国际货币基金组织总裁拉加德在伦敦发表2014年汀伯比演讲（中英对照）

Tensions in economic sustainability

经济持续发展的紧张关系

We will also need solutions for the second broad current that will dominate the next few decades—tensions in economic sustainability, between staying strong and slowing down.

我们还需妥善处理主导未来几十年经济持续发展的第二大涌流——经济持续发展的紧张关系，即，经济强劲增长和减缓之间的紧张关系。

Of course, the immediate priority for growth is to get beyond the financial crisis, which began six years ago and is still with us, as the markets remind us these days. This requires a sustained and coordinated effort to deal with problems that still linger—a legacy of high private and public debt, weak banking systems, and structural impediments to competitiveness and growth—which have left us with unacceptably high levels of unemployment.

当然，增长的当务之急是走出六年前开始的、至今仍挥之不去（最近的市场情况就是一个明证）的金融危机。这要求我们通过持续和协调的努力解决目前的既有问题——居高不下的私人和公共债务、不健全的银行系统，以及不利于竞争力和增长的结构性阻碍因素——正是这些问题导致了无法接受的高失业率。

You are used to the IMF talking about these issues, I know. Tonight, however, I want to set these issues in the context of longer-term impediments. Three in particular—demographic shifts, environmental degradation, and income inequality. As with global interconnections, some of these problems would look familiar to our ancestors—rising inequality, for example. But others are new and novel—such as pressures on the environment.

我知道，你们已经习惯了基金组织谈论这些问题。但今晚，我结合一些长期阻碍因素来讨论这些问题。尤其是，人口变化、环境恶化和收入不平等。与全球关联的问题一样，我们的先辈也曾面对过类似的上述部分问题，如不平等性加剧。但是，另一些问题则是全新的，如环境压力等。

Demographics

人口变化

Let me start with demographics. Over the next three decades, the world’s population will get much larger and much older.

首先从人口变化谈起。在接下来的三十年里，世界人口将更多，年龄会更大。

In 30 years time, there will be about two billion more people on the planet, including three quarters of a billion people over the age of 65. By 2020, for the first time ever, there will be more old people over 65 than children under 5.

在未来30年的时间里，地球上会增加 20亿人，其中7.5亿人口将超过65岁。到2020年，65岁以上老人的数目将首次超过5岁以下儿童的数目。

The geographical distribution will also change—young populations in regions like Africa and South Asia will increase sharply, while Europe, China, and Japan will age and shrink. In the coming decades, we expect India to surpass China, and Nigeria to surpass the United States, in terms of population. And both China and India will start aging in the near future.

地区分布也将发生变化，非洲和南亚地区的年轻人口将大幅增加，而欧洲、中国和日本的人口将老龄化和减少。在未来几十年，我们预计印度人口将超过中国，尼日利亚将超过美国。中国和印度在不久的未来都将进入老龄化。

This can create problems on both ends of the demographic spectrum—for youthful countries and for graying countries.

这将给处在人口统计两端的国家，即人口年轻的国家和老龄化的国家带来问题。

Right now, the young countries are seeing a “youth bulge”, with almost three billion people—half the global population—under 25. This could prove a boon or a bane, a demographic dividend or a demographic time bomb.

眼下，人口年轻的国家正在出现“青少年人口暴增”，几乎有 30亿人（占全球人口的一半）在 25岁以下。这既可以是福音，也可以是祸端，它可能成为人口红利，也可能成为人口定时炸弹。

A youthful population is certainly fertile ground for innovation, dynamism, and creativity. Yet everything will depend on generating enough jobs to satisfy the aspirations of the rising generation.

年轻的人口构成肯定为创新、活力和创造力提供了沃土。然而，一切都将取决于创造足够的就业机会，满足年轻一代的愿望。

This calls for a single-minded focus on improving education—and, in particular, on the potentially massive effects of technological change on employment. Looking ahead, factors such as the internet revolution, the rise of smart machines, and the increasing high-tech component of products will have dramatic implications for jobs and the way we work. Yet governments are not thinking about this in a sufficiently strategic or proactive way.

这需要我们专心改善教育，特别是，要关注技术变革将对就业产生的潜在巨大影响。展望未来，互联网革命、智能机器的兴起，以及产品的高科技成份日益提高都会给就业和工作方式带来巨大影响。然而，政府尚未足够战略性地或主动地考虑这个问题。

Aging countries will have different problems, of course. They will face slowing growth precisely at a time when they need to take care of a retiring generation—people who have contributed to society and expect, as part of the social contract, to be provided with decent social services as they move into their twilight years. This too can create tensions.

老龄化国家面临的肯定是截然不同的难题。经济放缓的时点将与一代人走向退休的时点重合——退休一代人口曾为社会作出贡献，因此期望作为社会契约的一部分，在他们进入晚年时会获得足够的社会服务。这也可能造成紧张关系。

Migration from young to old countries might help to release some pressure at both ends. Yet it could also inflame tensions—the brain drain could sap productive potential from source countries and a sudden influx of people could erode social cohesion in host countries and fuel nationalism. Yes, migration can help, but it must be managed well.

年轻化国家的人口移居老龄化国家可能有助于减缓这两类国家的压力。然而，这也可能会加剧紧张局势，人才流失可能会削弱来源国的生产潜力，人口的突然涌入也可能削弱东道国的社会凝聚力，激起民族主义。是的，移民可以起到有益作用，但一定要处理好。

Environmental degradation

环境恶化

So demographics is one potential long-term obstacle. A second is environmental degradation, the newest and greatest challenge of our era. We all know what is at stake here. More people with more prosperity will stretch our natural environment to the limit.

因此，人口变化是一个潜在的长期障碍。另一个是环境恶化，这也是我们这个时代的一个最新和最严重的难题。我们都知道这其间的利害关系。更多的人口和更多的发展将导致对自然环境的使用达到极限。

We can expect growing pressure points around water, food, and energy scarcity as the century progresses. By 2030, almost half of the world’s population will live in regions of high water stress or shortage.

可以想象，在本世纪向前推进的过程中，水、食物和能源的稀缺压力将越来越大。到2030年，世界人口的近一半将生活在供水压力很大或水短缺的地区。

Hovering over all of this is the merciless march of climate change. Because of humanity’s hubris, the natural environment, which we need to sustain us, is instead turning against us.

抛开上述所有不谈，我们还要面对残酷的气候变化。因为人类的傲慢，我们一直所赖以生存的自然环境正在给予我们惩罚。

Make no mistake, it is the world’s most vulnerable people who will suffer most from the convulsions of climate. For example, some estimates suggest that forty percent of the land now used to grow maize in sub-Saharan Africa will no longer be able to support that crop by the 2030s. This will have hugely disruptive implications for African livelihoods and lives.

毫无疑问，因为气候变化而遭受最重打击的恰恰是世界上最脆弱的人口。例如，一些估计表明，到21世纪30年代，目前在撒哈拉以南非洲地区用于种植玉米土地的40%将不再能够支持该作物。这将对非洲人民的生存和生活产生严重不利影响。

A few years back, Prince Charles gave this very Dimbleby lecture. He used the occasion to make an impassioned plea to respect the natural law of ecological sustainability. “In failing the earth,” he said, “we are failing humanity”.

几年前，查尔斯王子曾在此发表汀伯比演讲。他借机做了慷慨激昂的呼吁，呼吁人们尊重生态可持续发展的自然法则。他说：“抛弃地球就是抛弃人性。”

The bad news is that we are getting perilously close to the tipping point. The good news is that it is not too late to turn the tide—even with rising seas.

坏消息是，我们正在危险地接近倾覆的临界点。好消息是，即使浪潮汹涌，我们仍然有机会扭转乾坤。

Overcoming climate change is obviously a gigantic project with a multitude of moving parts. I would just like to mention one component of it—making sure that people pay for the damage they cause. Why is this aspect—getting the prices right—so important? Because it will help to reduce the harm today and spur investment in the low-carbon technologies of tomorrow.

克服气候变化显然是一项涉及各种活动组件的巨大工程。我只想提其中的一个因素，即确保人们为其所造成的损害付出代价。为什么正确定价如此重要？因为这将有助于减少今天的损害，刺激将来对低碳技术的投资。 

Phasing out energy subsidies and getting energy prices right must also be part of the solution. Think about it: we are subsidizing the very behavior that is destroying our planet, and on an enormous scale. Both direct subsidies and the loss of tax revenue from fossil fuels ate up almost $2 trillion in 2011—this is about the same as the total GDP of countries like Italy or Russia! The worst part is that these subsidies mostly benefit the relatively affluent, not the poor. Reducing subsidies and properly taxing energy use can be a win-win prospect for people and for the planet.

逐步取消能源补贴、实现能源合理定价必须成为解决方案的一部分。想想看：我们正在为摧毁地球的行为提供规模巨大的补贴。油气方面的直接补贴以及税收损失，在2011年消耗了将近两万亿美元，这相当于意大利或俄罗斯的GDP总量！最糟糕的是，这些补贴的主要受益者是那些富人，而不是穷人。因此，减少能源补贴、对能源使用进行合理征税，对人类和地球都是一个双赢的解决方案。

Income inequality

收入不平等

Demographics and degradation of the environment are two major long-term trends—disparity of income is the third. This is really an old issue that has come to the fore once again.

人口变化和环境恶化是两大长期趋势，收入不均是第三个。这是一个又摆回桌面上的老话题。

We are all keenly aware that income inequality has been rising in most countries. Seven out of ten people in the world today live in countries where inequality has increased over the past three decades.

我们都强烈感受到，收入不平等在大多数国家都有所加剧。当今世界人口的十分之七生活在收入不平等程度在过去30年升高的国家。

Some of the numbers are stunning—according to Oxfam, the richest 85 people in the world own the same amount of wealth as the bottom half of the world’s population.

有些数字很惊人，根据乐施会，世界最富有的85个人拥有的财富等于较穷的一半世界人口的总收入。

In the US, inequality is back to where it was before the Great Depression, and the richest 1 percent captured 95 percent of all income gains since 2009, while the bottom 90 percent got poorer. In India, the net worth of the billionaire community increased twelvefold in 15 years, enough to eliminate absolute poverty in this country twice over.

在美国，不平等程度又回升到了大萧条之前的水平，自2009 年以来，最富有的1%的人口获得了收入增益的95%，而下层的90%人口越来越穷。在印度，亿万富翁的净值在15年里增加了12倍 ，这笔财富足以使两倍于该国绝对贫困人口的人脱贫。

With facts like these, it is not surprising that inequality is increasingly on the global community’s radar screen. It is not surprising that everyone from the Confederation of British Industry to Pope Francis is speaking out about it—because it can tear the precious fabric that holds our society together.

有了这些事实，国际社会日益关注收入不平等问题就不奇怪了。也正是因为这些事实，从英国工业联合会到弗朗西斯教皇都在谈论这个问题，因为收入不平等会破坏社会凝聚所依赖的珍贵的组织结构。

Let me be frank: in the past, economists have underestimated the importance of inequality. They have focused on economic growth, on the size of the pie rather than its distribution. Today, we are more keenly aware of the damage done by inequality. Put simply, a severely skewed income distribution harms the pace and sustainability of growth over the longer term. It leads to an economy of exclusion, and a wasteland of discarded potential.

恕我直言：过去，经济学家们低估了不平等的重要性。他们专注于经济增长，重视饼的大小，而不是饼的分配。今天，我们更加深切地感受到了不平等造成的损害。简单地说，严重扭曲的收入分配损害了长期增长速度和增长的可持续性。它会导致经济缺乏包容性，使经济潜力丧失殆尽。

It is easy to diagnose the problem, but far more difficult to solve it.

诊断问题不难，更难的是解决问题。

From our work at the IMF, we know that the fiscal system can help to reduce inequality through careful design of tax and spending policies. Think about making taxation more progressive, improving access to health and education, and putting in place effective and targeted social programs. Yet these policies are hard to design and—because they create winners and losers—they create resistance and require courage.

基金组织的分析认为，通过精心设计的税收和支出政策，财政制度可以减少不平等。可以提高税收的累进性，让更多的人获得卫生和教育服务，并制定有效的和有针对性的社会计划。然而，这些政策很难设计，并且，政策行动会形成赢家和输家，因此会遭遇阻力，推进这些行动需要极大的勇气。

Nevertheless, we need to get to grips with it, and make sure that “inclusion” is given as much weight as “growth” in the design of policies. Yes, we need inclusive growth.

然而，我们需要正视这个问题，确保在政策设计过程中，“包容性”获得的重视程度不亚于“增长”。是的，我们需要包容性增长。

More inclusion and opportunity in the economic life also means less cronyism and corruption. This must also rise to the top of the policy agenda.

经济生活要实现更大的包容性和给予更多机会，则必须减少任人唯亲和腐败。这必须成为政策议程的优先目标。

There is one more dimension of inequality that I wish to discuss here—one that is close to my heart. If we talk about inclusion in economic life, we must surely talk about gender.

我还想在这里讨论不平等的另一视角，这是一个我非常关心的问题。在谈论经济发展的包容性时，我们必须谈到性别问题。

As we know too well, girls and women are still not allowed to fulfill their potential—not just in the developing world, but in rich countries too. The International Labor Organization estimates that 865 million women around the world are being held back. They face discrimination at birth, on the school bench, in the board room. They face reticence of the marketplace—and of the mind.

我们清楚地知道，女孩和妇女仍然不能充分发挥自己的潜力，不仅在发展中国家，在富裕国家也如此。据国际劳工组织估计，全世界8.65 亿妇女受到约束。她们在出生时、在学校、在高管层都面临歧视。她们面临市场和意识上的无形阻碍。

And yet, the economic facts of life are crystal clear. By not letting women contribute, we end up with lower living standards for everyone. If women participated in the labor force to the same extent as men, the boost to per capita incomes could be huge—27 percent in the Middle East and North Africa, 23 percent in South Asia, 17 percent in Latin America, 15 percent in East Asia, 14 percent in Europe and Central Asia. We simply cannot afford to throw away these gains.

然而，生活中的经济账也一清二楚。不让女性做贡献，我们的生活水平最终会下降。如果女性能与男人同样程度地参与劳动力市场，可以很大程度地促进人均收入提高，在中东和北非是27%，在南亚是23%，在拉丁美洲是17%，在东亚是15%，在欧洲和中亚是14%。我们实在不能无故放弃这些收益。

“Daring the difference”, as I call it—enabling women to participate on an equal footing with men—can be a global economic game changer. We must let women succeed: for ourselves and for all the little girls—and boys—of the future. It will be their world—let us give it to them.

我们应向这种差别提出挑战，让女性同男性一样参与工作，而这可能会改变全球经济的未来。我们必须让女性获得成功，这是为了我们自己，也是为了未来的所有小女孩和男孩。未来的世界是他们的，让我们给他们这样一个世界。