1. State
of the Global Economy 一、全球经济状况
First, a quick check of the
global economy. We will be releasing our new forecasts next week, so I will
just touch on broad trends.
首先，快速看下全球经济。下周，我们将发布新预测，因此我只介绍总体趋势。
The global economy is turning the
corner of the Great Recession, although overall growth remains too slow and
weak. In 2013, global growth was about 3 percent; we project modest
improvements in 2014 and 2015, although still remaining below past trends.
虽然总体增长依旧过于缓慢且薄弱，全球经济正在拐“大衰退”这个角。2013年，全球约增长3%，我们预测，虽然全球增长仍将低于过去的趋势水平，但2014年和2015年会出现适度改善。
Economic activity in the advanced
economies is improving, albeit at varying speeds. This is good news, because
for the past 5 years the emerging market and developing economies have been
shouldering the burden of recovery—accounting for 75 percent of the increase in
global growth since 2009. The recovery is finally becoming a bit more balanced,
in an overall economic landscape that has changed significantly.
先进经济体的经济活动正在改善，但速度不一。这是好消息，因为过去5年，新兴市场和发展中经济体一直承担着复苏重担，自2009年以来，占全球增长增幅的75%。在发生巨变的整个经济格局中，复苏最终变得稍微更加平衡。
In the advanced economies, growth
is strongest in the United States, supported by robust private demand and an
easing of the short-term fiscal brake. Even so, it will be critical to continue
to carefully manage the gradual withdrawal of monetary support by the Fed, and
to put in place a durable medium-term fiscal plan.
在先进经济体中，受强劲的私人需求和短期财政抑制作用缓解的支持，美国的增长最为强劲。即便如此，美联储继续谨慎管理货币支持的逐步退出，以及建立持久的中期财政计划，都将是关键。
In the Euro Area, a modest
recovery is taking hold—stronger in the core but weaker in the South.
Encouraging steps have been taken recently to establish a banking union—which
the IMF has been urging for some time. Implementing a common fiscal backstop
remains key, as is the upcoming asset quality review of banks.
在欧元区，温和复苏正在稳固，核心国复苏较强，但南部较弱。近期为建立银行业联盟而采取了令人鼓舞的措施。一段时间以来，基金组织一直敦促此举。实施共同的财政支持措施仍是关键，即将进行的银行资产质量审查也一样。
In Japan, the world’s third
largest economy, activity is seeing a boost from the monetary “arrow” of
Abenomics. For growth to be sustained, the remaining two policy “arrows”—structural
reforms and a concrete medium-term fiscal plan—also need to be comprehensively
fired.
在世界第三大经济体日本，安倍经济学的货币之“箭”促进了经济活动。为实现可持续增长，也需要全面发射剩下的两支政策之“箭”，即结构性改革和具体的中期财政计划。
Activity in emerging market
economies, which has been slowing, picked up slightly in the latter part of
2013—driven by stronger demand from advanced economies. Although tighter
external financial conditions will be a drag on domestic demand, emerging Asia
in particular will continue to be a bright spot, posting the world’s highest
growth rate of more than 6½ percent this year. China also will continue to be a
key driver, albeit at a slower, more sustainable pace.
受先进经济体的强劲需求推动，一直在放缓的新兴市场经济体的活动在2013年下半年有所改善。虽然紧张的外部金融条件将拖累国内需求，但尤其是新兴亚洲将继续成为亮点，今年将增长6.5%以上，为世界最快增速。中国也将继续充当关键的增长引擎，但增速放缓并更可持续。
Many low-income countries too
have been a bright spot. After Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa has been the most
dynamic region in the world during the crisis, growing at around 5 percent per
year on average. This should continue, although in several countries rapid debt
accumulation and erosion of fiscal space will need to be watched.
许多低收入国家也是亮点。排在亚洲之后的撒哈拉以南非洲在危机期间是世界最具活力的地区，年均增长5%左右。这种增长应该会继续，但需关注多个国家债务迅速累积和财政空间受到侵蚀的问题。
Turning to the Arab Countries in
Transition, their prospects are held back by the difficult socio-political
context. Those countries striving to advance much-needed reforms deserve firm
support from the international community.
在转型中的阿拉伯国家，困难的社会政治背景拖累了这些国家的前景。努力推进急需改革的国家应得到国际社会的鼎力支持。
So this is a snapshot of the
global economy. I would summarize it this way: A modest and fragile recovery is
underway—and needs to change gears toward more rapid and sustainable growth.
所以，以上便是全球经济一瞥，我想这样总结：温和且脆弱的复苏正在进行，需切换档位，迈向更快、更可持续的增长。 |
