李克强总理在中国工会第十六次全国代表大会上的经济形势报告（中英对照）

在中国工会第十六次全国代表大会上的经济形势报告

Report on the Economic Situation at the 16th National Congress of the All-China Federation of Trade Unions (ACFTU)

中华人民共和国国务院总理 李克强

Li Keqiang, Premier of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China

二〇一三年十月二十一日

October 21, 2013

同志们，首先我代表党中央、国务院，向中国工会十六大的成功召开和选出新一届领导机构表示热烈祝贺，向我国亿万职工和广大工会干部致以诚挚问候，向中国工人阶级表示崇高敬意！我国工人阶级是发展的主力军，大家对经济形势、走势都很关心，应大会邀请，我今天主要讲三个问题。

Comrades, first of all, on behalf of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) and the State Council, I would like to offer congratulations on the opening of the 16th National Congress of the All-China Federation of Trade Unions (ACFTU), in which the new leaders were elected. I offer my regards to the millions of employees and the officials working in the trade unions and my highest respect to the workers of China, who are the major force behind China’s development. At the request of the conference, I would like to take this opportunity today to talk about three major issues, as you are all very concerned about China’s economic situation.

一、关于我国经济发展形势

First, China’s economic development trend

如何看待当前经济形势，需要放在国际经济大环境中来透视。新一届政府成立以来，我们面临着错综复杂的国内外形势。突出特点是世界经济复苏乏力，主要发达经济体增长低迷，好的增长1%多一点，差一些的就负增长了；发展中国家和新兴经济体中体量比较大的几个，增速普遍不超过2%，个别好的也不超过5%。2010年，我们的经济增长是两位数，达到10.4%，但到去年四季度，因为国际国内多重复杂因素交织影响，经济增长率只有7.8%，今年继续下行，一季度是7.7%，二季度是7.5%。我为什么上来要跟大家讲GDP呢？同志们可能会问，说我们不能片面强调GDP。这个话说得不错，但我们毕竟是发展中国家，发展还是我国解决一切问题的基础和关键。更重要的是，我们关注GDP，其实关注的是就业。过去，我国GDP每增长1个百分点，就会拉动大约100万人就业。经过这几年经济结构的调整，尤其是随着服务业的加快发展，目前大概GDP增长1个百分点，能够拉动130万、甚至150万人就业。我请人力资源和社会保障部和有关方面反复测算，都认为要保证新增就业1000万人、城镇登记失业率在4%左右，需要7.2%的经济增长。我们之所以要稳增长，说到底就是为了保就业。

The current economic situation should be viewed as part of the global economic environment. Since the newly elected government took office, we have encountered a complicated environment both in China and abroad. The world economy is sluggish, growth in developed economies declining, it is at best only around 1 percent and at worst there is negative growth. Several of the largest developing and emerging economies have grown no more than 2 percent, with only a few hitting nearly 5 percent. In 2010, we obtained two-digit growth, reaching 10.4 percent. However, in the fourth quarter of last year, because of multiple complexities, growth decreased to 7.8 percent, and it continued to fall to 7.7 percent in the first quarter this year, and 7.5 percent in the second quarter. Why am I talking about Gross Domestic Product (GDP) first? You will probably say we should not focus single-mindedly on GDP. This is true. But we are still a developing country and development is the key and the basis for us to solve all our problems. More importantly, when we focus on GDP, we are actually focusing on employment. We once increased employment by 1 million people for every percent of GDP growth. Due to the economic restructuring in the past few years and the accelerated development of tertiary industry, every one percent of GDP growth has created 1.3 million to 1.5 million job opportunities. The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security and relevant departments calculated the statistics more than once, on my request. They said that if we are to ensure that 10 million job vacancies are created and registered unemployment remains at about 4 percent in cities and towns, we need about 7.2 percent GDP growth. We need stable growth in order to create employment.

面对经济下行的压力，怎么办？要稳增长、保就业，我们有两种选择。一种选择是扩大财政赤字，增加货币供应量。通过打赤字、发票子来带动投资，这样做，虽然当年可能能见效，但需要财政、货币政策有相应的运作空间，更重要的是这种短期刺激政策难以持续。因为我们的赤字率已经达到2.1%了。这是什么概念呢？欧盟定了一个标准，就是赤字不能超过GDP的3%，当然后来很多成员国没有遵守，超过了。结果大家都知道，出现了欧债危机，从前几年一直持续到现在，一些国家经济增长无力甚至下降、失业率大增，原有的福利也无法保障。就货币来说，我们的广义货币供应量M2的余额3月末超过了100万亿元，已经是GDP的两倍了。换句话说，就是“池子”里的货币已经很多了，再多发票子就有可能导致通货膨胀。大家都知道，恶性通货膨胀，不仅干扰或者说破坏市场，而且会给人民生活带来巨大的副作用和压力，甚至造成人心惶惶。

How, then, should we deal with the declining economy? We have two options to maintain economic growth and sustainable employment. One is to increase the fiscal deficit and expand the money supply. This might be effective in a particular year, but fiscal and monetary policies need to work together. Short term stimulus policies cannot be sustained. Our deficits have already reached 2.1 percent. What does that mean? Look at the European Union. It passed regulation to prevent deficits from exceeding 3 percent of GDP. However, many countries did not conform to the rule and their deficits went above the warning line. You all know the consequence: the European debt crisis broke out and has lasted for several years. The economies in some countries have been in continuous decline. Unemployment is growing and the welfare is often not fulfilled. In terms of currency, the outstanding broad money supply (M2) in our country by the end of this March has exceeded 100 trillion yuan, twice as much as our GDP. In other words, there is enough money in the pool. Had it increased any more, inflation would probably also have increased. You all know that hyper-inflation would not only destroy the market, but also have huge negative impact, put pressure on people’s lives, and even cause a panic among people.

第二种选择，就是坚持不扩大赤字，既不放松也不收紧银根。这就需要我们保持定力、稳定政策。那么有的同志可能会说，这样做是不是不作为了，只要站住不动就行了？那不行，你要不动，就像骑自行车一样，停在那里晃两圈儿，没准儿就摔下来了。所以还得动，要稳中求进，这是中央确定的工作总基调。还必须稳中有为。怎样稳中有为？那就要创新宏观调控思路和方式，根据形势变化，采取有效的、有针对性的措施。我们重点做了这几个方面工作。

The second option is to carry on without expanding the deficit and neither loosen or tighten monetary policy. This requires us to maintain sustainable policies. Some of you will say, does this mean doing nothing and just standing where we are? We can’t do that. If you don’t move ahead, you will be like a cyclist. If he stops, he will sway several times and may fall off. So we have to move ahead, to move forward while maintaining stability, and that is the fundamental point that has been made by the central government. How can we move ahead while maintaining stability? We need to be innovative in our macroeconomic control, taking effective and focused measures according to the changing situation. To do this, we have focused on the following areas:

第一，深处着力。努力释放改革的巨大红利。同志们还记得，从十八届二中全会到今年全国两会，我们提出简政放权，既要精简机构，更要转变政府职能，这里面大有文章可做。大家都知道，有所谓“两只手”，看不见的是市场的手，看得见的手是政府的手。社会上有人说，政府“看得见的手”变成了“闲不住的手”，干什么事都要去报批。你们可能从电视上看过，有人曾经画了一张叫做审批的“万里长征图”，多的时候要盖一百多个章才能办成一件事，再加上各种检查收费，创业者不堪重负。有一位部长告诉我，说他接到一个投诉信，一个在北京读书的大学生，毕业以后回家，到中部地区的一个小县城，他想自主创业。干什么呢？他觉得这个县城里面要增加点文化氛围，就想办一个书店，从父母和亲属那里借了20多万元，结果跑了三、四个月，盖了几十个公章，总算跑下来。好不容易租了店铺，然后就开始被检查了。有的执法人员进去看，说你这个店玻璃颜色不对，照到街面上光污染，你得改。要办书店的年轻人说我已经没钱了，执法人员说没钱也行，给书吧，就摸了几十本书走了。那他书里是不是有什么“打黄扫非”方面的问题呀？没有。实际上，人家办的是一个社科书店，主要是教材，还真没这方面问题。到最后，这个大学生实在是经不起检查，只好“关门大吉”。我说经不起检查，不是书经不起检查，而是经不起各种人员的反复检查。他一气之下给部长写了封投诉信，部里派人下去查，还果真如此。大家想想看，我们在尽力为各地城镇新增就业、创业创造条件，而各种审批、检查显然把人民群众这种创业的热情给抑制了。所以我们下决心减少行政审批，这半年多来，中央政府下大气力已经取消和下放221项审批事项。简政放权的政策，向社会、向市场释放了一个非常积极的信号，就是鼓励大家就业创业。前两天我要了工商登记机关的数据，今年第三季度，全国新设市场主体同比增长了18%，其中民营企业数量增长了31%，和前些年相比较，呈现一种迸发式的增长，改革的成效是明显的。所以我们把转变政府职能作为改革的突破口。建立中国（上海）自由贸易试验区，其中重要方面也是简政放权，探索负面清单管理模式，政府放开该放的、管住该管的。

Firstly, we have struck deep and have endeavored to release huge dividends from reform. Comrades, you may still remember, from the Second Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee (Feb. 26) to the National People’s Congress (Mar. 5-17) and Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (Mar. 3-12) held this year, we have put forward simplifying governance and decentralizing power. This means both downsizing the government and transforming its functions – and there is huge potential in both areas. As you know, there are the so-called “two hands” – the invisible hand is the market and the visible one is the government. Some people say that the government’s “visible hand” has become a “restless hand,” because all business has to be approved. You may have seen on the television that someone drew a “Long March Map” of administrative processes, saying that it can take more than 100 official seals to approve a business. On top of that, various inspections and fees have overwhelmed start-up businessmen. One minister told me that he once got a complaint letter, saying that a young man, after he graduated from university in Beijing and returned home, wanted to start his own business in a county town in central China. Considering the various proposals, he chose to open a bookstore in a bid to improve the cultural atmosphere of the county. After borrowing more than 20,000 yuan from his parents and relatives, he spent three or four months getting dozens of papers stamped with official seals, which was necessary to get the license. Not long after he rented a place, inspectors came. A batch of law enforcement officers went in, and said the shop’s window glass was the wrong color, as the reflection would cause “light pollution” in the street, and told him to fix it. The young man replied saying he was out of money. The law enforcement officers then offered to take books instead of money, and went away with dozens of books. Did the books contain any adult or illegal content? No. In fact, his was a social science bookstore. Most of his stock was textbooks and he had no problems in this area. Eventually, the graduate could not afford the inspections and chose to close down the store. In my opinion, it was not that his books could not pass the inspections, but that he could not afford to have the inspectors come so frequently. Feeling aggrieved, he wrote a complaint letter, and the ministry sent people to investigate the matter and found that his complaints were true. Think about it. While we are doing our best to create new jobs and facilitate entrepreneurship, numerous approval procedures and inspections are destroying people’s enthusiasm for starting their own business. This is why we are determined to simply administrative approval processes. Over the past six months, the central government has put in a huge effort in abolishing or decentralizing 221 administrative approval processes. Simplifying governance and decentralizing power has sent a positive signal to society and the market, which will encourage people to obtain employment or start their own businesses. The other day I checked the business registration authority’s data. In the third quarter of this year, the number of new market players increased by 18 percent year-on-year, and private business went up by 31 percent. This is explosive growth compared with previous years, showing that the reform has had a remarkable effect. In light of this, we have taken transforming the government’s functions as an entry point for reform. The China (Shanghai) Free Trade Pilot Zone were established with one vital aim for simplifying governance, decentralizing power and exploring a new approach in negative list management. The government should let go of what should be let go and control what should be controlled.

当然，改革不光是要转变政府职能，我们得想更多办法。因为经济发展总是需要财力的，在财政增收困难的情况下，我们就想办法盘活存量。怎么把存量盘活？我们提出来，要让人民过好日子，政府就要过紧日子。中央有“八项规定”，政府明确提出“约法三章”，要从“三公”经费上“开刀”。今年从中央机关开始做，行政经费砍了5%。这样就腾出来一些钱，干什么？其中一项是给小微企业减税，2万元以下小微企业增值税、营业税免了。涉及到多少人呢？涉及到600万户、上千万就业人员。

Of course, reform means more than transforming government functions. We have to come up with more solutions. As economic development always requires the financing to support it, in times of difficulty, we have to liquidize existing assets. How do we do this? We agree that the government should carry out an austerity plan if we want people to live a comfortable life. The CPC’s central authorities have put forward the “eight rules” on frugality, while the government has also drawn up the “three agreements,” to cut public expenditures. Central government agencies took the lead and took a 5 percent cut in their administrative expenses. In this way, we have freed up some money. One part of the savings is being used to fund micro and small businesses by giving them tax cuts. Businesses whose revenue is under 20 thousand yuan are exempt from value-added tax and business tax. This involves 6 million businesses with up to 10 million people.

同时，我们还改革投资体制。这次机构改革，把铁道部撤销了，改成了铁路总公司。铁路职工200多万人，为国家、为人民、为乘客做出的贡献是巨大的、不可替代的。但是，由于原来的铁道部是政府组成部门，政企不分，实际上导致融资困难，只能靠财政给钱，靠国家信用去发债，结果这两年铁路建设步伐在放慢。那怎么办？我们国家到现在铁路运营总里程只有10万公里，美国是25-27万公里，如果跟发达国家相比，我们的人均铁路里程很少。应该说，铁路发展特别是中西部地区铁路发展，还有很大的潜力，所以我们下决心把铁道部变成铁路总公司，既实现了政企分开，也使铁路作为企业可以在更大范围内融资，让社会资本进入。当然要保证铁路的运行安全、国家的安全。修铁路是有回报的，有很多社会资本愿意进来，要搭建平台、创造条件，加速铁路在薄弱地区的发展。

At the same time, we have reformed the investment system. During this round of institutional reform, we dissolved the Ministry of Railways, changing it to China Railway Corporation. More than two million people worked on the railways. Their contributions to the country and people are so big they are not replaceable. But as the former Ministry of Railways was a government agency with no clear distinction between the functions of the government and enterprises, it had financing difficulties. It had to rely on state financing and the country’s sovereign credit to issue bonds – resulting in a slowdown in railway development in recent years. So what should we do? China’s railway mileage is only 100,000 km; by contrast, the United States has 250,000-270,000 km. Our railway mileage per capita is also meager compared with developed countries. It is fairly to say there is still great potential for railway development in China, especially in the central and western regions. This is why we were determined to transform the Ministry of Railways into China Railway Corporation. This has separated the functions of the government and enterprises, and enabled railway authorities to gain finance on a larger scale, effectively letting social capital in. Certainly we have to ensure the safety of railways and that of the country. For the returns on building railways, there is a lot of social capital willing to join in the ventures. We need to build a platform and create the conditions to speed up railway development in less developed regions.

但是，同志们，按照第二种选择来做，也不是说没有压力。在座的大家可能也听说过有所谓的“钱荒”，这就是6月份的时候，银行间的隔夜拆借率曾一下到了13%，那是高得不得了，平常也就是3%多一点。所以当时外界有说法，“中国银行间出现了债务违约、头寸紧张”，这就是所谓“钱荒”。面对这种形势，我们没有心慌，还是坚持这条：既不放松也不收紧银根。但是，坦率地讲，我们心不慌，但也不能不注意。为什么呢？我给大家举个例子。现在网络很发达，有人就把“中国银行间发生资金违约”改了一下，把“间”字划掉了，变成了“中国银行发生资金违约”，并发到网上。大家知道，中国银行是四大国有商业银行之一，而且是我们在全世界布点最多的银行，同时因为时差的原因，我们这边闭市的时候人家那边开市。这一下就议论开了，说“中国金融是不是出问题了”。我们迅速反应，向外界澄清事实。大家要看到，这么点小火星，搞不好就能燃起大火。针对当时的情况，我们一方面要求人民银行和商业银行加强流动性管理，保持适度的货币供应，另一方面并未因此而放松银根，而是合理引导社会预期和企业行为，产生了稳增长效应。如果当时我们放松银根，如果我们多发赤字，那就像古人讲的“抱薪救火”。薪不尽，火不灭，抱着柴火去救火，柴火不用完，火是灭不了的。所以，我们选择坚持稳住财政和货币政策。

But, comrades, this doesn’t mean that there will be no pressure if we go with the second option. You may have heard about the so-called “money squeeze” in June. The inter-bank lending rate surged to 13 percent overnight, a remarkable figure bearing in mind that the usual rate is just over 3 percent. At that time, people outside China said that there were “debt defaults and a shortage of cash in the Chinese inter-bank loan system.” This was the so-called “money squeeze.” Facing this situation, we were not flustered. We neither loosed nor tightened our monetary policy. Yet, frankly, even if we did not get flustered, we had to pay attention to the issue. Why? Let me give you an example. Our communications network is now very developed. Someone just deleted the word “inter” and changed the whole meaning of the sentence “defaults occurred in the Chinese inter-bank market” to “defaults occurred in the Chinese banking market” and spread it online. We all know that the Bank of China is one of the four state-owned commercial banks with the most subsidiaries in the world. As they are in different time zones, banks in China are closed while those on the other side of the world are open. That immediately triggered discussion. “Are there problems in the Chinese financial system?” We responded rapidly by clarifying the facts to the outside world. We need to realize that a single spark can start a major fire. Taking into consideration the overall situation, we asked the People’s Bank of China and commercial banks to strengthen their liquidity management and maintained a moderate money supply. In addition, instead of loosening monetary policy, we rationally guided social expectations and enterprise behavior to prompt steady growth. If we had loosened monetary policy or if we had increased the deficit, we could have been accused of the ancient phrase “carrying firewood to put out a fire,” -- adopting a wrong measure to save a desperate situation, only to make it worse. Therefore, we have chosen to stick to a steady fiscal and monetary policy.