersed power. In such a world, it could be much harder to get things done, to reach consensus on issues of global importance.

世界将会更加多元化，需求将增加，权力将更加分散。在这样的世界中，要把事情做成很难，就全球重大问题达成共识更难。

The risk is of a world that is more integrated—economically, financially, and technologically—but more fragmented in terms of power, influence, and decision-making. This can lead to more indecision, impasse, and insecurity—the temptations of extremism—and it requires new solutions.

我们的风险在于，这是一个在经济、金融和科技方面更加一体化的世界，但同时，这也是一个在权力、影响力和决策方面更加分散的世界。这会导致更多的决断困难、僵局和不安定——如极端主义的倾向——因此也需要用新的方法予以解决。