戴秉国在美国战略与国际问题研究中心的演讲（中英对照）

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在美国战略与国际问题研究中心的演讲

Remarks at the Center for Strategic and International Studies

 

戴秉国

Dai Bingguo

 

2016年7月1日

July 1, 2016

 

尊敬的哈姆雷总裁，

女士们，先生们，朋友们，

 

President John Hamre,

Ladies and Gentlemen,

Friends,

 

你们好，

 

我退休三年多了，这是第二次来美国。很想念我的一些美国朋友。这三年多世界变化很快、很大。所以我想在这里同你们这些智慧的大脑进行一点沟通交流，从中长点见识。

 

Good afternoon. This is my second time in the United States after my retirement more than three years ago, and I missed my American friends a lot. Over the time, the world has seen fast and big changes. That’s why I am here to exchange ideas with you and learn more from the wise brains.

 

我着重就世界、中国和中美关系说点个人看法。

 

I wish to share with you some of my observations on the world, on China and on China-US relations.

 

一、怎么看世界

1. On the world

 

环顾世界，当今世界的确有些乱，天下很不太平。例如，西亚北非地区这个好地方不仅发展不起来，反而陷入了持久的动乱之中，极端主义、恐怖主义在这里横行猖獗；在欧洲中心地带，好端端的乌克兰竟然成为牵动世界的新动荡源，还看不到危机解决的尽头；长期以来过着富裕安宁生活的欧洲人遭遇了数十年未有的多重冲击，几天前还发生了震动世界的“英国脱欧”事件；很多人曾经向往的美利坚合众国各种枪击事件、恐怖事件、街头群众抗议事件频繁发生，等等。

 

As we look around, we find some places in our world in a state of chaos and far from being tranquil. For instance, West Asia and North Africa, despite favorable endowments for development, have instead been caught in persistent turmoil with rampant extremist and terrorist forces. In the center of Europe, Ukraine has unexpectedly become a new source of turbulence that has repercussions worldwide, and one cannot see when the crisis will be resolved. Europeans who have lived for decades in prosperity and tranquility have experienced multiple shocks never seen before, including the shocking “Brexit” just a few days ago. In a place as east and tranquil as the South China Sea, the situation is not calm and temperature of water is rising. The United States that many people have longed for also witnessed shootings, terrorist attacks and mass street protests.

 

凡此种种，使一些人觉得，我们人类共同生活的这个星球乱得一塌糊涂了，形势是一团漆黑了，没有什么希望了。我个人认为，全面地看，从本质上看，世界形势的主流还是要和平、要发展、要合作、要进步，大趋势是好的，不是一团漆黑，人类的前途是光明的。

 

These have made some people think that our planet is in total mess, darkness and hopeless. But my belief is that as a whole and in essence, the world’s mainstream is still for peace, development, cooperation and progress. The major trend is positive, and the prospect for mankind is a bright rather than a dark one.

 

为什么这样说呢？比如：第二次世界大战过去70年了，至今仍然保持着总体和平，没有发生新的世界大战，乌克兰危机也没能把美、欧、俄拖入大规模战争。战后几十年，世界经济快速发展了，人类创造的财富大大增加了，2008年席卷世界的经济、金融危机也没能终止人类科技进步、经济向前发展的势头，G20这个“同舟共济”的机制也应运而生了。在西方发达国家继续在高水平上发展的同时，遍布全球的一大批发展中大国、中等国家群体性崛起，极大地扩大了人类社会发展的空间，包括为发达国家提供了在更高水平上发展的机遇。几个大国同伊朗就艰难复杂的伊核问题达成了协议，开辟了以非战争方式解决核问题的先河。三年前，中美元首安纳伯格庄园会晤，达成了共同致力于构建中美新型大国关系的共识，在大国关系史上打开了一个新的、革命性的篇章。

 

Why do I say so? This world has remained peaceful on the whole without any new world wars 70 years after the end of World War II. The Ukrainian crisis has not dragged the US, Europe and Russia into a large-scale war. During the post-war decades, the world economy has developed rapidly, and the wealth of mankind has increased impressively, although inequality remains a big problem. The global economic and financial crisis in 2008 has not stopped the momentum of scientific and economic development. The G20 was born as a response to the endeavor of countries to seek common progress. As Western developed countries continue to enjoy high-level development, a great number of large and medium-sized developing countries have risen, significantly expanding the space of human development, and offering opportunities for higher-level development of all countries, developed ones included. Major countries have reached agreement with Iran on the difficult and complex nuclear issue, setting a precedence of solving nuclear issue without resorting to war. The Chinese and US presidents met in Sunnylands three years ago and reached consensus on building a new model of major-country relations, opening a new and revolutionary chapter in the history of major-country relations.

 

今天，人们还可以看到、感觉到的是，世界再不是两大政治、经济、军事集团对抗、对峙局面，结盟意识正在一些地方悄然淡化，利益和命运共同体意识正逐步强化；人们不再迷信某一种发展道路和模式，越来越多的国家探寻着符合自己国情的发展之路；各种政治制度、意识形态、价值观念都经历着历史的考验；国际秩序和体系在渐进式改革、补充、完善。

 

Today, what people see and feel is no longer conflict and confrontation between two major political, economic and military blocs in the world. In some places, the sense of alliance is gradually being taken over by the growing awareness of common interests and a community of shared future. People no longer blindly believe in one single path and model of development. Instead, more countries are exploring paths of development that suit their national conditions. All political systems, ideologies and values are being tested by history, and the international order and system are undergoing gradual reform and improvement.

 

朋友们，上述这些不也构成了人类社会向前进步的历史大趋势吗？

 

My friends, aren’t these part of the major historical trend of a progressing human society?

 

应当说，我们大家，各国的政治家、战略家、学者们对上述积极的大趋势和消极面思考研究得还是不够的。只有把形势好和坏的方面的原因都搞得更清楚了，促使局势向好的办法找对了，而且大家本着新思维、新办法同心协力去做，我们这个星球的治理就更加有希望。中国是一个对自己和世界都负责任的国家，我们不仅下决心要治理好自己的国家，也愿同美国等世界各国一起努力，为治理好我们共同生活的星球作出应有的建设性贡献。

 

As a result, our political leaders, strategists and scholars still need to deepen their thinking and studies on these positive and major trend as well as the negative factors. We should have a clear understanding of both the positive and negative factors in the world situation, and find ways to move it towards the better direction. As long as we make concerted efforts with new ideas and new approaches, there will be a better prospect for global governance. As a country that is responsible to both itself and the world, China is not only determined to run its own affairs well, but also ready to work with the US and other countries to make due contribution to the governance of our world.

 

二、怎么看中国

2. On China

 

首先，中国现在最关心什么？

 

First, what is China’s top priority?

 

我们深知，中国仍然是一个发展中国家，整个国家的全面发展水平，特别是发展的质量，在相当长时间里，包括实现第二个百年目标之时，都将落后于美国，更不用说人均富裕程度了。所以，今天，我们最关心的是如何成功跨过中等收入陷阱，实现全面建成小康社会的目标。最近我去了一趟中国最发达的省份之一广东，看到他们那里发展任务也还很重哩，更不用说我的家乡贵州省了，那里还有600多万人没有脱贫啊！所以，我们长期的历史任务仍然是发展好自己。我们自己清醒得很，美国朋友们不要高估中国的发展水平，对中国未来发展做出超出中国实际的预测，弄得自己过分焦躁不安。有人说，人在心境平静的状态下是最富有智慧的。你们还是要放心地吃自己的饭，睡自己的觉，生自己的孩子，同中国好好发展合作。聚焦于发展同中国的合作，应该是你们一个长期的大战略。

 

We are fully aware that China remains a developing country. For a long time to come and even when China’s second centenary goal is met, the level and quality of its development will still lag far behind that of the United States, not to mention the per capita level of prosperity. So our top priority today is to avoid the middle-income trap and build a moderately prosperous society in all respects. Recently I went to Guangdong, one of China’s most developed provinces, where I saw development remained a challenging task. If this is the case, you can easily imagine what it is like for Guizhou province, my hometown, where six million people are still living in poverty. That tells why development remains China’s long-term task, and we are soberly aware of this reality. So my American friends, please do not overestimate or make yourselves uneasy about China’s development. As we see it, people in a state of calmness are most intelligent. Please feel at ease, eat well, sleep well and raise your kids well. As I see it, it should be a long-term strategy for the US to focus on developing cooperation with China.

 

其次，中国人想干什么，在干什么？

 

Now, what do we Chinese want to do and what are we doing?

 

中国是世界中的中国，一个由共产党领导的有近14亿人口的国家，是当今世界第二大经济体。现在这一代中国人是在前人开辟的道路上继续开拓进取，是一代又一代中国领导人带领中国人民不停地跑下去的接力长征。虽然我们取得了巨大成就，走出了一条中国特色社会主义道路，但探索还在继续，也必须继续。新的探索和实践的深刻性、艰巨性和复杂性，要求我们必须有巨大的勇气、非凡的力度、强度和强有力的领导，不敢担当，无所作为，是会出大问题的，那也会殃及你们的。可以说，今后中国的事情办得如何，党和国家治理得好不好，实行什么样的内外政策，事关中国和全人类的未来。我们中国人深感责任重大，下定决心，排除万难，治理好中国，并为世界的治理作出中国人应有贡献。为此，我们坚持解放思想，实事求是，尽可能正确认识、正视和主动适应世界和中国发生的全面、重大、深刻的变化，争取有新的更大作为。

 

China is part of the world. It is a country of nearly 1.4 billion people under the leadership of the Communist Party, and the second largest economy in today’s world. Its people are in a journey along the path blazed by their predecessors, and in a long march led by generations of Chinese leaders. Indeed, China has achieved a lot and has found a socialist path which is uniquely Chinese. But our exploration is still going on and must continue. We know this is a profound, arduous and complex endeavor. We know that to succeed, we must have the enormous courage, the extraordinary strength and a strong leadership. If we in China fail to act or run away from our responsibility, things will go very wrong, not just for us, but also for you. Whether China can handle its affairs well, whether the Party and the country can govern smoothly, and what kind of domestic and foreign policies China will follow bear on the future of China and even the world. We in China are clearly aware of our huge responsibility, and we are determined to overcome all difficulties to run our country well and make due contribution to global governance. To that end, we will free our mind and seek truth from facts, so that with a correct knowledge of all the major changes in China and beyond, we will also be able to adapt to them and get more things done.

 

作为什么呢？我以为，主要是：第一，我们花很大功夫管党、治党，包括以非凡勇气和力度惩治腐败，确保党不脱离群众，确保人民群众对美好生活的追求得以实现，包括几年之内解决余下的7000万人的脱贫问题，确保中国持久稳定、繁荣、不乱、不散。因为中国乱了、散了，亚洲会乱，世界也不得安宁，那时不知会有多少难民漂洋过海涌进你们美国啊！不过，美国朋友可以放心，中国不是前苏联，中国这条和平大船会继续稳中前行，不会翻掉。今天正好是中国共产党成立95周年，95年来，我们经历了多少艰难险阻啊，都挺过来了，何惧今天的艰难？！只是你们不要给我们添麻烦就是了，给我们添麻烦实际上也是给你们自己添麻烦啊！当然，我们并非十全十美，无可挑剔，欢迎一切善意的批评和建议。我们深知，一切伟大的事业都不可能是十全十美的。

 

Then, what are the things to be done? In my mind, they include the following:

 

First, we work all out on Party governance and discipline. Corruption is punished with extraordinary courage and intensity. This is to ensure cohesion between the Party and the people, and to turn the people’s dream of a better life into reality. We will lift the remaining 70 million people out of poverty within a few years, and secure enduring stability, prosperity, order and unity for the country. A chaotic and disunited China will lead to trouble for Asia and the world. Should that happen, just imagine how many refugees would come to your shores. Of course, you can rest assured that China is not the former Soviet Union; it will forge ahead, like a giant ship, in the course of peaceful development; and this ship will not capsize. Today is exactly the 95th anniversary of the Communist Party of China. We have been through so much in the past 95 years, and here we are today, undaunted. We simply ask you not to bring us more problems, because that will also mean problems for yourself. Of course, we are not perfect, nor impeccable, and we welcome all well-intentioned criticism and advice, because we understand that all efforts, no matter how great they are, always have room for improvement.

 

第二，我们以空前的规模和力度全面深化政治、经济、军事、社会、法治、文化、生态等方面的改革，扩大对外开放，确保中国继续保持中高速增长势头，确保中国社会在有更多公平正义的水平上向前发展，造福中国人民，也造福亚洲和世界。我们这一代人经历了新中国成立以来的全过程，深知改革开放是中国发展的根本出路，谁走回头路，谁就会被人民唾弃。你们知道，十八大以来，习近平主席亲自担任全面深化改革领导小组的组长，提出了330多项改革措施，过去两年已完成180多项，今年还要完成100多项，这个力度是空前的，恐怕在世界上是绝无仅有的。不过，外界绝不应期待我们会改得像美国的翻版，虽然我们会研究借鉴包括美国在内的各国适用于我们的东西。

 

Second, we work in unprecedented scale and intensity to deepen reforms in the political, economic, military, social, legal, cultural and ecological fields. We will open up wider to the outside and maintain medium to high growth rate of the economy, and fairness and equity in a progressing society, so as to bring benefits to the people of China, Asia and the world. People of my generation, who have witnessed the entire process of China’s development since the founding of the People’s Republic, understand deeply that reform and opening-up is the only way for China’s development. Whoever chooses otherwise will be condemned by the people. After the 18th National Congress of the CPC, President Xi Jinping has personally served as the chief of the leading group on deepening reform. More than 330 reform measures have been proposed, over 180 have been adopted over the past two years, and more than 100 will be adopted this year. Reform of this magnitude was never seen in China’s history, nor in other parts of the world. However, the outside should not expect China to copy the US model, though we will learn from the useful experience of the US and other countries.

 

第三，我们坚定不移地走和平发展、国强不霸的道路。我们不结盟、不争霸，不干涉别国内政，不颠覆别国政权，不以武力解决争端，不会变成另一个美国或曾经的英国、日本、德国。我们坚持聚焦同世界各国特别是周边国家开展平等互利的合作，坚持主持国际正义与公道，始终是国际秩序和体系的维护者、建设者、完善者。我们积极参与全球性问题和热点问题的解决，承担越来越多与自身国力和能力相适应的国际责任。我们致力于同美国构建不冲突不对抗，相互尊重，合作共赢的新型大国关系，同世界各国一起努力推动人类利益和命运共同体建设。可能有人不完全相信我这些话，以为中国外交发生了重大变化，又怀疑起中国的战略意图来了。实话告诉各位，中国外交本质上保持了大政方针的延续性、稳定性，当然也有创新和发展。任何国家包括美国都是这样，不可能后人和前人任何事情都一模一样，否则这个国家怎么进步？

 

Third, we follow unswervingly the path of peaceful development and will never seek hegemony. We do not seek alliances or hegemony; we do not interfere in others’ internal affairs, overthrow their governments or resolve disputes by force. China will not be another US or what the UK, Japan and Germany used to be. We are committed to equal and mutually beneficial cooperation with all countries, especially our neighbors. We are committed to upholding international justice and contributing to the international order and system. We are actively involved in finding solutions to global and hotspot issues and undertaking more international responsibilities commensurate with our own strength and capability. We are committed to building a new model of major-country relationship with the US featuring non-conflict, non-confrontation, mutual respect and win-win cooperation, and working with all countries to build a community of shared interest and future for the mankind. Perhaps some people don’t entirely trust my words. Some still have doubts about China’s strategic intention, believing in major changes in China’s foreign policy. Let me say this honestly: China’s foreign policy has maintained its consistency and continuity, and of course, there are innovative developments. But for all countries, including the US, progress will be impossible if a country’s younger generation does exactly the same thing as their predecessors.

 

我想说的是，中国的崛起，本质上是多灾多难的中华民族的“自救”和复兴。自鸦片战争以来，我们一直是霸权主义和强权政治的受害者。一直到今天，我们国家仍未实现最终统一，领土主权仍然受到损害。我们绝不去欺负别人，只是希望别人不再欺负我们，尊重我们的主权、安全、发展利益。我们没有主宰亚洲、更没有独霸世界的野心。我们唯一的神圣目标和“野心”就是让我们的人民都能够告别贫困，过上平平安安、体面的、有尊严的日子。相信早就过上富裕日子的美国朋友们能正确认识、理解和对待我们，同情和支持我们把中国事情办好，因为这实际上是你们的一种战略投资，是支持你们自己。

 

I must emphasize that China’s rise, in essence, is the Chinese nation’s self-salvation and revival after enormous suffering. China has been victimized by hegemony and power politics since the Opium War. Even today, China is yet to achieve reunification, and its territorial sovereignty is being undermined. We never bully others, and we just hope that we will not be bullied any more, and our sovereignty, security and development interests be respected. We never want to dominate Asia or the world. Our only lofty goal and “ambition” is to lift our people out of poverty, and bring them a life of peace, decency and dignity. I trust our American friends who have long enjoyed a comfortable life can well understand this, and support us in handling our affairs well, because at the end of the day, this is a strategic investment for you to serve your own good.