2.
Removing Obstacles to Short-run Growth 二、清除短期增长面临的障碍
This takes us to my next topic:
what short-term obstacles are emerging on the road to get there? I see three.
这将我们带到了我要探讨的下一个话题：前往目的地的道路上出现了哪些短期障碍？我认为有三个。
The first obstacle is in the
advanced economies. There is the emerging risk of what I call “low-flation,”
particularly in the Euro Area. A potentially prolonged period of low inflation
can suppress demand and output—and suppress growth and jobs. More monetary
easing, including through unconventional measures, is needed in the Euro Area
to raise the prospects of achieving the ECB’s price stability objective. The
Bank of Japan also should persist with its quantitative easing policy.
第一个障碍在先进经济体。浮现了被我叫做“低通胀”的风险，尤其是在欧元区。潜在持续低通胀会压抑需求和产出，以及增长和就业。欧元区需加大货币宽松力度，包括采取非常规措施，从而改善实现欧洲中央银行物价稳定目标的前景。日本银行也应持续实施量化宽松政策。
The second obstacle is in the
emerging market economies. Corporate leverage has been rising, and there is a
risk of heightened market volatility associated with the tapering of
quantitative easing in the U.S. This is combined with a generally less benign
external financial climate. What we saw from the recent bouts of market
volatility is that countries with weaker fundamentals—larger domestic and
external imbalances—are likely to be more affected. By the same token, strong
policy responses by those economies are likely to be the best safeguard against
turbulence.
第二个障碍在新兴市场经济体。企业杠杆一直在上升，存在与美国逐步退出量化宽松相关的市场波动加剧的风险，加上总体而言，外部金融环境不利。我们从近几轮的市场波动看到，基本面更加薄弱的国家，即国内外失衡较严重的国家，很可能会受到更大程度的影响。同样，这些经济体采取强有力的政策应对措施很可能是防止动荡的最好防护方法。
Navigating the choppy waters of
financial normalization will require a collaborative approach among all
countries. That means building a shared understanding of the risks and the
policy responses. It means cooperation among central banks and financial
regulators to contain adverse policy “spillovers” and subsequent feedback to
source countries—”spillbacks.” It also means, and as I have emphasized repeatedly,
continued, clear communication among all central banks.
驶过金融正常化这片波涛汹涌的水域要求所有国家采取合作的方法。那意味着在风险和应对措施方面能形成共同认识，意味着央行和金融监管当局之间通过合作控制政策的负面“溢出”以及随后对溢出来源国的反馈，即“溢回”，还意味着，正如我反复强调的那样，所有央行之间要持续、清晰地沟通。
The third obstacle is the rise of
geopolitical tensions, which could cloud the global economic outlook. The
situation in Ukraine is one which, if not well managed, could have broader
spillover implications. There are also other cases of geopolitical tension.
Resolving them requires not only good policies, but good politics. Both are
essential to enable the global economy to move into a higher gear.
第三个障碍是地缘政治冲突的抬头，这会给全球经济前景蒙上阴影。乌克兰局势是一个例子，如控制不好，会产生广泛的溢出影响。此外，还有其他一些地缘政治冲突的例子。解决冲突不仅要求有好的政策，还要有好的政治。二者均是推动全球经济进入高档运行的关键。
3.
Reaching Cruising Speed for Medium-term Growth 三、使中期增长达到巡航速度
This brings me to my third and
final topic—how do we reach cruising speed over the medium-term? How do we
achieve higher quality, more sustainable growth that is more broadly shared?
这是我要探讨的第三个，也是最后一个话题，即如何在中期达到巡航速度？如何实现被更广泛分享的更高质量、更可持续的增长？
We know that the costs of
continued sluggish growth are high: modest income gains and meager reductions
in unemployment and inequality. Indeed, the risk is that without sufficient
policy ambition, the world could fall into a medium-term low growth trap. How
can we avoid this?
我们知道，增长持续低迷的代价高昂：收入增长不快，且失业和不平等的改善不足。事实上，这里的风险是，没有充分的政策雄心，世界可能跌入中期低增长陷阱。我们应如何加以避免？
We first need to fix problems
that have been with us for some time during the crisis:
首先，需解决危机期间存在了一段时间的问题：
·Unemployment—far too many people
are still out of work, especially young people;
·失业——仍有太多的人失业，特别是青年人；
·High levels of debt—meeting the
challenge of fiscal consolidation while safeguarding growth; and
·债务水平高——在保障增长的同时，应对财政整顿的挑战；以及
·Financial uncertainty—completing
the reforms necessary to place the global financial system on a sounder
footing.
·金融不确定性——完成必要的改革，使全球金融体系的根基更加稳健。
While some progress has been made
on each of these, none has yet been overcome.
每个问题的解决都取得了一定进展，但没有一个问题得到解决。
The economic, fiscal, and
monetary policies that I have already mentioned are a big part of the solution.
But with space for supportive policies narrowing in many countries, the role of
structural reforms as a policy lever will increase.
我已提到的经济、财政和货币政策是解决方法的主要组成部分。但随着许多国家的支持政策空间缩小，结构性改革作为政策杠杆的作用将上升。
What does that mean in practical
terms? It means more and better-targeted investment, more labor market reforms,
and more product market and services reforms.
实践中，这意味着什么？意味着增加更有针对性的投资，扩大劳动力市场改革，加强产品市场和服务改革。
First, public investment has
taken a hit over the years in many countries; higher, well-prioritized
investment would increase potential output and jobs. In Brazil, India, South
Africa, and across the ASEAN countries, more public and private investment is
essential to close infrastructure gaps. Investment to upgrade existing
infrastructure networks is also needed in a number of the advanced
economies—for instance, in Germany and the U.S.
首先，多年来，许多国家的公共投资遭受重创。扩大并按照轻重缓急进行投资将增加潜在产出和就业。在巴西、印度、南非和所有东南亚国家联盟成员国，增加公共和私人投资是消除基础设施缺口的关键。许多先进经济体也需投资升级现有基础设施网络，例如，德国和美国。
Second, inclusive labor market
reforms can go a long way in boosting potential growth. In countries with aging
populations, increasing participation of underrepresented groups can help to
keep them dynamic. In Korea, for example, measures to increase the
participation of women and older workers should appreciably boost potential
growth and more than offset the impact of aging. Recent IMF research has
pointed out that, in many countries, increasing women’s participation in the
workforce can be a powerful impetus to growth.
其次，包容性劳动力市场改革能持续促进潜在增长。在人口老龄化的国家，代表性不足的群体劳动参与扩大有助于保持国家活力。例如，在韩国，提高妇女和老龄工人劳动参与的措施应该能明显促进潜在增长，并且远不止抵消老龄化产生的影响。近期，基金组织的研究指出，在许多国家，提高妇女在劳动力中的参与度会给增长带来巨大动力。
In countries with high levels of
youth unemployment or informality, labor market reforms can be critical in
avoiding a lost generation. In Mexico, for example, it is estimated that
reforms to reduce hiring barriers in the formal sector could create nearly
400,000 new jobs annually.
在青年人失业水平或不正规程度高的国家，劳动力市场改革是避免出现迷失的一代的关键。例如，在墨西哥，据估计，减少正规行业雇佣障碍的改革每年可创造近40万份新工作。
Third, reforms to product markets
and services can help break down vested interests, boost competition, and
unleash huge growth and employment potential. This is the case not only in
advanced economies such as Japan or Germany, but also in emerging market
economies such as China.
第三，产品市场和服务改革有助于打垮既得利益，推动竞争，并释放巨大的增长和就业潜力。不仅先进经济体如此，例如，日本或德国，新兴市场经济体也是如此，例如，中国。
Why? Because the innovation and
productivity that underpin the services sector are the drivers of a modern
economy. Think technology, communications, or finance. These, in turn, depend
on effective, accountable and rules-based institutions.
为什么呢？因为支撑服务业的创新和生产力是现代经济的推动因素。想一想技术、通信或金融。这些反过来又依赖有效、可问责并以规则为基础的机构。
That is why capacity building
efforts are so important. That is also why capacity building is the largest
service that the IMF provides today—in almost 90 percent of our 188 member
countries, as diverse as Greece, Georgia and Guinea.
这是能力建设为何如此重要的原因，也是能力建设如今为何是基金组织提供的最大服务的原因，我们为188个成员国中几乎90%的成员提供该服务，像希腊、格鲁吉亚和几内亚一样具有多元性。
In Myanmar, for example, which I
visited late last year, we are making a major effort to strengthen key areas of
macroeconomic management as the country strives for reform. And through the
IMF, the international community is coming together to help the country open up
to the world.
例如，在我去年底访问的缅甸，我们正在作出重要努力，从而在该国推进改革时，加强其宏观经济管理的关键领域。同时，通过基金组织，国际社会汇聚在一起，共同帮助缅甸向世界开放。
All of which brings us back to
where I began—on the role of the IMF and the importance of cooperation.
所有这些让我们回到了我开始的话题，即基金组织的作用与合作的重要性。
Conclusion 结论
On that note, let me conclude.
说到这里，让我总结一下。
In many ways, the world is at a
critical juncture: emerging from the greatest financial crisis in almost a
hundred years. Recovery is taking hold but is too slow and it faces several
obstacles along the road. Bold policy steps can overcome these obstacles and
take the global economy to the next level of more rapid and sustainable growth.
从许多方面看，世界正处于关键时点：走出几乎百年来最严重的一次金融危机。复苏正在稳固，但太缓慢，并且在复苏道路上面临多个障碍。大胆的政策措施能克服这些障碍，并将全球经济推向下一个更快、更可持续增长的水平。
I have outlined a number of those
steps today and they will be discussed further by our global membership next
week. It is already clear that one policy step, above all, is key: a
strengthening of international cooperation, a renewed commitment to
multilateralism.
今天，我提纲挈领地列出了其中的许多措施。下周，我们来自全球的成员国将进一步讨论这些措施。已经明朗的是，有一项政策措施尤其关键，即加强国际合作，重新致力于多边主义。
In our interconnected 21st
century, no country can go it alone. National prosperity and global prosperity
are linked; they depend, more than ever before, on our working together. The
IMF is indispensable for this global cooperation.
在我们彼此关联的21世纪，没有一个国家可以独善其身。国家的繁荣和全球繁荣联系在一起；与以往任何时候相比，这更加依赖我们的共同努力。基金组织在这种全球合作中不可或缺。
Victor Hugo said: “Perseverance
is the secret of all triumphs.”
维克多·雨果曾说过：“毅力是一切胜利的秘诀。”
The global economy is turning the
corner—we need to persevere and push on together to complete the journey.
全球经济正在转弯，我们需坚持不懈，一同继续前进，完成旅行。
Thank you.
谢谢。 |
