拉加德总裁在2014年货币基金组织/世界银行秋季年会上的演讲（中英对照）

2. Stability or fragility

2、稳定或脆弱

What about the second big choice—between stability and fragility? Just as there are present and future threats to growth, there are similar threats to financial stability.

第二个重大选择是稳定与脆弱之间的选择。经济增长面临当前和未来因素的威胁，金融稳定也面临类似的威胁。

While the real economy might suffer from too little investment, the financial sector might be flying too close to the sun. Putting it another way, there is too little economic risk taking, and too much financial risk taking.

一方面投资太少可能影响实体经济发展，另一方面金融部门可能承担过高风险。换句话说，经济风险承担不足，而金融风险承担过度。

Again, monetary policy needs to stay accommodative, to get the growth we need. Yet one side effect is the danger, once again, of a rush toward reckless risk taking.

此外，为了实现必要增长，必须继续实行宽松的货币政策，但会产生副作用，即不计后果地承担风险所带来的危害。

While there are a number of warning signs, the risks are particularly acute in the nonbank sector. One example: mutual funds now account for 27 percent of global high-yield debt, twice as much as in 2007. At the same time, risks are more concentrated—the top ten global asset management firms now control a whopping $19 trillion. This is larger than the world’s largest economy—the United States.

尽管有不少预警信号，非银行部门的风险尤其严重。比如，目前共同基金占全球高收益债务的27%，是2007年的两倍。同时，风险越来越集中，全球前十大资产管理公司现在控制了19万亿的庞大资产，规模比全球最大经济体美国还大。

History teaches us a clear lesson—the bigger the boom, the bigger the bust. A sudden shift in sentiment could easily cascade across the entire globe.

历史清楚地告诉我们——繁荣时越是兴旺，萧条时的破坏就愈严重。情绪的突然转变很容易延伸到全球。

This feeds into the longer-term issue that affects financial stability—the increasing interconnectedness of the world economy. As you know, financial flows can zap and zoom across the world at lightning speed.

这就造成了影响金融稳定的长期问题——世界经济日益增强的互联性。我们都知道，资金能迅速地在全球流动。

The degree of financial integration has jumped tenfold since the IMF was founded. In the two decades before the crisis, international bank lending—as a share of world GDP—rose by 250 percent.

自基金组织成立以来，金融一体化程度已提高到从前的十倍。危机爆发前的二十年里，国际银行贷款占世界GDP的比重上升了250%。

This interconnectedness offers great benefits—allowing more people to access global financial networks. But it also comes with a dark side: it makes financial crises more likely to occur, and more virulent when they do occur. 2008 was a stark reminder of this.

互联性带来了巨大的惠益，使更多人能进入全球金融网络。但同时也有不好的一面：金融危机发生的可能性增大，爆发时影响更恶劣。2008年就说明了这一点。

Ultimately, we need to be able to garner the good and banish the bad. We need to be proactive, not passive.

归根结底，我们要有能力趋利避害，要积极主动，而不是消极被动。

As Tagore once said, “You can’t cross the sea merely by standing and staring at the water”.

正如泰戈尔所言，“你无法只站在那里看海就能渡海”。

That means we need the right tools and policies. If financial markets are more challenging, then policies must be more powerful, and regulators and supervisors must be better equipped. The bottom line? We must complete the financial sector reform agenda, and we must continue to update it as financial minds are creative and fertile in seeking out new loopholes.

这说明我们需要恰当的工具和政策。如果金融市场面临更多挑战，那就必须采取更有力的政策和更完备的监管。最终，我们必须完成金融部门改革议程，必须不断更新，因为丰富且有创意的金融观念总能找出新的漏洞。

We have made good progress, especially on banking regulation. Yet we still need to overcome the too-important-to-fail problem. We need better rules for nonbanks, better monitoring of shadow banks, and better safety and transparency over derivatives. We need to strengthen macroprudential safeguards.

我们取得了长足的进展，特别是在银行监管领域。但我们仍需克服银行太大以至于不能倒闭的问题。我们要进一步制定非银行监管规则，更好地监测影子银行，提高衍生品的安全性和透明度。我们还要加强宏观审慎保障。

And let’s be candid: we need to see a change in culture and behavior. We need to move away from the myopic mentality that led to the crisis—the tendency to prize profit over prudence, self-interest over service, excess over ethics.

坦率地讲，我们要在文化和行为方面有所改变。我们要抛弃造成危机的浅薄思想，这种倾向导致利益凌驾于审慎之上，个人利益高于服务意识，贪婪战胜道德。

The IMF has a key role to play in coping with this new world of interconnections.

基金组织在应对这种新的世界互联性中发挥重要作用。

A world of large capital flows means that we need a large global safety net. Regional arrangements—including the new BRICs contingency reserve arrangement—certainly have an important role to play. But the IMF, as the only truly global institution focused on financial stability, must have adequate instruments and resources.

大量资金流意味着我们要有大规模的全球安全网。区域性安排（包括新的金砖国家应急储备安排）无疑扮演着重要角色。但基金组织作为唯一一个重点关注金融稳定的真正全球性机构，必须掌握充分的工具和资源。

It is a lesson that has been learned many times over the past 70 years: a strong global economy requires a strong IMF.

过去70年的经历已经多次告诉我们：强大的全球经济需要有力的基金组织。