英文版：Monetary Policy in the New Normal.doc

中文版：新常态下的货币政策.doc

Monetary Policy in the New Normal

新常态下的货币政策

 

– Remarks at 2015 China Development Forum Panel Discussion

在中国发展高层论坛专题讨论上的发言

Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of International Monetary Fund

国际基金组织总裁克里斯蒂娜·拉加德

Beijing, March 22, 2015

北京，2015年3月22日

Introduction

引言

 

Good afternoon, Ladies and Gentlemen.

 

女士们，先生们，下午好。

 

I would like to thank Mr. ZHANG Liming, Vice President of the Development Research Center, for his kind introduction, and thank you to the Development Research Center for inviting me to this important panel.

 

感谢发展研究中心副主任张来明的介绍，并感谢发展研究中心邀请我参加这一重要的

专题讨论。

 

It is a great pleasure to share this stage with Governor Zhou, who has so deftly guided China’s monetary policy over the past decade. China played a key role in stabilizing the global economy during the financial crisis, and has since provided vital support to the recovery.

 

非常高兴与周小川行长一起出席这一环节的讨论会。过去十年里，周行长娴熟地引导管理了中国的货币政策。中国在全球金融危机期间对稳定全球经济发挥了关键作用，并在此后为经济复苏提供了至关重要的支持。

 

The world has yet to achieve full economic recovery. Global growth continues to be weighed down by high debt, high unemployment, and lackluster investment. The IMF recently cut its global growth forecasts for both 2015 and 2016 (to 3.5% and 3.7%) – despite the boost from cheaper oil and stronger U.S. Growth.

 

世界尚未实现全面经济复苏。全球增长继续受到高债务、高失业和投资乏力的拖累。尽管油价下跌和美国经济增长加强对全球经济起到了促进作用，但基金组织最近仍下调了2015年和2016年的全球增长预测（分别降至3.5%和3.7%）。

 

The recovery remains fragile because of significant risks. One such risk emanates from the expected tightening, or normalization, of U.S. monetary policy at a time when many other countries are easing monetary conditions. This “asynchronous” monetary policy may trigger excessive volatility in global financial markets.

 

由于面临显著风险，经济复苏依然脆弱。其中一个风险是，美国货币政策预计将收紧或正常化，而其他许多国家正在货币宽松。这种“不同步”的货币政策可能引起全球金融市场出现过度波动。

 

The divergence of monetary policy paths has already led to a significant strengthening of the U.S. dollar. Emerging markets could be vulnerable, because many of their banks and companies have sharply increased their borrowing in dollars over the past five years.

 

货币政策路径的差异已经引起美元大幅走强。新兴市场可能容易受到不利影响，因为它们的很多银行和企业在过去五年里大量增加了美元借款。

 

Given these global economic conditions, I would like to briefly discuss three points:

 

鉴于上述全球经济状况，我想简要讨论三点：

 

• What are the cross-border effects, or “spillovers”, of unconventional monetary policies?

• 非常规货币政策有哪些跨境影响或“溢出效应”？

 

• How can emerging market economies prepare for potential market volatility?

• 新兴市场经济体如何做好准备应对潜在市场波动？

 

• What is the nature of monetary policy in what we call the “new normal”?

• 我们所称的“新常态”下的货币政策具有什么性质？

 

1. What are the spillovers of unconventional monetary policies?

1、非常规货币政策有哪些溢出效应？

 

Let me start with the spillover effects. After the onset of the global financial crisis in 2007, unconventional monetary policies, including large purchases of government debt, had strong, positive spillovers on the global economy – and by implication on China and other emerging market economies.

 

我首先谈谈溢出效应。2007爆发全球金融危机后，非常规货币政策（包括大量购买政府债务）对全球经济从而也对中国和其他新兴市场经济体产生了强劲的正面溢出效应。

 

Why? Because these policies prevented a financial market meltdown and because they have supported the recovery in advanced economies and beyond. I am convinced that, without these unconventional tools, the world would have sunk into a1930s-style depression.

 

为什么？因为这些政策防止了金融市场崩溃，并支持了发达经济体和其他经济体的复苏。我确信，如果没有采取这些非常规工具，世界将会陷入类似于上世纪30年代的萧条。

 

Unconventional monetary policies have also led to negative spillover effects on emerging markets through a build-up of financial stability risk. These policies triggered huge capital inflows into emerging financial markets. Between 2009 and the end of 2012, emerging markets received US$ 4½ trillion of gross capital inflows, representing about half of global capital flows during that period.

 

非常规货币政策导致金融稳定风险积累起来，所以也对新兴市场产生了负面溢出效应。这些政策引起资本大量流入新兴金融市场。在2009年到2012年底之间，新兴市场接受的资本流入总额达4.5万亿美元，约占同期全球资本流量的一半。

 

This led to a significant increase in bond and equity prices and to a strengthening of emerging market currencies. IMF studies suggest that these effects were larger than the ones that had been caused by conventional policies in the past.

 

这导致新兴市场的债券和股票价格大幅上涨、货币升值。基金组织的研究显示，这些效应大于过去常规政策引发的效应。

 

These spillovers pose a risk to financial stability in emerging markets, because policy changes could easily lead to a sudden reversal of capital flows.

 

这些溢出效应给新兴市场的金融稳定带来风险，因为政策变化很容易导致资本流动的突然逆转。

 

We already saw a preview of this scenario during the so-called “taper tantrum” in the summer of 2013. Merely the first hint of a change in U.S. monetary policy was enough to trigger a surge in financial market and capital flow volatility.

 

在2013年夏天的所谓“缩减恐慌”中，我们已经看到了这种情景的预演。美国货币政策刚一出现调整迹象，就足以引起金融市场和资本流动的剧烈波动。

 

Could this happen again? Despite the efforts of the U.S. Federal Reserve to clearly communicate its policy intentions, financial markets may still be surprised by the timing of the U.S. interest rate lift-off and by the pace of subsequent rate increases.

 

这种情况还会发生吗？尽管美联储已尽力明确地沟通了其政策意向，金融市场仍可能对美国开始加息的时机以及随后的加息步伐感到出乎意外。

 

The potential spillovers would affect China mostly through its trade relationships with other emerging markets. If spillovers were to cause a sustained weakness in demand in these countries, Chinese exports would certainly be affected.

 

潜在溢出效应影响中国的主要渠道是中国与其他新兴市场的贸易关系。如果溢出效应导致这些国家的需求持续疲软，那么中国的出口显然会受影响。

 

Given the growing importance of this topic, the IMF has continued to step up its analysis of spillover effects. We believe that this will continue to be one of our most valuable contributions in this interconnected global economy, and it may also encourage greater policy cooperation.

 

鉴于这一问题日益重要，基金组织继续加强了对溢出效应的分析。我们相信，这仍将是我们在相互关联的全球经济中做出的最有价值的贡献之一，它还有可能促进政策合作的加强。