国际货币基金总裁拉加德在美国对外关系委员会的演讲（中英对照）

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英文版：Three “Rosetta Moments” for the Global Economy in 2015.doc 

中文版：2015年全球经济的三个“罗塞塔时刻”.doc

Three “Rosetta Moments” for the Global Economy in 2015

2015年全球经济的三个“罗塞塔时刻”

 

Christine Lagarde, Managing Director, International Monetary Fund

国际货币基金组织总裁克里斯蒂娜·拉加德

 

Washington D.C.

华盛顿

 

January 15, 2015

2015年1月15日

 

Good morning!

 

上午好。

 

Diana, thank you for the kind introduction, and thank you to Christopher Tuttle and the Council on Foreign Relations for the opportunity to speak today about the outlook for the global economy in this New Year 2015.

 

戴安娜，谢谢你的热情介绍，谢谢克里斯多夫·塔特尔和对外关系委员会今天给我这个机会，探讨2015年新一年里的全球经济前景。

 

The Council and the IMF have much in common: they both take a global perspective; they were both founded after global conflicts – World War I and World War II; and they both joined the perennial quest for a more peaceful and more prosperous world. I am glad to say that we are still on the same team!

 

对外关系委员会和国际货币基金组织有很多共同点：都从全球视角看问题；都始建于全球战乱之后（第一次世界大战和第二次世界大战）；都长期致力于实现更加和平、更加繁荣的世界。我很高兴地说，我们至今仍在并肩努力。

 

Good teamwork and strong leadership will be needed this year. The latest update of our World Economic Outlook – with all the specific numbers – will be formally presented next week. But I can already say this: despite the boost from cheaper oil and stronger U.S. growth, we see the global recovery continuing to face a very strong headwind.

 

今年，我们需要优良的团队精神和坚强的领导力量。我们将在下个星期正式发布《世界经济展望》最新预测，里面有具体的数字 。但我现在就可以说：虽然油价的下跌和美国增长的加强将助推全球增长，但全球复苏继续顶着强大的逆风。

 

But before I delve into the details of the challenges ahead, I would like to share with you a brief story that has resonated with me.

 

但在深入探讨今后面临的挑战之前，我想与大家简短分享一个对我触动很深的故事。

 

Late last year, on November 12, a little spacecraft operated by the European Space Agency made the first-ever landing on a comet after a 10-year journey covering half a billion miles. Like millions of others, I was mesmerized by the sheer audacity of this adventure.

 

去年11月12日，欧洲航天局操作的一个小型飞船在十年飞行五亿英里之后，第一次在彗星着陆。像数百万其他人一样，我被这次大胆的冒险迷住了。

 

The touchdown on the comet, called 67P, was part of the ongoing “Rosetta” mission, which is led by a multinational team of scientists. Together, these scientists have extended humanity’s reach into the cosmos and, by doing so, they have enhanced our understanding of our own planet. They embody the spirit of those 19th century scholars who used the original Rosetta Stone to decode the ancient Egyptian hieroglyphs.

 

在彗星67P上着陆是目前正在实施的“罗塞塔”计划的一部分，该计划由一组来自多个国家的科学家牵头。这些科学家一起努力，将人类的研究扩展到宇宙，进而增强了对我们自己星球的了解。他们体现了19世纪学者的精神。那些学者用最初的罗塞塔石碑，解读古埃及的象形文字。

 

Why is this story relevant right now? Because this year the global economy will face what we might call three “Rosetta moments”. These are major policy challenges that require decisions based on political courage, decisive action, and multilateral thinking—in short, true global leadership.

 

现在为什么要说起这个故事呢？因为全球经济今年将面临着三个“罗塞塔时刻”。它们是重大政策挑战，需要拿出政治勇气做出决定，需要采取果断的行动，需要多边主义思维方式——简言之，就是需要真正的全球领导力量。

 

The first Rosetta moment is all about boosting growth and employment in the next 12 months – overcoming that “strong headwind” that I mentioned. The second Rosetta moment is about achieving more inclusive, shared growth; and the third is about attaining more sustainable, balanced growth.

 

第一个“罗塞塔时刻”是在未来12月里促进增长和就业——克服我前面提到的“强大逆风”。第二个“罗塞塔时刻”是实现更加包容、广泛共享的增长。第三个“罗塞塔时刻”是实现更加持久、更加均衡的增长。

 

These three moments are, of course, deeply interconnected and mutually dependent. All are important, all demand strong leadership, all require cooperation. But – surely – if we can catch a comet in space, can’t we address the policy challenges here on Earth?

 

当然，这三个时刻紧密相联、相互依赖。它们都非常重要，都需要强有力的领导力量，都需要合作。不过，如果我们能在太空抓住彗星，我们难道不能应对地球上的政策挑战吗？

 

1. Global outlook, risks, and policy actions – injecting new momentum

一、全球前景、风险和政策行动——注入新的动力

 

I will start with the immediate challenge of how to inject greater momentum into the recovery. As I said, we are still in the process of finalizing the hard numbers for our updated forecast. So I will focus on the main trends and policy recommendations.

 

我首先谈谈眼下的挑战，即如何给复苏注入新的动力。正如我刚才提到的，我们仍在最终确定新一期预测的确切数字。所以，我将着重讨论主要趋势和政策建议。

 

The obvious question is this: should lower oil prices and a stronger recovery in the United States make us more upbeat about the prospects for the global economy? The answer is most likely “No,” since there are still powerful factors that weigh on the downside.

 

一个显而易见的问题是：鉴于油价下跌、美国复苏增强，我们是否应更加乐观地看待全球经济前景？答案很可能是否定的，因为仍存在强大的下行力量。

 

Certainly, the drop in oil prices is a welcome shot in the arm for the global economy. Cheaper oil increases consumers’ purchasing power and private demand in oil-importing countries. Depending on how long oil prices will remain at low levels, this could provide a positive contribution to global growth for some time.

 

当然，油价下跌是给全球经济注入的一针强心剂。油价下跌会提高石油进口国的消费者购买力和私人需求。这将在一段时间内对全球增长起到积极促进作用，具体将取决于油价低落持续多久。

 

As for the U.S. economy, it performed well in 2014 and should strengthen further this year – largely due to more robust household spending. U.S. unemployment continues to decline; cheaper oil is boosting real incomes and consumer sentiment; and there is continued support from accommodative monetary policy.

 

美国经济2014年表现很好，今年应进一步加强，主要是得益于更加强劲的家庭支出。美国的失业率继续下降；油价的下跌提高了实际收入、增强了消费者信心；宽松的货币政策继续提供支持。

 

So what is the catch? The oil price and U.S. growth are not a cure for deep-seated weaknesses elsewhere. Too many countries are still weighed down by the legacies of the financial crisis, including high debt and high unemployment. Too many companies and households keep cutting back on investment and consumption today because they are concerned about low growth in the future.

 

那么，问题在哪儿？油价和美国增长不能解决其他国家根深蒂固的问题。太多的国家仍受到金融危机遗留问题的拖累，包括高债务和高失业。太多的企业和家庭当前不断削减投资和消费，因为他们担心今后经济增长缓慢。

 

In fact, the United States is the only major economy that is likely to buck the trend this year, while others are being held back – mainly by lackluster investment. A promising recovery continues in the UK, but growth remains very low in the Euro Area and Japan. And emerging economies, led by China, are slowing down, relatively speaking.

 

事实上，美国是唯一一个今年可能逆势而行的主要经济体，而其他经济体都处于疲弱状态——主要原因是投资不振。英国经济的复苏形势依然乐观，但欧元区和日本的增长仍然非常缓慢。在以中国为主的新兴经济体，经济增长相对而言正在放缓。

 

Risks

风险

 

Overall, we believe that global growth is still too low, too brittle, and too lopsided. Moreover, there are significant risks to the recovery. What are these?

 

总体而言，我们认为，全球增长仍然太缓慢、太脆弱、太不均衡。此外，经济复苏面临显著风险。这些风险有哪些？

 

First, the asynchronous normalization of monetary policies in advanced economies. There has been a lot of talk about this, but this year we should expect it to actually begin. The U.S. could see its first rise in short-term interest rates since 2006 – an important moment. Even if this process is well-managed and well-communicated – and I believe that it has been and will be – there could be negative effects for emerging markets and global financial stability.

 

首先，先进经济体不同步的货币政策正常化过程带来风险。对此已经有大量讨论，但我们预计今年将是实际开始的一年。美国的短期利率自2006年以来可能会第一次上升，这将是一个重要的时刻。即使这一过程得到有效管理和有效沟通（我相信，过去如此，今后也将如此），也可能对新兴市场和全球金融稳定带来负面影响。

 

Second, emerging and developing economies could face a triple hit of a strengthening U.S dollar, higher global interest rates, and more volatile capital flows. A stronger dollar will have a significant impact on financial systems in emerging markets, because many banks and companies have increased their borrowing in dollars over the past five years. The oil price drop – and weaker commodity prices more generally – have added to these risks, with some countries such as Nigeria, Russia, and Venezuela facing huge currency pressures. Given the size of these economies, the recent developments could also have significant regional effects.

 

其次，新兴和发展中经济体可能会遭受美元升值、全球利率上升、资本流动波动加剧的三重打击。美元升值将对新兴市场的金融体系产生重大影响，因为许多银行和公司在过去五年增加了美元借款。油价下跌以及更普遍意义上的商品价格疲软强化了这些风险，尼日利亚、俄罗斯和委内瑞拉等一些国家面临巨大货币压力。鉴于这些经济体的规模，近期形势也可能会产生显著的地区效应。

 

Third, there is a risk that the Euro Area and Japan could remain stuck in a world of low growth and low inflation for a prolonged period. This “low-low environment” would make it even harder for many Euro Area countries to reduce unemployment and excessive public and private debt, and so would raise the risk of recession and deflation.

 

第三，欧元区和日本可能长期陷于低增长和低通胀。在这种“双低环境”下，许多欧元区国家更加难以降低失业以及过高的公共和私人债务，因此出现衰退和通缩的风险会增大。

 

Fourth, there are increased geopolitical risks. In Ukraine, for example, increased international support to complement IMF support is crucial. At the same time, there is a palpable sense that the forces of intolerance and fragmentation are gaining strength. The recent atrocities in France – my home country – in Nigeria, or in Pakistan are only the latest actions of forces that are fundamentally opposed to what we here in this room believe in.

 

第四，地缘政治风险在加剧。例如，增加对乌克兰的国际支持，为基金组织的支持提供补充，这至关重要。同时，人们明显感到，偏狭和分割力量正在增强。法国（我的国家）、尼日利亚和巴基斯坦最近发生的暴行就是那些力量实施的，他们与我们在座各位的信仰完全背离。

 

This all points to one thing: the need for a powerful policy mix that can strengthen the recovery and provide better employment perspectives for citizens worldwide. How can policymakers deliver on this Rosetta moment?

 

所有这些都说明一点：我们需要强有力的政策组合，来加强经济复苏，为各国人民创造更好的就业前景。政策制定者如何实现这个“罗塞塔时刻”？

 

Policy action

政策行动

 

Broadly speaking, accommodative monetary policies remain essential. Fiscal adjustment must be as growth and job-friendly as possible. And above all, policymakers need to finally step up structural reforms. This economic mantra – support demand, growth, and structural reforms – is not new, but now takes on increased urgency. And it places increased emphasis on political leadership.

 

总的来说，宽松的货币政策仍然至关重要。财政调整必须尽可能不损害经济增长和就业。最重要的是，政策制定者最终需要加快结构改革。支持需求、增长、结构改革的“经济口号”并不是新提出来的，但在眼下尤为紧迫，为此，更加需要强有力的政治领导力量。

 

For example, the impact of lower oil prices will prove to be an immediate test for many policy makers. Not so much for oil importers, for whom the windfall provides an opportunity to strengthen their macroeconomic frameworks and may help in alleviating inflation pressures.

 

例如，油价下跌的影响是许多政策制定者当前面临的考验。石油进口国所受影响不大，油价下跌给这些国家带来的节余为其加强宏观经济框架提供了机遇，同时也有助于缓解通胀压力。

 

But oil exporters need to cushion the shock on their economies. Some are using their rainy day funds and fiscal deficits to adjust public spending more gradually. Others resort to allowing substantial exchange rate depreciation, which poses the risk of inflation and may require tighter monetary policies.

 

但石油出口国需要缓冲其对本国经济的冲击。一些国家利用应急备用资金和财政赤字逐步地调整公共支出。其他国家则让汇率大幅贬值，而这带来通胀风险，可能需要收紧货币政策。

 

In the Euro Area, cheaper oil is contributing to a further decline in inflation expectations, which increases the risk of deflation. This bolsters the case for additional monetary stimulus, which the European Central Bank has indicated it stands ready to support as needed.

 

在欧元区，油价的下跌导致通胀预期进一步下降，从而增加通缩风险。这进一步表明，需要加大货币刺激力度（欧央行已经表示随时准备在必要时提供支持）。

 

Most importantly, however, the drop in oil prices provides a golden opportunity to cut energy subsidies and use the savings for more targeted transfers to protect the poor – for which the IMF has been pushing hard. We have recently seen a successful decrease in fossil fuel subsidies in countries such as Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, Egypt, Haiti, India, Indonesia, and Malaysia. In some advanced countries, policymakers should also seize the moment to increase energy taxes to build fiscal buffers or reduce other taxes, especially on labor.

 

但最重要的是，油价的下跌也提供了极好的机会，使有关国家得以削减能源补贴，并将节余资金用于更有针对性的转移，以保护贫穷人口。基金组织一直在推进这项工作。喀麦隆、科特迪瓦、埃及、海地、印度、印度尼西亚和马来西亚等国最近成功削减了矿物燃料补贴。在一些先进经济体，政策制定者也应抓住时机，提高能源税，以建立财政缓冲或降低其他税收（特别是对劳动力的征税）。

 

This, of course, requires political courage – which it has in common with the 2nd Rosetta moment: how to achieve more inclusive, more shared growth over the medium term.

 

这当然需要政治勇气，第二个“罗塞塔时刻”也是如此——在中期内如何实现更具包容性、更广泛共享的增长。