国际货币基金组织总裁拉加德在博科尼大学的开幕致辞（中英对照）

2. Unleashing Italy’s Potential – Past is Not Prologue

二、释放意大利的潜力——过去不代表未来

This is where we lay the dark colors on our canvas aside. We need to think bold and colorful when we act, and action is needed on the structural reforms and institutional changes that could unleash Italy’s productivity and growth.

所以，我们要把画布上的暗淡颜色放到一边。当我们行动时，要想着鲜亮、多彩的颜色。我们需要采取行动，实施结构改革，促成制度变化，以释放意大利的生产力和经济增长。

As the father of the “third dimension” that provided perspective and improved contrast, Leonardo revolutionized the way in which we conceive objects and innovate. So just as he would point out that a painting in 3D is far more convincing and appealing to the viewer, let me give you my set of reforms in three dimensions as well.

达·芬奇是“第三维度”之父，赋予图象更全面的视角和更鲜明的对比。他革新了我们构思和创新的方式。所以，如何他今天还在，肯定会说三维画面更有说服力、更吸引观者。那么，我也从三个维度来谈谈改革。

The first dimension is labor market reform. The Italian labor market today suffers from what some call a “duality,” and others refer to as an “insider-outsider” problem. Insiders have permanent contracts with a high degree of protection; while outsiders, mostly young people, are hired on temporary contracts and receive little training.

第一个维度是劳动力市场改革。意大利劳动力市场目前陷入所谓的“双重性”问题，也就是一些人所称的“局内人－局外人”问题。局内人有保护程度更高的永久合同，而局外人（大多是年轻人）是按临时合同雇佣的，几乎得不到培训。

This is not only unfair, but also inefficient. Companies have little incentive to invest in young people. This is why the Jobs Act – and its focus on creating a new labor contract with gradually increasing protection – is so important to tackle pervasive duality and make the market work better for both workers and firms.

这不仅不公平，而且无效率。公司没有什么动力投资于年轻人。这就是为什么《就业法案》（其重点是建立新的用工合同，逐步提高保护程度）非常重要，它有助于解决普遍存在的双重性问题，使市场更好地服务于工人和公司。

Another important element of the Jobs Act is active labor market policies. These include helping the unemployed to receive the training and job search assistance they need. Austria, Finland and Sweden all show that these policies can work. In Sweden for example, incentives for the young unemployed to actively seek jobs are paired with active job matching support and apprenticeship training if needed.

《就业法案》的另一个重要内容是积极的劳动力市场政策。这包括帮助失业者获得所需的培训和就业协助。奥地利、芬兰和瑞典的经验都表明这些政策能够发挥作用。例如，瑞典一方面采取激励措施鼓励失业的年轻人积极寻找工作，一方面提供积极的工作匹配支持和必要的学徒培训。

Even then, the Jobs Act would need to be complemented with measures to lower marginal tax rates – or the “tax wedge” – which discourage investment in labor and capital. Despite recent efforts, this labor tax wedge in Italy remains well above the OECD average.

即使如此，在实施《就业法案》的同时，还需采取措施降低边际税率（也称“税收楔子”，其会阻碍对劳动力和资本的投资）。尽管意大利最近在这方面做出了努力，但其劳动力“税收楔子”仍大大高于经合组织平均水平。

Why is this important? Reducing the labor tax wedge in Italy to the average European level could lower youth unemployment by some 4-8 percentage points. That could mean anywhere from 60,000–130,000 young people going back to work!

这为什么是一个重要问题？将意大利的劳动力“税收楔子”降到欧洲平均水平，可使年轻人失业率下降4-8个百分点。这意味着，6万至13万年轻人将重新找到工作！

New markets and open markets can also be powerful catalysts for job creation. For example, opening up the legal profession and enhancing competition in the retail sector can boost productivity and facilitate movement of workers across sectors where they are most needed.

在就业创造过程中，新的市场和开放的市场也可能发挥有力的催化作用。例如，放开法律行业和加强零售部门的竞争有助于提高生产率，促进工人跨部门流向最需要的领域。

Think back to da Vinci. He changed locations and jobs quite frequently – moving from Firenze to Milano, Roma, Bologna and Venice to Clos Luce in France – and reinventing himself wherever he went – as a painter, sculptor, engineer, anatomist, musician and mathematician. A flexible and open labor market was essential for da Vinci’s entrepreneurial and innovative spirit to thrive. This is the spirit and dynamism that we would like to see rekindled in Italy – a rejuvenated Italy for the 21st century.

再说一说达·芬奇。他经常换地方、换工作。从佛罗伦萨到米兰，到罗马，到波隆那，到威尼斯，到法国的克洛吕斯。每到一处他都换个身份——画家、雕塑家、工程师、解剖学家、音乐家以及数学家。达·芬奇的创业和创新精神能得以蓬勃发展，灵活、开放的劳动力市场必不可少，这就是我们希望在意大利重新点燃的精神和活力——21世纪的意大利复兴。

So labor market reform is the first dimension. The second dimension is judicial reform.

所以，劳动力市场改革是第一个维度。第二个维度是司法改革。

A major factor behind Italy’s weak business environment is its lengthy judicial process. By some estimates, it takes more than a thousand days to enforce a contract in Italy – more than twice the OECD average.

意大利商业环境薄弱的一个主要原因是其司法程序漫长。根据一些估计，在意大利，执行一份合同所花时间长达1000天以上，是经合组织平均水平的两倍多。

And the regional disparities in judicial efficiency are large, especially in labor courts. For example, it takes less than 300 days to resolve a labor dispute in Piemonte or Trentino, but more than a thousand days in Puglia or Sicilia – the regions facing some of the most challenging economic situations.

司法效率的地区差异很大，特别是在劳动力法庭上。例如，在皮埃蒙特或特伦蒂诺地区，解决一项劳动争议所花时间不到300天，而在普利亚或西西里岛（这些地区面临一些最具挑战的经济形势），则不止1000天。

Greater judicial efficiency would lower the cost of credit, encourage investment, and importantly, facilitate employment. In fact, our research on regional disparities suggests that halving the duration of labor disputes raises the probability of being employed by about 8 percent.

提高司法效率能降低信贷成本，鼓励投资，更为重要的是，还能促进就业。事实上，我们对地区差异开展的研究显示，如果将解决劳动争议的时间缩短一半，就业机会将增加约8%。

Measures such as the online civil trial (processo civile telematico) introduced earlier this year can deliver important efficiency gains. The success of the “Strasbourg Program” adopted by the Turin Court is a powerful demonstration that developing court performance indicators can help increase judicial efficiency and accountability. Embedding this approach throughout the country could be a promising next step.

今年早些时候实行的网上民事审判（processo civile telematico）等措施显著提高了效率。都灵法院成功实施了“斯特拉斯堡计划”，有力地证明了制定法院绩效指标有助于提高司法效率和加强问责。下一步可以在意大利全国范围内采用这一方法，这可能是非常有成效的措施。

The third dimension is the banking sector where reform is needed to make it stronger to support the recovery, especially in the small and medium enterprise sector.

第三个维度是银行部门。需要改革银行部门，使其更加强健，为经济复苏特别是中小企业的复苏提供支持。

At present, the financial system in Italy is saddled with bad loans and constrained in its ability to provide credit. The ECB’s comprehensive assessment was an important step in outlining the magnitude of the problem and its potential remedies.

目前，意大利的金融体系充斥着大量坏账，提供信贷的能力受到限制。欧洲中央银行的综合评估是在明确问题严重程度和提供可能的补救办法方面迈出的重要一步。

So what needs to be done? We need insolvency regimes to help businesses and households clean up their balance sheets. The same is true for banks. Write-off rates need to be stepped up significantly to bring down bad debt ratios to pre-crisis levels.

所以，需要采取什么措施？我们需要破产制度，帮助企业和住户清理资产负债表。银行也是如此。需要显著提高注销率，将坏账率降到危机前水平。

By the same token, reviving the small and medium enterprise (SMEs) sector can be crucial in facilitating the flow of credit to the economy. SMEs are the backbone of the Italian economy – they account for about 80 percent of the private sector workforce and 70 percent of business value-added.

同样，重振中小企业对于促进信贷资金流向实体经济至关重要。中小企业是意大利经济的支柱，它们约占私人部门劳动力的80%，商业增加值的70%。

Still, because of high leverage and weak profitability, they are suffering more than large firms from the financial crisis. A broad strategy focused on facilitating the restructuring of the SME sector would be a powerful impetus to growth and job creation.

不过，由于杠杆率高、盈利能力弱，这些中小企业从金融危机中受到的冲击比大企业更严重。应采取广泛的战略，侧重于促进中小企业的重组，这能有力地推动经济增长和就业创造。

Taking them all together: labor market reform, judicial reform, and banking sector reform are the dimensions we need to keep in our field of vision in painting the canvas of strong, inclusive, and job-rich growth in Italy.

把这些改革合起来，即将劳动力市场改革、司法改革和银行部门改革纳入我们的视野，以此描绘出一幅意大利强劲、具有包容性、有利于就业的经济增长前景的油画。

3. Euro Area Policies – Supporting the Recovery

三、欧元区政策——支持复苏

What about Europe? Italy has always been an anchor of European activity and stability – and the mutual prospects of Europe and Italy are inextricably linked.

整个欧洲呢？意大利一直是欧洲经济活动和稳定的重要支点——欧洲和意大利的前景是紧紧交织在一起的。

Indeed, for Italy’s efforts to succeed, they must be complemented by a comprehensive strategy at the Euro Area level to support a durable and robust recovery. The euro zone has to fire on all cylinders.

的确，意大利的改革若要取得成功，必须得到欧元区层面促进持久强劲复苏的综合战略的支持。欧元区必须全力以赴。

Let me start with monetary policy. It has been at the forefront of the policymaking landscape, and needs to continue to play a crucial role in supporting demand.

首先谈谈货币政策。货币政策一直处于政策制定的最前沿，在支持需求方面需要继续发挥关键作用。

The ECB has taken bold steps in recent months – announcing significant outright purchases of private assets, for example. These measures should help prop up demand and fend off the risks from persistently low inflation.

欧洲中央银行近几个月采取了大刀阔斧的措施——例如，宣布大量直接购买私人资产。这些措施应有助于刺激需求和抵御持续低通胀带来的风险。

Even so, should the growth and inflation outlook soften further, the ECB has indicated that it stands ready to expand its balance sheet even more, including through purchases of sovereign assets. This is to be welcomed – but monetary policy alone is not enough.

即使如此，如果增长和通胀前景进一步减弱，欧洲中央银行已表示将随时准备进一步扩大其资产负债表，包括通过购买主权资产。这是令人欢迎的举措，但仅靠货币政策是不够的。

Fiscal policy also has a key role to play – and fiscal measures must be as growth – and job-friendly as possible. Think of cost-effective, efficient pan-European public infrastructure projects that could help lay the foundations for sustained growth. Think of cross-border investments in transportation, communications, and energy networks. These are key ingredients to support innovation and productivity growth.

财政政策也有重要作用——财政措施必须尽可能有利于经济增长和就业。具有成本效益的、高效的泛欧洲公共基础设施项目有助于为持续增长奠定基础。对交通运输、通讯和能源网络的跨境投资也能起到有益作用。这些是支持创新、促进生产力提高的重要措施。

Last, and very importantly, there is some flexibility within the rules of the Stability and Growth Pact to support public investment and implementation of structural reforms. These may vary depending on the specific country, but include streamlining regulatory burdens, opening up product and services markets such as energy, and deepening capital markets. This flexibility should be explored to encourage productive outlays and measures to foster growth and job creation.

最后很重要的一点是，《增长与稳定公约》的规则在支持公共投资和实施结构改革方面具有一定灵活性。具体措施因不同国家而异，但都包括简化监管程序、放开产品和服务市场（如能源）以及深化资本市场。应当运用这种灵活性，鼓励生产性支出以及促进增长和就业的措施。

I know today’s student generation is facing some of the toughest prospects in a very long time. Unemployment, especially of the young, is a blemish on any society. It erodes talent, saps aspiration, and depletes dignity. It is a multifaceted problem, and requires a multipronged solution.

我知道，当今的学生一代面对着长期以来一些最为严峻的前景。失业，特别是年轻人的失业，在任何社会都是一个棘手问题。失业会侵蚀人的才干、削弱人的抱负、损害人的尊严。失业是一个涉及多方面的问题，需要采取多管齐下的解决办法。

The solutions I have laid out are neither in code nor are they spelled from right to left, so you will not need a mirror to decipher them. Cynics may say that reforms take too much time to take effect, and that the immediate outlays are unduly high.

我给大家提出的解决办法不是以密码表示的，也不是从右向左拼写的，所以你们不需要一面镜子来解读。持怀疑态度的人可能会说，改革可能需要太长时间才见成效，而当前的支出看起来可能太高。

But cynicism is a recipe for policy paralysis and economic inertia – a past that could very well be prologue. We must take a different path. One that is not easy, and requires hard work, but one that has the potential to bring about the change that is needed.

但这种怀疑会导致政策麻痹和经济惯性——过去很可能预言了未来。我们必须走另一条路。一条不轻松、需要付出艰苦努力，但有可能带来必要变革的道路。

Italy has so often demonstrated its resilience in the face of difficult circumstances. So today I appeal to you to bet on a new future: one where the Italian genius is once again unleashed, where creativity and dynamism are the hallmarks of broad-based prosperity – among youth, women, entrepreneurs, and all Italians.

意大利在面临困境时总是展示了适应恢复能力。所以，今天我呼吁大家为崭新的未来奋起一搏。在这个未来中，意大利的天赋才能再次得到释放，年轻人、女性、企业家以及所有意大利人将共享繁荣，而创造力和活力是这个繁荣社会的清晰标志。

How would da Vinci advise us? Think of how many years it took him to complete “The Last Supper” – four years by some accounts, and many more if we count the restorations! Yet today it remains one of the most beautiful and awe inspiring pieces of art ever created.

达·芬奇会给我们什么建议？想一想他花了多少年时间才完成“最后的晚餐”——按一些说法是四年，但如果我们算上修复时间，那就多得多了。但是，今天，这幅画仍是最美、最令人震撼的艺术作品之一。

We all hold the tools to thinking, drawing, and building a brilliant future for our youth. Let’s use them wisely.

我们都掌握着思考、描绘、为年轻人创造美好未来的工具。让我们聪明地使用这些工具吧。

Grazie. Thank you.

Grazie。谢谢各位。