世界银行常务副行长兼首席运营官英卓华在亚太经合组织财长会议上的讲话（中英对照）

英文版：Remarks at APEC Finance Ministers’ Meeting Beijing, China.doc

中文版：英卓华在亚太经合组织财长会议上的讲话.doc

Remarks at APEC Finance Ministers’ Meeting

在亚太经合组织财长会议上的讲话

 

Sri Mulyani Indrawati, Managing Director and Chief Operating Officer

世界银行常务副行长兼首席运营官英卓华

 

Beijing, China

中国 北京

 

October 22, 2014

2014年10月22日

 

Global Growth Disappointing – Questions over Fundamentals

全球增长令人失望——关于基本面的问题

 

Thank you. I am very pleased to be here with you today.

 

谢谢各位，我很高兴与各位一起出席这次会议。

 

The picture has changed, and 2014 could turn out to be a disappointing year for the global economy. Global growth has been revised downwards and is now expected at 2.6 percent this year, only marginally up from 2.4 percent in 2013. Over the past three years forecasts have been following a pattern of repeated revisions, pointing towards a systematic underestimation of global headwinds and inadequacies of policy responses.

 

情况发生变化，2014年可能成为全球经济令人失望的一年。全球增长预测 下调，目前预计今年增长2.6%，仅比2013年的2.4%略有回升。在过去三年，预测始终遵循一个反复调整的模式，显示出系统性的对全球逆风估计不足和政策响应力度不足。

 

Sentiments are clearly changing, and in my view this raises questions over the fundamentals in developed countries. Many are getting skeptical of the growth story going forward, especially in Europe. We should not be surprised if we are heading towards another downward revision of our forecasts, especially for 2015. 

 

情绪明显在改变，我认为这对发达国家的基本面提出了质疑。很多人对未来的增长前景越来越抱着怀疑态度，特别是在欧洲。如果再出现一轮预测下调，我们也不应感到惊讶。

 

At the World Bank we are of course looking into what this means for emerging and developing economies. Growth in major emerging countries has been slowing down since the crisis, with some improvements and new pockets of vulnerabilities. In good news, India’s economy is picking up, while growth in China is slowly moderating and headwinds have strengthened in Latin America and emerging Europe.

 

我们世界银行当然会研究这对新兴经济体和发展中经济体的含意。自危机爆发以来主要新兴市场国家的增长速度一直在放慢，局部有所改善同时也出现新的脆弱点。印度经济正在回升，而中国增速逐渐放慢，拉丁美洲和欧洲新兴经济体遭遇强逆风。

 

In China, growth will gradually moderate to 7.4 percent in 2014 and 7.1 percent in 2016, reflecting intensified policy efforts to address financial vulnerabilities and structural constraints, in an effort to place the economy on a more sustainable growth path.

 

在中国，预计2014年增速逐渐放慢至7.4%，2016年至7.1%，这反映出政府进一步加大针对金融脆弱性和结构性限制的政策努力，以使经济走上更具可持续性的增长轨道。

 

Developing East Asia and Pacific will remain the fastest-growing region in the world. APEC emerging markets and developing economies are expected to account for about 1/3 of world growth. The rest of the region, growth will bottom out in 2014.

 

发展中东亚与太平洋地区仍是世界上增长最快的地区。亚太经合组织新兴市场与发展中经济体预计将占世界增长的三分之一。其余地区的增长将在2014年触底反弹。

 

So what needs to be done in emerging and developing countries?

 

那么新兴市场和发展中国家需要做什么？

 

The question is whether we are looking at a cyclical or structural slowdown. There are certainly some cyclical headwinds. As global financial conditions are set to tighten, developing countries have to step up their level of preparedness and strengthen resilience to adjust to the new monetary policy environment. But there are also structural issues at play. As most emerging economies are facing capacity constraints, stronger growth will require accelerated reforms.

 

问题是，我们面临的是周期性还是结构性放缓。当然存在一些周期性逆风。随着全球金融环境进一步收紧，发展中国家必须提高准备度和加强韧性。但是同时也存在结构性问题。由于新兴市场经济体面临产能制约，要想实现更强劲的增长，就需要加快改革步伐。

 

Let me highlight some of these constraints. Unreliable energy supply hampers manufacturing activity in India, Pakistan, Brazil, and the Philippines. Burdensome business and labor regulations and taxation encourage informality and constrains firm size in Brazil, Bangladesh, and India.  We see restrictive trade and investment policies introducing policy uncertainty in Russia. State-owned enterprises and parastatals lead to low-productivity in Eastern Europe and India. Infrastructure bottlenecks hamper market access in parts of East Asia, parts of Sub-Saharan Africa, and Mexico. Weak banking systems constrain lending to productive investments again, in Eastern Europe and India. And unequal access to education reduces labor force participation in Malaysia, parts of the Middle East and North Africa.

 

[注：本部分未有译文。]

 

Despite high growth rates in the last decades, low-income countries could feel the headwinds and could become vulnerable to a slowdown in the rest of the world.  For example, Sub-Saharan Africa is still showing strong growth rates, but the cooling down in high-income and emerging economies like China as well as other external shocks could have an adverse impact.

 

尽管过去十年实现了高增长，但低收入国家可以感觉到逆风来袭，在面临世界其他国家增长放慢的情况下可能会变得脆弱。例如，撒哈拉以南非洲仍显现出强劲的增长率，但高收入经济体和新兴经济体如中国增长降温以及其他外来冲击可能都会带来不利影响。

 

I want to highlight a few areas that are of risks:

 

我想着重说明几个存在风险的领域：

 

First, commodity prices. Growing concern over a slowdown in the Euro Area and emerging economies – including China–, a strong US dollar, a well-supplied oil market and good crop prospects have contributed to a weakening of many commodity prices since the summer. The World Bank energy price index declined by about 6 percent during the third quarter after being broadly stable in the first half of the year. While lower commodity prices will help ease balance of payments pressures in food and energy importing countries, but commodity-exporting countries may feel the pinch because of lower export earnings.

 

首先是大宗商品价格。对欧元区和新兴经济体包括中国增速放慢的担忧日益增大，美元持强，石油市场供应充足，农作物丰收在望，这些因素都导致了很多大宗商品价格自夏季以来的下跌趋势。世界银行能源价格指数在上半年基本保持稳定之后，三季度下降约6%。虽然大宗商品降价有助于缓解粮食和能源进口国的国际收支压力，但大宗商品出口国则可能由于出口收入减少而感到日子不好过了。

 

Countries with more space for counter cyclical policies, such as Chile and Peru, would be less affected than others, such as Brazil, which have less fiscal buffer space. In East Asia, commodity exporters like Mongolia and Indonesia are examples of countries that could lose as a result of continued price weakness while Cambodia could likely gain as its oil imports become cheaper.

 

与缺少财政缓冲空间的国家如巴西相比，拥有更多反周期政策空间的国家如智利和秘鲁受到的影响较小。在东亚，大宗商品出口国如蒙古和印尼就是可能受大宗商品持续低价影响遭受损失的例子，而柬埔寨则可能受益于石油进口降价。

 

Second, Ebola. This is an external shock playing out right now in West Africa.  We are not only witnessing a very high human and social toll, we also see a real and anxiety-driven impact. Our analysis shows that if the virus continues to surge in the three worst-affected countries and spreads to neighboring countries, the two-year regional financial impact could reach $32.6 billion by the end of 2015, dealing a potentially catastrophic blow to already fragile states.

 

第二是埃博拉疫情。这是一个目前来自西非的外来冲击。我们不仅目睹了高昂的生命和社会代价，而且也看到真实和焦虑造成的影响。我们的分析显示，如果病毒在三个疫情最严重的国家继续蔓延并扩散到周边国家，到2015年年底，两年内对该地区的经济影响有可能达到326亿美元，这将对已经脆弱不堪的国家带来灾难性的打击。我们已看到经济活动和民生受到严重影响，企业和学校关门，农民背井离乡，跨境贸易和国际游客日趋减少。

 

We’re seeing a major disruption of economic activity and people’s livelihoods, with businesses and schools closing, farmers abandoning their fields, and cross-border commerce and international travel declining. We also see the fear factor taking its toll way beyond the actually affected countries. Contagion – not in the medical, but in the psychological sense could have a significant negative impact on fast-growing low-income countries in Africa whose growth is becoming more important for the global economy.

 

我们也看到恐惧因素造成的危害远远超出了实际受影响的国家，不仅在医学意义上而且在心理上，都有可能对非洲高速增长的低收入国家造成严重的负面影响，而这些国家的增长对于全球经济日益重要。

 

Third, political instability. We see serious pockets of concern. In the Middle East, ISIS is causing major disruptions. Another case is the crisis in Ukraine. Combined with the related sanctions it will have a significant impact on that region. Our latest assessment says that Ukraine’s economy will shrink by 8% this year, much more than expected. We are concerned over the stability of banks, the disintegration of key industries and a deterioration of the fragile ceasefire.

 

第三是政局动荡。我们看到一些地区受到严重关注。在中东，伊斯兰国正在造成严重破坏。另一个例子是乌克兰危机，相关制裁雪上加霜，对该地区产生了严重的影响。根据我们的最新评估，乌克兰经济今年将会收缩8%，远远超过原先的预期。我们对银行的稳定、主要产业的解体以及脆弱的停火出现恶化感到担心。

 

Overall, the situation has a profound impact on financial flows, economic activities, and growth prospects, all of which could have implications for Europe’s recovery.

 

总的来说，形势对于资金流动、经济活动和增长前景都有着深刻的影响，而所有这些都可能关系到欧洲的经济复苏。

 

In sum, we are seeing an increasingly fragile recovery of the global economy with major risks out there. Policymakers in high-income and emerging economies need to send a signal of confidence by taking necessary policy steps and tackling reforms to improve their fundamentals.

 

总而言之，我们看到全球经济复苏日趋脆弱，面临重大风险。高收入国家和新兴经济体的政策制定者需要通过采取必要的政策措施和开展改革以改善基本面，从而发出一个提振信心的信号。

 

Thank you.

 

谢谢各位。