拉加德总裁在2014年货币基金组织/世界银行秋季年会上的演讲（中英对照）

1. Acceleration or stagnation

1、加速或停滞

Let me start with the first and most basic choice of all—acceleration or stagnation. The prospects for growth and jobs. When we look down the road, we all know that there are huge obstacles in our path.

我先讲一下第一个也是大家面临的最基本的选择——加速或停滞，也就是增长和就业的前景。展望前路，我们会发现将有重重障碍。

We experience unprecedented demographic change, as the workforce in many of the world’s most dynamic economies—both advanced and emerging—enters their twilight years. In less than a decade, the over-65s will outnumber the under-5s—for the first time ever.

我们经历了前所未有的人口变化，许多最有活力的经济体（既包括先进经济体也包括新兴经济体）进入劳动力衰退期。在不到十年的时间里，65岁以上人口将首次超过5岁以下人口。

There has been a staggering rise in inequality—7 out of 10 people in the world today live in countries where inequality has increased over the last three decades. And yet, we know that excessive inequality saps growth, inhibits inclusion, and undermines trust and social capital.

不平等现象显著加剧，今天每10个人中有7个人所在的国度，过去三十年来经历了越来越严重的不平等现象。然而，我们知道过度不平等会妨碍增长，损害包容性，破坏信任和社会资本。

And again, we live in a period of dramatic innovation, with all its potential. But the digital revolution is not job-intensive, and it could contribute to further inequalities.

另外，我们生活在一个快速创新、充满巨大潜力的时代。但数字革命不会创造太多就业机会，反而加剧了不平等现象。

If we are not careful, the ghosts of the 19th century will haunt the 21st century.

如果我们不多加小心，19世纪的阴影将笼罩21世纪。

Think also of the ecological carnage that comes with a rapidly warming planet. We all know the stark facts—the 12 warmest years on record have occurred in the last 17 years. The incidence of weather-related disasters has increased threefold since the 1960s. By 2030, almost half of the world’s population will live in regions of high water stress or shortage.

此外，全球快速变暖对生态环境造成了重大破坏。我们都知道这个残酷的现实——历史上温度最高的12个年份都出现在过去17年里。20世纪60年代以来，与天气相关的灾难性事件增加到过去的三倍。到2030年，世界约一半人口将生活在供水压力大或极度缺水的地区。

But the threats to growth do not just come from the future, they assail us from the past.

但是威胁增长的因素不光来自未来，它们从过去就困扰着我们。

What do I mean? I mean that it is taking a very long time for the global economy to climb out of the hole dug by the Great Recession. We expect growth of only 3.3 percent this year, and still under 4 percent next year.

这是什么意思呢？我是说全球经济要经过很长一段时间才能摆脱“大衰退”造成的困境。我们预计今年的增长率只有3.3%，明年也不到4%。

Of even more concern: we are stuck in a painful jobs crisis. 200 million people around the world are looking for work today—if the unemployed formed their own country, it would be the fifth largest in the world. In some regions—southern Europe and North Africa—youth unemployment is now a chronic social problem, leading to widespread disenchantment and disengagement.

更令人担忧的是，我们深陷严重的就业危机。今天，全世界还有2亿人正在找工作。如果失业人口自成一国，那将成为世界第五大国。目前在南欧和北非等地区，年青人失业是一个长期的社会问题，许多人梦想破坏，与社会脱节。

As Dostoyevsky once put it, “deprived of meaningful work, men and women lose their reason for existence”.

正如陀思妥耶夫斯基所言，“如果不从事有意义的工作，人们就失去了存在的理由”。

All told, we risk getting stuck in a “new mediocre” of poor growth and paltry job creation. To overcome it, we need “new momentum” on the policy front.

总而言之，我们可能陷入经济增长疲软、就业创造不足的“新平庸”状态。对此，要在政策方面形成“新势头”予以克服。

On the demand side, monetary policy should certainly continue to support the recovery—and with careful attention to potential spillovers and spillbacks. Fiscal policy must be customized to country circumstances—and we must not give up the gains that have accrued in recent years. At the same time, fiscal policy must be as growth- and jobs-friendly as possible.

在需求方面，货币政策无疑应继续支持复苏，我们要密切注意潜在的溢出和溢回效应。财政政策必须根据各国具体情况而定，我们不能放弃这几年积累的成果。同时，财政政策必须尽可能的促进增长和就业。

On the supply side, we need movement across many dimensions. Opening up cozy monopolies in service industries. Boosting infrastructure investment. Improving educational opportunities, financial inclusion, and the business environment—especially in many emerging markets and low-income countries. Using fiscal instruments—like carbon pricing—both to help make energy use more efficient and to encourage people to make green choices.

在供给方面，我们要多方面行动起来：打破服务业的垄断；促进基础设施投资；改善教育机会、金融服务普及性和商业环境，特别是在许多新兴市场和低收入国家。采用碳定价等财政工具，既帮助提高能源使用效率，又鼓励人们保护环境。

These are not new insights, but action in the past has often lacked. This time the challenge is for real. We must aim higher, try harder, and work better together to achieve higher growth outcomes.

这些并不是什么新的想法，只是以往通常缺乏行动。面对当下切实的挑战，我们要志存高远，奋发图强，加强合作，实现更高的增长。

We also need to make the job market more inclusive. This means active labor market policies and training programs to help young people. It means more family-friendly policies like affordable child-care and flexible working arrangements to entice more women into the workforce.

我们还要使就业市场更具包容性。这意味着要采取积极的劳动力市场政策和培训计划帮助年青人，意味着要采取更有利于家庭的政策，如实惠的保育安排和灵活的工作安排，吸引更多妇女加入到劳动力大军中来。

Remember, an estimated 865 million women around the world are being held back. Yet we know that enabling women to participate on an equal footing with men is an economic game-changer.

我们要记住，全世界约8.65亿妇女没有参与劳动力市场。我们都知道，使女性像男性一样平等参与，是经济活动的变革性因素。

The IMF stands ready to help our members with this agenda—offering country-specific advice on the reforms needed to make growth more sustainable, job-rich, and inclusive. That’s what we are here for.

基金组织已做好准备帮助成员国实施这项议程。它将针对各国具体情况，提出必要的具体改革建议，促进更可持续、创造更多就业以及包容性更强的增长。