美国国务卿克里在印尼雅加达美国中心就气候变化问题发表的讲话（中英对照）

Try and picture a very thin layer of gases – a quarter-inch, half an inch, somewhere in that vicinity – that’s how thick it is. It’s in our atmosphere. It’s way up there at the edge of the atmosphere. And for millions of years – literally millions of years – we know that layer has acted like a thermal blanket for the planet – trapping the sun’s heat and warming the surface of the Earth to the ideal, life-sustaining temperature. Average temperature of the Earth has been about 57 degrees Fahrenheit, which keeps life going. Life itself on Earth exists because of the so-called greenhouse effect. But in modern times, as human beings have emitted gases into the air that come from all the things we do, that blanket has grown thicker and it traps more and more heat beneath it, raising the temperature of the planet. It’s called the greenhouse effect because it works exactly like a greenhouse in which you grow a lot of the fruit that you eat here.

可以想象一下，我们有一层薄薄的气层，四分之一英寸，半英寸，大概如此，就是这么厚。这层气体在我们大气层内，位于大气层边缘。几百万年以来，的确有几百万年，我们知道这层气体如同为地球披上一条保温毯，保持太阳发出的热量，使地表保持维系生命所需要的理想温度。地球上的温度平均为华氏57度，使生命可以得到维持。生命本身在地球上存在，是因为所谓的温室效应。但是在现代，人类通过我们所有的活动向大气排放温室气体，增加了这条保温毯的厚度，下面的热量越来越高，促使地球的温度上升。这就是造成气候变化的原因。这就是所谓的温室效应，因为这与你们在温室中种植很多你们在这里食用的水果一样。

This is what’s causing climate change. It’s a huge irony that the very same layer of gases that has made life possible on Earth from the beginning now makes possible the greatest threat that the planet has ever seen.

这就是造成气候变化的原因。令人难以接受的是，这层气体最初使生命在地球上存在成为可能，现在同样的气层却使地球受到前所未有的最严重的威胁。

And the results of our human activity are clear. If you ranked all the years in recorded history by average temperature, you’d see that 8 of the 10 hottest years have all happened within the last 10 years. Think about it this way: all 10 of the hottest years on record have actually happened since Google went online in 1998.

人类活动造成的后果已经很明确。如果对有历史记录以来的年份按照平均气温逐一排列，你们会发现，在10个气温最高的年份中，有8个发生在过去10年内。请思考一下：有记录的10个气温最高的年份实际上发生在1998年谷歌上线以来。

Now, that’s how fast this change is happening. And because the earth is getting hotter at such an alarming speed, glaciers in places like the Arctic are melting into the sea faster than we expected. And the sea is rising – slowly, but rising – and will rise to dangerous levels. Scientists now predict that by the end of the century, the sea could rise by a full meter. Now, I know that to some people a meter may not sound like a lot, but I’ll tell you this: it’s enough to put half of Jakarta underwater. Just one meter would displace hundreds of millions of people worldwide and threaten billions of dollars in economic activity. It would put countries into jeopardy. It would put countless – I mean, come to the local level – it would put countless homes and schools and parks, entire cities at risk.

这说明这方面的变化如此之快。由于地球以如此惊人的速度变得越来越热，北极等地的冰川正在以超出我们预料的速度融化成海水。海平面正在上升，速度缓慢，但正在上升，而且将上升到危险的程度。目前科学家预测，到本世纪末，海平面可能上升一米。我知道，有些人认为一米并不算多，但是我可以告诉你们：这足以淹没半个雅加达。仅仅上升一米就会使全世界数百万人无家可归，使数十亿美元的经济活动受到威胁。这会使各国陷入危境。这会导致无数——我指的是当地的情况——无数住房、学校、公园和整个城市陷入危境。

Now, climate change also tragically means the end of some species. The changing sea temperature and the increasing amount of acidity – the acidity comes from coal-fired power plants and from the pollution, and when the rain falls the rain spills the acidity into the ocean. And it means that certain species of fish like cod or sardines can no longer live where they once lived. This is devastating for the world’s fisheries. And scientists predict that fisheries will be among the hardest hit. Just think about the fishermen who sell their fish catches at Pasar Ikan. Think about it. There are some studies that say that Indonesia’s fisheries could actually lose up to 40 percent of what they currently bring in – so a fisherman who usually has about a hundred fish to sell one day would suddenly only have 60 or so for sale. The impact is obvious.

目前， 气候变化还意味着某些物种的灭绝。海水温度的变化和酸性物质日益增长-- 酸性物质来自燃煤电厂和污染，下雨时雨水将酸性物质释入海洋。这意味着某些鱼类物种，例如鳕鱼和沙丁鱼等，不再能够在原来地方生活。这将对全世界的渔业造成重创。据科学家预测，渔业将是受打击最严重的行业之一。请想一想那些在金巴兰出售自己捕来的鱼的渔民。为他们想一想。有些研究报告说，印度尼西亚的渔业可能实际损失目前收获量的40% 。如果一位渔民通常可以每天出售100条鱼，突然只能出售大约60条鱼。受到的影响十分明显。

Climate change also means water shortages. And if you have these enormous water shortages, then you have a change in the weather – because of the weather patterns, you’re going to wind up with droughts, the lack of water. And the droughts can become longer and more intense. In fact, this isn’t something around the corner – this is happening now.

气候变化还意味着缺水。你们如果面临这种严重缺水的状态，就会发现天气发生变化，按照天气规律，你们最终会面临干旱，缺水。干旱会持续得更久，更严重。实际上，这种情况并不是即将发生，而是现在正在发生。

We are seeing record droughts right now, and they’re already putting a strain on water resources around the world. We’ve already seen in various parts of the world – in Africa, for instance – people fighting each other over water, and we’ve seen more conflicts shaping up now over the limits of water. Back in the United States, President Obama just the other day visited California, where millions of people are now experiencing the 13th month of the worst drought the state has seen in 500 years. And no relief is in sight. What used to be a 100-year or a 500-year event is now repeating itself within 10 years.

目前我们正看到创记录的干旱，已经造成全世界水资源的紧缺状态。我们已经看到，世界各地，例如在非洲，人们为水资源相互争斗。我们已经看到，目前有更多的冲突因缺水而起。在美国，欧巴马总统不久前访问加利福尼亚州，那里数百万人正连续第13个月经历500年来该州最严重的干旱。而且没有看到缓解的迹象。以往100年或500年才出现的情况，现在10年内就已再次发生。

Furthermore, climate change means fundamental transformations in agriculture worldwide. Scientists predict that, in some places, heat waves and water shortages will make it much more difficult for farmers to be able to grow the regular things we grow, like wheat or corn or rice. And obviously, it’s not only farmers who will suffer here – it’s the millions of people who depend on those crops that the farmers grow. For example, the British government research showed that climate change may have contributed to the famine that killed as many as 100,000 people in Somalia just back in 2010 and 2011.

此外，气候变化意味着全世界农业的彻底转型。科学家预测，在某些地方，热浪和缺水将使农民更难以种植我们通常种植的作物，例如小麦、玉米和大米。很显然，遭受痛苦的不仅仅是农民，还有数百万人依靠这些农民种植的作物生活。例如，英国政府的研究表明，气候变化可能导致2010年和2011年索马里的饥荒，100,000人为此丧生。

And scientists further predict that climate change also means longer, more unpredictable monsoon seasons and more extreme weather events. Now, I’ll tell you, I can’t tell you – no weatherman on TV or anybody is going to be able to look at you and tell you – that one particular storm was absolutely the result of climate change. But scientists do predict that many more of these disastrous storms will occur if we continue down the current path. Ladies and gentlemen, I saw with my own eyes what the Philippines experienced in the wake of Typhoon Haiyan and I will tell you it would be absolutely devastating if that kind of storm were to become the normal thing that happens every single year in many places.

科学家进一步预测，气候变化也意味着会有持续更久、更加无常的季风季节和极端气象情况。我可以说，虽然我无法告诉各位——没有一位电视上的天气预报员或任何人能够面对大家说哪一次风暴绝对是由气候变化造成的，但科学家确实预计，如果我们像现在这样继续下去，这种灾难性风暴就会更多。女士们、先生们，我亲眼目睹了菲律宾在台风海燕过后的情景，我必须告诉各位：如果那样的风暴成为经常性事件，每年在许多地方发生，那将绝对是惨绝人寰。

On top of the unspeakable humanitarian toll, the economic cost that follows a storm like that is absolutely massive. I don’t mean just the billions that it costs to rebuild. We’ve seen here in Asia how extreme weather events can disrupt world trade. For example, after serious flooding in 2011, global prices for external computer hard drives rose by more than 10 percent. Why? Because electronic manufacturing zones around Bangkok were out of commission, wiped out by the weather. So it’s not just about agriculture – it’s also about technology. It’s about our global economy. It’s about potentially catastrophic effects on the global supply chain.

除了难以言喻的人命损失外，这样的风暴造成的经济代价极其巨大。我指的不仅是数百亿重建费用。大家在亚洲这里看到，极端气象事件如何影响到世界贸易。例如，在2011年的严重洪灾后，全球电脑外接硬盘驱动器价格上升10%以上。为什么？因为曼谷四周的电子制造区停业，被天灾摧毁。所以，这关系到的不仅是农业，而是也关系到技术业，关系到我们的全球经济，关系到对全球供应链可能造成的摧毁性影响。

Now, despite all of these realities – despite these facts – much of the world still doesn’t see or want to see the need to pursue a significant response to this threat. As recently as 2011, a survey of city officials here in Asia found that more than 80 percent of the population said they did not anticipate climate change hurting their cities’ economies.

尽管面对这些现实——尽管有这些事实——世界很多人仍然看不到或者不愿看到有必要寻求对这种威胁作出反应。近在2011年的一项对亚洲城市官员的调查还显示， 人口中有80%以上的人不认为气候变化会给他们的城市带来经济损失。

And despite more than 25 years of scientific warning after scientific warning after scientific warning – despite all that, the call to arms that we heard back in Rio back in 1992 – despite that, we still haven’t globally summoned the urgency necessary to get the job done. And as a result of this complacency, last year the amount of carbon dioxide in our atmosphere reached the highest point in human history – despite all the warnings.

尽管有超过25年一次又一次的科学警告——尽管那一切，尽管我们听到了在1992年里约会议上发出的行动呼唤，我们仍然未能在全球形成所需的紧迫感来完成这项任务。安于现状带来的结果是，面对所有这些警告，去年我们大气层中的碳排放量仍然达到了人类历史上的最高程度。

Now, I know that these are some dramatic scientific facts – statistics. But think of it this way: If the worst-case scenario about climate change, all the worst predictions, if they never materialize, what will be the harm that is done from having made the decision to respond to it? We would actually leave our air cleaner. We would leave our water cleaner. We would actually make our food supply more secure. Our populations would be healthier because of fewer particulates of pollution in the air – less cost to health care. Those are the things that would happen if we happen to be wrong and we responded. But imagine if the 97 percent of those scientists are correct and the people who say no are wrong. Then the people who say no will have presented us with one of the most catastrophic, grave threats in the history of human life. That’s the choice here.

我知道，这是一些惊人的科学事实数据。但是让我们来这样想：如果气候变化能够带来的最糟糕情况，最糟糕的预测，永远没有发生，现在做出的反应决策会有什么害处呢？我们其实会让粮食供应变得更有保障，由于空气中减少了污染物，我们的人口会更健康，医疗费用会减少。这些是如果我们偏巧错了并且做了反应所会产生的情况。但是，想象一下，如果97%的科学家是正确的，而否认这一点的人错了，那么持否定立场的人带给我们的将是人类历史上最惨重最致命的威胁之一。这就是眼前的选择。

Notwithstanding the stark choices that we face, here’s the good thing: there is still time. The window of time is still open for us to be able to manage this threat. But the window is closing. And so I wanted to come to Jakarta to talk to you because we need people all over the world to raise their voices and to be heard. There is still time for us to significantly cut greenhouse emissions and prevent the very worst consequences of climate change from ever happening at all. But we need to move on this, and we need to move together now. We just don’t have time to let a few loud interests groups hijack the climate conversation. And when I say that, you know what I’m talking about? I’m talking about big companies that like it the way it is that don’t want to change, and spend a lot of money to keep you and me and everybody from doing what we know we need to do.

虽然我们面临严峻的选择，但有利的一点是，仍然有时间。时间的窗口仍在敞开，让我们能够处理这一威胁。不过这个窗口即将关闭。因此我希望到雅加达来同各位交谈，我们需要世界各地的人发出声音和让世界听到他们的声音。我们仍然有时间大幅度减少温室气体排放和完全防止气候变化的最坏结局的出现。但是我们需要现在就行动起来，我们需要现在就一起行动。我们没有时间让少数高声量的利益集团劫持关于气候问题的对话。你们知道我这话指的是什么？指的是那些愿意按它们自身方式行事而不想作出改变的大公司，它们花费巨款阻止你、我和所有人从事我们知道我们需要做的事。

First and foremost, we should not allow a tiny minority of shoddy scientists and science and extreme ideologues to compete with scientific fact. Nor should we allow any room for those who think that the costs associated with doing the right thing outweigh the benefits. There are people who say, “Oh, it’s too expensive, we can’t do this.” No. No, folks. We certainly should not allow more time to be wasted by those who want to sit around debating whose responsibility it is to deal with this threat, while we come closer and closer to the point of no return.

首先和最重要的是，我们不应让极少数假冒科学家和极端主义空谈家与科学事实相纠缠。我们也不应对那些把正确行事所需的成本看得比益处更重的人留有余地。有些人说：“啊，这太贵了，我们没法做。”不行。各位，不行。我们当然不应让那些希望坐在那里为谁该对应对这一威胁承担责任而争论不休的人浪费时间，而我们却在日益接近没有回头路的时刻。

I have to tell you, this is really not a normal kind of difference of opinion between people. Sometimes you can have a reasonable argument and a reasonable disagreement over an opinion you may have. This is not opinion. This is about facts. This is about science. The science is unequivocal. And those who refuse to believe it are simply burying their heads in the sand.

我必须对各位说，这其实不是人们之间存在的普通观点分歧。有时候，人们对一个观点会有合情合理的的争论，合情合理的分歧。但此处不是观点，是科学。这里的科学毫无疑问，那些拒绝相信它的人纯粹是在做鸵鸟。

Now, President and I – Obama and I believe very deeply that we do not have time for a meeting anywhere of the Flat Earth Society. One of the arguments that we do hear is that it’s going to be too expensive to be able to address climate change. I have to tell you, that assertion could not be less grounded in fact. In fact, it’s exactly the opposite. Serious analysts understand that the costs of doing nothing far outweigh the costs of investing in solutions now. You do not need a degree in economics or a graduate degree in business in order to understand that the cost of flooding, the cost of drought, the cost of famine, the cost of health care, the cost of addressing this challenge is simply far less – the costs of addressing this challenge are far less than the costs of doing nothing. Just look at the most recent analysis done by the World Bank, which estimates that by 2050, losses – excuse me one second – losses from flood damage in Asian ports – fishing ports, shipping ports – the losses in those ports alone could exceed $1 trillion annually unless we make big changes to the infrastructure of those ports.

欧巴马总统和我都深信，我们没有时间在任何地方为地平说学会举行会议。我们听到的论点之一是，应对气候变化问题费用过于昂贵。我要对各位说，这种说法完全没有事实根据。事实恰恰相反。严肃的分析家都理解，无所作为的代价将远远大于现在为解决问题而进行投资。人们不需要经济学位或商业硕士学位便可以理解，洪水的代价、干旱的代价、饥荒的代价、医疗费用的代价，应对这一挑战的代价——应对这一挑战的种种代价远远低于无所事事的代价。只需看看世界银行最近的一项分析，这项分析估计，到2050年，除非我们大幅度改进基础设施，否则仅洪水给亚洲港口造成的损失——给鱼港、航运港带来的损失，每年就可能超过一万亿美元。

Finally, if we truly want to prevent the worst consequences of climate change from happening, we do not have time to have a debate about whose responsibility this is. The answer is pretty simple: It’s everyone’s responsibility. Now certainly some countries – and I will say this very clearly, some countries, including the United States, contribute more to the problem and therefore we have an obligation to contribute more to the solution. I agree with that. But, ultimately, every nation on Earth has a responsibility to do its part if we have any hope of leaving our future generations the safe and healthy planet that they deserve.

最后，如果我们真心希望防止出现气候变化带来的最恶劣后果，我们就没有时间辩论应该由谁承担责任。因为答案相当简单：这是所有人的责任。当然，有些国家——我非常明确地说明这点，有些国家，包括美国，对造成问题有更多的作用，因此我们有责任为解决问题作出更多贡献。我同意这点。但是，从根本上说，如果我们希望给我们的后代留下一个他们应该享有的安全健康的星球的话，地球上的每一个国家都有责任尽自己的一份努力。

You have a saying, I think, here in Indonesia, “Luka di kaki, sakit seluruh badan”. (Laughter.) I – for those that don’t speak as well as I do – (laughter) – it means “when there’s a pain in the foot, the whole body feels it.” Well, today in this interconnected world that we all live in, the fact is that hardship anywhere is actually felt by people everywhere. We all see it; we share it. And when a massive storm destroys a village and yet another and then another in Southeast Asia; when crops that used to grow abundantly no longer turn a profit for farmers in South America; when entire communities are forced to relocate because of rising tides – that’s happening – it’s not just one country or even one region that feels the pain. In today’s globalized economy, everyone feels it.

我想，你们印度尼西亚有句话，叫做“Luka di kaki, sakit seluruh badan”（笑声）——告诉那些不如我讲得好的人（笑声）——它的意思是“脚痛周身痛”。今天，在这个相互关联的世界上，一个地方的痛苦确实被所有地方的人感到。我们都看到这点。当大规模风暴摧毁东南亚一个又一个村庄时，当南美原本茂盛生长的作物再也不能给农民带来收益时，当整个社区由于潮水升高而不得不前往他方时——这种情况正在发生——感受痛苦的不只是一个国家，甚至不是一个地区。在今天全球化经济中，人人都感到这种苦痛。

And when you think about it, that connection to climate change is really no different than how we confront other global threats.

如果思考一下，气候变化中的这种相关性其实与我们应对其他全球威胁的情况并无二致。

Think about terrorism. We don’t decide to have just one country beef up the airport security and the others relax their standards and let bags on board without inspection. No, that clearly wouldn’t make us any safer.

想一想恐怖主义。我们并不是让一个国家加强机场安全，而其他国家放松标准，让行李可以不经检查登机。不是的。那样显然不会让我们任何人更安全。

Or think about the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. It doesn’t keep us safe if the United States secures its nuclear arsenal, while other countries fail to prevent theirs from falling into the hands of terrorists. We all have to approach this challenge together, which is why all together we are focused on Iran and its nuclear program or focused on North Korea and its threat.

或者想一想大规模毁灭性武器扩散。如果美国保障核武库安全而其他国家不能防止让它们的核武器落入不法者手中，我们就不会有安全。我们所有人必须共同迎接这一挑战，正因为如此，我们各方对伊朗及其核项目给予共同关注，对北韩及其威胁给予共同关注。

The bottom line is this: it is the same thing with climate change. And in a sense, climate change can now be considered another weapon of mass destruction, perhaps the world’s most fearsome weapon of mass destruction.

归根结底，应对气候变化同样如此。从某种意义来说，气候变化现在可被视为世界上另一个大规模毁灭性武器，也许是世界上最可怕的大规模毁灭性武器。

Now I mentioned earlier, a few minutes ago, that last December I went to Tacloban in the Philippines, not long after Typhoon Haiyan. I have to tell you: I’ve seen a lot of places in war and out of war and places that have been destroyed, but in all the time of my life, I don’t think I’ve ever seen devastation like. We saw cars and homes and lives turned upside-down, trees scattered like toothpicks all across a mountainside. And most devastating of all, so quickly, that storm stole the lives of more than 5,000 people – women, and children who never saw it coming.

我在刚才几分钟前提到，去年12月，在台风海燕过后不久，我到过菲律宾的塔克洛班。我必须告诉各位，我目睹过许多战争中和战争结束后的地方，许多被摧毁的地方，但是在我整个一生中，我想我从没有见过这样悲惨的景象。我们看到汽车翻顶、房屋倾覆，生灵涂炭，满山树木像牙签般七零八落。最悲惨的是，台风如此迅即夺去了5,000多人——从不知厄运将至的男女老少——的生命。

The fact is that climate change, if left unchecked, will wipe out many more communities from the face of the earth. And that is unacceptable under any circumstances – but is even more unacceptable because we know what we can do and need to do in order to deal with this challenge.

实情是，如果不控制气候变化，将有更多社区这样从地球上消失。这种情形在任何情况下都不可接受，在我们已经知道可以如何做和需要如何做来应对这一挑战的情况下，则更是如此。

It is time for the world to approach this problem with the cooperation, the urgency, and the commitment that a challenge of this scale warrants. It’s absolutely true that industrialized countries – yes, industrialized countries that produce most of the emissions – have a huge responsibility to be able to reduce emissions, but I’m telling you that doesn’t mean that other nations have a free pass. They don’t have a right to go out and repeat the mistakes of the past. It’s not enough for one country or even a few countries to reduce their emissions when other countries continue to fill the atmosphere with carbon pollution as they see fit. At the end of the day, emissions coming from anywhere in the world threaten the future for people everywhere in the world, because those emissions go up and then they move with the wind and they drop with the rain and the weather, and they keep going around and around and they threaten all of us.

现在早已是世界拿出面对这一大规模挑战所需要的合作、紧迫感和坚定承诺去解决问题的时候了。一点不错，工业化国家——是的，带来最多排放的工业化国家——对实现减排具有巨大责任，但我必须说，这不意味着其他国家可以自由过关。它们没有权利再来重犯过去的错误。只有一个国家或哪怕几个国家减少排放——其他国家继续视自己所需将碳污染送入空中——不足以解决问题。到头来，来自世界任何地方的排放都将给未来所有地方的人造成威胁，因为那些排放物升入空中，随风飘游，随雨水和天气因素落下，它们可以不停地环绕，威胁我们所有人。