国际货币基金组织总裁拉加德在乔治城大学外交学院的演讲（中英对照）

1. State of the Global Economy – A New Mediocre?

1、全球经济状况——新平庸？

First, a quick health check on the global economy. We will be releasing our updated forecasts next week, so today I will touch only upon the broad trends.

首先，给全球经济做一个快速体检。下周，我们将发布最新预测数据，所以今天我仅简要谈谈大体趋势。

Overall, the global economy is weaker than we had envisaged even six months ago. Only a modest pickup is foreseen for 2015, as the outlook for potential growth has been pared down.

总体而言，全球经济甚至比我们六个月前的预想还要疲软。由于潜在增长前景展望调低，预计2015年的经济增长仅会小幅改善。

Prospects differ, of course, across countries and regions. In fact, this is one of the most striking characteristics of the current economic conjuncture: it is very country-specific.

当然，不同国家和地区之间的前景存在差异。事实上，这是当前经济紧要关头最引人注目的特征之一，即国别差异非常明显。

Among advanced economies, the rebound is expected to be strongest in the United States and the United Kingdom; modest in Japan; and weakest in the Euro Area, within which there are disparities.

在先进经济体中，预计美国和英国的经济反弹力度最强；日本适中；欧元区最弱，但其成员国之间存在差异。

Emerging market and developing economies have been doing much of the heavy lifting during this crisis – accounting for more than 80 percent of world growth since 2008. Led by Asia, and China in particular, we expect that they will continue to help drive global activity. For them too, however, it is likely to be at a slower pace than before.

危机期间，全球经济增长主要由新兴市场和发展中经济体拉动。自2008年以来，它们在全球经济增长中的比重超过80%。在亚洲，特别是中国的带领下，我们预计这些经济体将继续推动全球经济增长。然而，它们的经济增速也很可能慢于之前。

For the low-income developing countries, including Sub-Saharan Africa, economic prospects are rising – with growth projected broadly to accelerate beyond the 6 percent recorded last year. But as debt builds up in some countries, they need to be watching as well.

包括撒哈拉以南非洲在内的低收入发展中国家的经济前景正在改善，预计经济增长普遍会超过去年6%的水平。但随着一些国家债务的积累，它们也需保持警惕。

Finally, in the Middle East, the outlook is clouded by difficult economic transitions and by intense social and political strife.

最后，艰难的经济转型和紧张的社会与政治冲突笼罩着中东经济增长前景。

The bottom line? Six years after the financial crisis began, we see continued weakness in the global economy. Countries are still dealing with the legacies of the crisis, including high debt burdens and unemployment. In addition, there are some serious clouds on the horizon:

底线？金融危机爆发六年后，我们发现全球经济中仍存在脆弱性。各国仍在应对危机的遗留问题，包括较大的债务负担和失业问题。此外，我们视野中有一些危险的乌云：

Low growth for a long time is one. What do I mean? If people expect growth potential to be lower tomorrow, they will cut back on investment and consumption today. This dynamic could seriously impede the recovery, especially in advanced economies that are also grappling with high unemployment and low inflation. This is the case for the Euro Area.

长期低增长是其一。这是什么意思呢？如果人们预计明天的增长潜力会下降，他们便会减少今天的投资与消费。这种动态关系会严重阻碍经济复苏，特别是那些还在努力应付高失业和低通胀问题的先进经济体。欧元区便是如此。

There is also a cloud hovering around asynchronous monetary policy normalization in advanced economies and its potential spillovers to other countries around the world – and back – both through their impact on interest rates and exchange rate variations.

还有一片乌云笼罩着先进经济体不同步的货币政策正常化及其对世界其他国家产生的潜在溢出影响和溢回影响，均通过对利率和汇率变动产生影响。

As well as these “economic” clouds, there are financial ones. There is concern that financial sector excesses may be building up, especially in advanced economies. Asset valuations are at an all time high; spreads and volatility are at an all time low.

除了这些“经济”乌云之外，还有金融乌云。有人担忧金融部门的过剩问题可能正在积累，尤其是先进经济体。资产估值正处于历史高点；而利差和波动性正处于历史低点。

A further worry is the migration of new market and liquidity risks to the “shadows” of the financial world. This is part of the less-regulated, nonbank sector, which is growing rapidly in some countries. In the United States, for example, shadow banking is now considerably larger than the traditional banking system; in Europe, it is roughly half the size; and in China, at 25-35 percent, it is the fifth largest shadow banking sector in the world.

更大的担忧是，新市场和流动性风险可能转移至金融世界的“影子”中，即那些未受严格监管的非银行部门的一部分，它在有些国家发展迅猛。例如，美国的影子银行目前显著大于传统银行体系；欧洲影子银行的规模约为传统银行的一半；中国影子银行的规模约相当于传统银行的25-35%，为全球第五大影子银行部门。

Of course, nonbank activities can complement the banking sector in financing the economy in important ways. Yet, the opaqueness of these activities warrants heightened vigilance. They also warrant increased efforts to complete the agenda of financial sector reform, including resolving the too-important-to-fail problem, setting an appropriate perimeter for the monitoring of shadow banks, and making the derivatives markets safer and more transparent.

当然，非银行部门的活动可以在为经济提供融资过程中对银行部门形成重要补充。然而，这些活动的不透明性值得我们提高警惕，还值得我们加倍努力完成金融部门改革议程，包括解决太重要而不能倒的问题，为监测影子银行确定适当范围，以及提高衍生品市场的安全性和透明度。

As well as economic and financial “clouds”, there are geopolitical risks. They include:

除了经济和金融“乌云”之外，还有地缘政治风险，包括：

A possible further escalation of the situation in Ukraine, which could provoke disruptions in commodity prices, financial markets and trade;

乌克兰局势可能进一步升级，进而引发商品价格、金融市场与贸易动荡；

Political developments in the Middle East and in some parts of Asia;

中东和亚洲一些地区的政治发展形势；

And an expansion of the Ebola outbreak in Africa, which could pose a significant risk to the region and indeed the world, if not urgently and appropriately addressed.

以及非洲埃博拉病毒影响范围扩大，如不能得到紧急妥善处理，将给该地区甚至整个世界带来重大风险。

All of these risks, of course, also involve immense human suffering and we hope that they do not develop. But we would be remiss simply to ignore them.

当然，所有这些风险还包括给人类带来的巨大痛苦，我们希望它们不会出现。但如果简单地忽略这些风险，那就是我们的疏忽。