2. Key
Policy Steps in Achieving China’s Next Transformation 二、实现中国下一轮转型的关键政策步骤
Which brings me to my second
topic—China’s next transformation.
我下面就来谈谈第二个问题——中国的下一轮转型。
China’s enormous economic
progress is due to the courage of its leaders and people who were not afraid to
undertake bold reforms, even if they were costly in the short term. China is
again at a crossroads. While headline growth numbers remain impressive, this
disguises some serious obstacles that need to be overcome.
中国之所以取得了巨大的经济进步，是因为中国领导人和人民有勇气，不畏惧推行大刀阔斧的改革，即使这些改革在短期内代价高昂。现在，中国再次站在重要关口。尽管整体上经济增长数据仍然十分乐观，但其背后存在着一些有待克服的严重阻碍因素。
In a recent address, President Xi
Jinping put it this way: “Pausing and withdrawing are not a way out. Reforming
and opening up only has a progressive tense, not a perfect tense.”
习近平主席在最近的一次讲话中这样说：“停顿和倒退没有出路，改革开放只有进行时，没有完成时。”
The challenge is clear: to make
growth more inclusive, friendlier to the environment, and more sustainable. The
reform blueprint announced at the Third Plenum is an impressively ambitious and
comprehensive response to this challenge.
挑战是明确的：使经济增长更具包容性、更有利于环境、更可持续。三中全会宣布的改革蓝图正是针对这一难题的雄心勃勃的全面解答。
From that blueprint, I would
emphasize three key steps:
基于这一改革蓝图，我想强调三个关键步骤：
(i) Unleashing the potential of
the services sector;
（一）释放服务部门的潜力；
(ii) Building a modern, globally
integrated financial sector; and
（二）建立现代化的、全球一体化的金融部门；
(iii) Strengthening inclusion and
safeguarding the environment.
（三）提高包容性，保护环境。
Let me elaborate on each:
我下面就针对每一点展开谈谈：
(i)
Unleashing the potential of the services sector （一）释放服务部门的潜力
China’s previous round of reforms
transformed it into a manufacturing powerhouse. The next round of reforms must
be aimed at increasing the role of the modern services sector.
中国的上一轮改革使其变成一个制造业大国。下一轮改革必须以增强现代服务部门的作用为目标。
This will not only unlock the
substantial growth potential in that sector, but also boost employment,
consumption and living standards. As with the previous reforms, removing
barriers blocking development of the private sector will be key.
这不仅会释放服务部门的巨大增长潜力，而且会促进就业和消费增长以及生活水平的提高。同过去的改革一样，消除阻碍私人部门发展的障碍仍将是关键所在。
For example: China is currently
among the top three countries in the world in filing patent applications—more
than 435,000 of them in 2011 alone. It also ranks first worldwide in terms of
creative exports—that is, export products based on exclusive trademark
registrations in China.
例如，中国目前是世界三大专利申请国之一，仅2011年就有43.5万项专利申请。而在创意出口方面（即在中国注册的专有商标的出口产品），中国在世界排名第一。
The question is how to safeguard
and nurture this success?
问题是，如何保持和发扬这种成功？
Productivity and innovation can
only flourish with modern education, advanced health, and integrated financial
systems. So the barriers to entry in these key areas need to be reduced—so that
innovation can keep China at the leading edge of economic progress.
只有具备现代化的教育、先进的医疗保健、一体化的金融体系，生产率才能持续提高，创新活动才能蓬勃发展。所以，需要消除进入这些关键领域的障碍，使创新活动能够推动中国经济发展继续处于领先地位。
(ii) Building a modern, globally integrated
financial sector （二）建立现代化的、全球一体化的金融部门
What about the financial sector?
It too holds great potential to increase growth and improve welfare.
金融部门呢？金融部门也能极大地促进增长和改善福利。
China has taken commendable
steps—including in recent days—to modernize its financial sector. Progress has
been made in widening the exchange rate band, and People’s Bank Governor Zhou
has committed to complete the process of interest rate liberalization in two
years. The market orientation of monetary policy implementation has also
increased.
为了实现金融部门的现代化，中国已经采取了值得称赞的步骤，包括最近一段时间出台的一些重大措施。中国在扩大汇率波幅方面已经取得了进展，并且，周小川行长已表示将在两年内完成利率放开过程。货币政策操作的市场化程度也已提高。
Yet, there is still some way to
go to establish the modern, robust, and globally integrated financial system
that is essential to support China’s next transformation.
中国若要成功实现下一次转型，必须建立现代化的、强健的、全球一体化的金融体系，而这方面仍有很长的路要走。
For one thing, Chinese financial
institutions would benefit from more competition and knowledge-transfer. This
would help to better intermediate the vast pool of domestic savings to the most
productive uses. It would also prepare Chinese banks to play a bigger role
globally.
首先，中国的金融机构将从更多的竞争和知识转让中受益。这有助于庞大的国内储蓄更好地流向产效最高的领域，也能使中国的银行做好准备在全球发挥更大作用。
A gradual opening up of the
capital account would facilitate this process, while helping to diversify
domestic savings—and make the economy more resilient to shocks. It would also
strengthen the potential role of the renminbi as a global currency.
资本账户的逐步开放将为这一过程提供便利，同时这也有助于实现国内储蓄的多元化，使经济更能经受得住冲击。资本账户的开放还会提高人民币作为全球货币的潜在作用。
Of course, opening up the
financial sector must go hand-in-hand with a strengthening of macroeconomic
policy frameworks and the constant upgrading of regulation and supervision. The
crisis has taught us all this very important lesson.
当然，在放开金融部门的同时，必须加强宏观经济政策框架，并不断改善监管。危机带给了我们这个非常重要的教训。
(iii)
Strengthening inclusion and safeguarding the environment （三）提高包容性，保护环境。
I have talked about the services
sector and the financial sector as important steps toward improving the quality
of growth. The sustainability of growth is just as important. And for growth to
be sustainable, it needs to be inclusive, its benefits need to be more widely
shared, and it needs to be environmentally viable.
我已经谈了服务部门和金融部门，这两个部门的改革是提高经济增长质量的重要步骤。而增长的可持续性同样重要。经济增长若要持久，需具有包容性，其好处得到广泛享有，且应具有环境可行性。
As with many countries around the
world, China’s economic success came at a price—increasing inequality and
increasing environmental damage.
同很多国家一样，中国的经济成功是有代价的——不平等程度加剧，环境破坏日趋严重。
The IMF’s research shows that
excessive inequality is bad for sustainable growth. Increasing opportunities in
education, health care, and financial services can help greatly to address
inequality. So too can reforms to increase competition. Social cohesion can
also benefit from the right kinds of redistributive policies and a strong
safety net.
基金组织的研究显示，收入不平等不利于可持续增长。扩大获得教育、医疗保健和金融服务的机会，能极大地减轻不平等。旨在增强竞争的改革也能起到同样作用。适当的再分配政策和牢固的社会安全网也有助于增强社会凝聚力。
Other recent work by the IMF also
shows that there are significant economic gains to be made from increased
participation of women in the labor market. In some parts of the world, per
capita GDP could be as much as 27 percent higher if gender gaps in the labor
market were closed.
基金组织近期开展的其他研究还显示，妇女对劳动力市场参与程度的提高能带来显著效益。一些国家如果能消除劳动力市场的性别差距，人均GDP可提高27%之多。
Fortunately, China has made
important strides in leveling the playing field for women, especially in senior
positions. It has also encouraged female entrepreneurship—a quarter of all
business people in China are women.
幸运的是，在为妇女创造公平竞争环境方面（特别是高层职位），中国已经取得了长足进展。这也促进了女性企业家队伍的壮大——中国企业家中有四分之一是女性。
Even so, there are still many
constraints. Addressing them will be good for Chinese women and men—and good
for China.
即使如此，仍存在大量限制因素。消除这些限制对中国的女性和男性都是有益的，对整个国家也是有益的。
In terms of the environment, the
challenge is well known. Poor air quality, severe water shortage, and
desertification are major health and economic hazards. They pose a serious risk
to the next stage of China’s development.
关于环境，挑战是众所周知的。空气质量恶化、水资源严重短缺、沙漠化，这些对人的健康和经济的发展带来了极大损害。它们是中国下一阶段发展过程中的重大风险。
Encouragingly, China has taken
some important steps to improve its environmental footprint. An environmental
protection tax is being considered and resources are being allocated to close
down polluting factories.
令人鼓舞的是，中国已采取重要步骤改善环境。目前，正在考虑征收环保税，并且已分配资源关闭污染工厂。
And yet, more must be done to
make growth greener. One issue that the IMF has been emphasizing for many
countries is the better pricing of natural resources—and stricter enforcement
of rules. This powerful combination can lead to a significant improvement in
the quality of the environment.
然而，必须开展更多工作，促进“绿色”的经济增长。基金组织对很多国家强调的一个问题是，应改善自然资源的定价，并且更严格地执行规则。这两方面的有力组合能促使环境质量显著改善。
I fully appreciate the breadth
and depth of these reforms—in the services, financial, and environmental
areas—and the courage and commitment needed to see them through. They will not
be easy to implement but, if done well, they will indeed support China’s next
transformation.
我深知这些改革的广度和深度，它们涉及服务、金融、环境等多个领域。我也深知完成这些改革所需要的勇气和毅力。这些改革实施起来并不容易，但若得以成功实施，确实能支持中国的下一轮转型。
As the wise Chinese proverb says,
“Do not fear going forward slowly; fear only to stand still”.
中国有一句格言是这样说的：“不怕慢，只怕站”。 |
