1. The
Current State of the Global Economy 一、全球经济的现状
First, the global economy. We
will be releasing our updated forecasts in a few weeks, so today I will touch
only on some broad trends.
首先谈一谈全球经济。我们再过几周就要发布最新预测，所以今天我只谈一些粗略的走势。
Overall, global prospects are
improving. The world economy is slowly turning the corner, although growth
remains too weak and too unbalanced. In January, we projected global activity
to strengthen from 3 percent in 2013 to about 3.7 percent in 2014—largely
driven by improvements in the advanced economies.
总体而言，全球前景在改善。世界经济正在慢慢好转，但增长还是太弱、太不均衡。我们在今年1 月预测全球经济活动将从2013 年的3%加快到2014 年的3.7%，这主要将得益于先进经济体的经济好转。
Activity in emerging market and
developing economies picked up slightly in the latter part of 2013, driven by
stronger external demand from advanced economies. Although tighter external
financial conditions will be a drag on domestic demand, emerging Asia will
continue to be a bright spot, posting the highest growth rate of about 6.7
percent this year and next. China will continue to be a key driver of this
momentum, albeit with lower but more sustainable growth rates.
2013 年最后几个月，由于来自先进经济体的外部需求增强，新兴市场和发展中经济体的经济活动略有回升。尽管外部融资状况的收紧将抑制国内需求，但新兴亚洲仍将是一个增长亮点，今明两年的增长率将在6.7%左右，是全球最高的。中国仍将是这一强劲增长势头的主要驱动力量，尽管增速将有所放缓，但将更可持续。
Among the advanced economies,
growth will be strongest in the United States, supported by robust private
demand. Even so, it will be critical to continue to manage carefully the withdrawal
of monetary support and to address medium-term fiscal uncertainty.
在先进经济体中，美国的增长将是最强的，这得益于其强劲的私人需求。即使如此，美国必须继续谨慎地管理其货币支持措施的退出过程，并解决中期财政不确定性。
In the euro area, a modest
recovery is taking hold—stronger in the core countries, but weaker in the
South. Progress on banking union in recent days is encouraging and we look forward
to further implementation –which is essential for a durable recovery.
欧元区的温和复苏正在巩固——核心国家的复苏较强，但南方国家的复苏较弱。最近几天在银行业联盟方面取得了令人鼓舞的进展，我们期待着进一步的实施。这对于确保持久复苏至关重要。
In Japan, private investment and
exports are seeing a boost from the monetary “arrow” of Abenomics. But for
growth to be sustained, we need all “three arrows” to be fired—including a
medium-term fiscal plan and structural reforms.
在日本，安倍经济政策的货币之“箭”促进了私人投资和出口的增长。但是，为保证经济持续增长，需要同时射出“三箭”，包括制定中期财政计划和进行结构性改革。
Overall, even as global prospects
slowly strengthen, the specter of some old risks remain: incomplete financial
sector reform, large debt burdens, increasing inequality and unacceptably high
unemployment.
总的来看，虽然全球前景缓慢增强，但一些旧有风险依然存在：金融部门改革尚未完成，债务负担沉重，不平等程度加剧，失业率过高。
At the same time, we see some new
risks appearing. Let me mention two in particular:
同时，我们看到新的风险正在出现。我特别想指出两点：
• Number one, in the advanced
economies—particularly in the euro area—the risk of prolonged low inflation is
looming and needs to be appropriately addressed, including through
unconventional monetary policies as needed.
• 第一，在先进经济体，特别是欧元区，长期低通胀风险正在浮现，需要适当地加以应对，包括必要时采取非常规货币政策。
• Number two, in emerging market
economies, there is a risk of heightened market volatility associated with the
tapering of monetary policy in the advanced economies. Given that countries
with larger domestic and external imbalances are likely to be more affected,
strong macroeconomic policy responses on their part will be key—as will
continued clear communication and cooperation among all parties concerned.
• 第二，在新兴市场经济体，市场波动可能随着先进经济体退出非常规货币政策而加剧。鉴于内部和外部失衡较为严重的国家可能受到更大影响，它们采取强有力的宏观经济政策应对措施将是关键所在。另外，有关各方都应继续清晰地沟通政策并开展合作。
What does this mean for China?
这对中国意味着什么？
China has clearly emerged as a
stabilizing force in the global economy. In fact, China accounted for more than
a third of total global growth over the past five years—and for almost half of
the emerging and developing economies’ growth.
中国显然已经成为全球经济的稳定力量。事实上，过去五年里，中国在全球总增长中占三分之一以上，在新兴和发展中经济体的增长中占近一半。
Going forward, a strengthening
global economy will help China’s economy—and help maintain its leadership role
in many areas of business, trade, and finance. But to sustain that role—and to
enhance it—further important policy steps will be needed.
展望未来，全球经济的加强将为中国经济提供支持——有助于中国在商业、贸易、金融等多个领域继续发挥领导作用。但为了保持并增强这种作用，中国需要进一步采取重要的政策步骤。 |
