二、2015年经济社会发展的总体要求、主要目标和政策取向 II.
General Requirements and Major Targets and Policies for Economic and Social
Development in 2015
2015年是全面深化改革的关键之年,是全面推进依法治国的开局之年,也是全面完成“十二五”规划的收官之年。2015年经济工作,要全面贯彻党的十八大和十八届三中、四中全会精神,以邓小平理论、“三个代表”重要思想、科学发展观为指导,全面贯彻落实习近平总书记系列重要讲话精神,坚持稳中求进工作总基调,坚持以提高经济发展质量和效益为中心,主动适应经济发展新常态,保持经济运行在合理区间,把转方式调结构放到更加重要位置,狠抓改革攻坚,突出创新驱动,强化风险防控,加强民生保障,促进经济平稳健康发展和社会和谐稳定。
2015 is a crucial year for
comprehensively deepening reform, the first year for comprehensively advancing
the law-based governance of the country, and the final year for completing the
tasks set out in the Twelfth Five-Year Plan. In carrying out our economic work
in 2015, we must comprehensively implement the guidelines of the 18th National
Party Congress and the third and fourth plenary sessions of the 18th CPC
Central Committee; take as our guide Deng
Xiaoping Theory, the important thought of Three Represents, and the Scientific
Outlook on Development; and fully implement the guiding principles from
General Secretary Xi Jinping’s major speeches. We must adhere to the general
principle of making progress while ensuring stability; stay centered on
improving the quality and performance of economic development; proactively
adapt to the new normal in China’s economic growth; keep the economy performing
within an appropriate range; and give high priority to transforming the growth
model and making structural adjustments. We must also tackle hard problems in
reform; highlight the importance of innovation as a force to drive development;
strengthen risk prevention and control; work harder to ensure people’s
wellbeing; and strive for sound and steady economic development as well as
social harmony and stability.
坚持稳中求进工作总基调,“稳”的重点放在稳住经济运行上,确保增长、就业、物价不出现大的波动,确保金融不出现区域性系统性风险。“进”的重点放在调整经济结构和深化改革开放上,确保转变经济发展方式和创新驱动发展取得新成效。按照上述要求,并与“十二五”目标相衔接,提出2015年经济社会发展的主要预期目标:
We will adhere to the general
principle of making progress while ensuring stability. The focus of our efforts
to ensure stability will be placed on keeping economic performance stable,
making sure that there are no major fluctuations in growth, employment, and
prices, and precluding the emergence of regional and systemic financial risks.
The focus of our efforts in making progress will be put on making economic
structural adjustments and deepening reform and opening up to ensure that
achievements are made in transforming the growth model and promoting
innovation-driven development.
To meet these requirements, and
in keeping with the goals set out in the Twelfth
Five-Year Plan, we have set forth the main targets for economic and social
development in 2015 as follows:
——保持经济稳定增长。国内生产总值预期增长7%左右。主要考虑:这一速度适应经济发展新常态,反映现阶段经济增长潜力,契合市场预期,经过努力是可以实现的。同时,根据近几年经济增长、结构变动与就业增加之间的关系,7%左右的经济增长,能够带动1000万人以上的城镇新增就业。实际工作中,依靠促改革、调结构,努力争取更好的结果。
– Ensuring that the economy grows
steadily
GDP is projected to grow by
approximately 7%. In setting this objective, we have mainly taken the following
into account: This growth rate accommodates the new normal in economic
development, reflects China’s current potential for economic growth, is in line
with market expectations, and can be achieved with hard work. At the same time,
the recent few years’ correlation between economic growth and structural
changes on the one hand and increases in employment on the other hand shows
that an economic growth of around 7% would help create more than 10 million
urban jobs. We can do better than this if we promote reform and structural
adjustments through practical work.
——价格总水平基本稳定。居民消费价格涨幅预期3%左右。主要考虑:国际大宗商品价格可能低位徘徊,国内重要商品供给充裕,部分工业领域产能过剩和需求疲弱的矛盾相互交织,价格总水平将延续偏弱走势,同时为价格改革预留了空间。
– Maintaining the basic stability
of overall prices
The CPI is expected to increase
by around 3%. In setting this objective, we have mainly taken the following
into account: The prices of major commodities in the international market may
continue to remain low, there is an ample supply of main commodities at home,
some manufacturing industries are suffering from a combination of overcapacity
and sluggish demand, and there will be continuing weakness in the overall level
of prices. In addition, we have also set this target to leave space for price
reform.
——经济提质增效取得新进展。促进创新的体制机制逐步健全,研发投入稳步增加。战略性新兴产业、服务业增加值占国内生产总值比重继续提高,传统产业加快改造升级。新型城镇化积极推进,区域发展协同性增强。单位国内生产总值能耗和单位国内生产总值二氧化碳排放量均下降3.1%以上,化学需氧量、氨氮、二氧化硫、氮氧化物排放量分别下降2%、2%、3%和5%左右。
– Improving the quality and
performance of the economy
The systems and mechanisms for
promoting innovation will be gradually improved, and R&D spending will be
steadily increased. The contribution of the value-added of strategic emerging
industries and the service sector to GDP will continue to increase, and the transformation
and upgrading of traditional industries will be accelerated. The new type of
urbanization will be carried out vigorously, and development between different
regions will be better coordinated. Both energy consumption and carbon dioxide
emissions per unit of GDP will be cut by at least 3.1%. Chemical oxygen demand
will be reduced by around 2%, ammonia nitrogen emissions by around 2%, sulfur
dioxide emissions by around 3%, and nitrogen oxide emissions by around 5%.
——民生福祉继续增加。城镇新增就业1000万人以上,城镇登记失业率4.5%以内。居民收入增长与经济发展同步,农村贫困人口减少1000万人以上。社会保障制度更加完善,养老、医疗等社会保障覆盖面继续扩大,保障水平逐步提高。教育、卫生、文化等基本公共服务均等化持续推进。人口自然增长率6.5‰以内。
– Continuing to improve the
standard of living
More than 10 million urban jobs
will be created, and the registered urban unemployment rate will be kept within
4.5%. Personal income will increase in step with economic development, and the
rural population living in poverty will be cut by at least 10 million. The
social security system will be improved, the coverage of old-age, medical, and
other social security services will continue to expand, and the level of social
security benefits will increase gradually. We will strive to make continued
progress in making access to education, healthcare, cultural services, and
other basic public services more equitable. The natural population growth rate
will be kept under 6.5 per thousand.
——国际收支状况保持基本平衡。外贸进出口总额增长6%左右,一般贸易、服务贸易比重提高,利用外资规模大体稳定,对外直接投资保持较快增长。
– Keeping the equilibrium in the
balance of payments
Total imports and exports will
increase by around 6%, general trade and trade in services will account for
more of foreign trade, foreign investment utilized will remain stable overall,
and outward foreign direct investment will continue to grow rapidly.
实现上述目标,做好2015年经济工作,必须坚持宏观政策要稳、微观政策要活、社会政策要托底,统筹稳增长、促改革、调结构、惠民生、防风险,继续创新完善宏观调控思路和方式,保持政策连续性和稳定性,加强宏观政策之间的协调配合,形成政策合力。
To achieve these targets and make
our economic work for 2015 a success, we must ensure that the macro policies
are stable, micro policies are flexible, and social policies meet people’s
basic needs. We must make coordinated efforts to ensure steady growth, advance reform,
make structural adjustments, improve the standard of living, and guard against
risks. We must also continue to make innovations in and improve the way we
exercise regulation at the macro level, ensure the continuity and stability of
policies, and make sure that macro policies are further coordinated and work
together to create synergy.
积极的财政政策要加力增效。今年拟安排全国财政赤字1.62万亿元,比去年增加2700亿元,赤字率约2.3%,其中中央财政赤字1.12万亿元,地方财政赤字5000亿元。此外,安排地方政府适当发行专项债券。政策重点:一是继续实行结构性减税、落实普遍性降费。将营改增范围扩大到建筑业、房地产业、金融业和生活服务业等领域。落实好小微企业税收减免政策。二是调整优化财政支出结构。重点向“三农”、民生、环保等领域倾斜,向老少边穷地区和重点生态功能区倾斜,加强对“三农”和小微企业融资担保等支持。坚持厉行节约,从严控制一般性支出。三是切实提高财政资金使用效益。创新财政资金使用方式,加大国库现金管理操作力度,盘活用好国库存量资金。
We will increase the vigor and
effectiveness of our proactive fiscal policies. The government budget deficit
for 2015 is projected to be 1.62 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 270
billion yuan compared to last year, resulting in a deficit to GDP ratio of
around 2.3%. Of this amount, the central government deficit is 1.12 trillion
yuan, and the remaining 500 billion yuan is from local government deficit. In
addition, we will allow local governments to issue an appropriate amount of
special bonds. Our fiscal policies will be focused on the following areas:
First, we will continue to make
structural tax reductions and cut fees across the board. We will extend the trials
of replacing business tax with VAT to the construction, real estate, financial,
and consumer service industries. We will also make sure that the tax reduction
and exemption policies for small and micro enterprises are well implemented.
Second, we will improve the
structure of expenditures. This will be done by giving high priority to
agriculture, rural areas, and farmers; people’s wellbeing; environmental
protection; old revolutionary base areas, ethnic minority areas, border areas,
and poor areas; and key eco-functional zones, and by increasing support for
financing guarantee for agriculture, rural areas, farmers, and small and micro
businesses. We will continue to be economical and strictly control regular
expenditures.
Third, we will utilize government
funds more efficiently. We will make innovations in the way we use government
funds, increase the intensity of treasury cash management, and put treasury
funds on hand to good use.
稳健的货币政策要松紧适度。今年广义货币(M2)预期增长12%左右,实际执行中可根据需要略高一些。适时适度预调微调,加强定向调控、监管协调、预期管理,保持流动性合理充裕。政策重点:一是有效降低实体经济融资成本。综合运用数量型、价格型调控手段,引导金融机构降低贷款利率,促进市场利率处于合理水平。二是支持经济结构调整和转型升级。综合运用多种货币政策工具,引导金融机构加大对小微企业、“三农”、中西部地区以及企业兼并重组的信贷支持。坚持区别对待、分类施策,加大对企业债务重组支持力度。三是有效防控和化解金融风险。加强对房地产、地方政府性债务、影子银行、互保联保等领域和交叉性金融产品的监管,守住不发生区域性系统性金融风险的底线。四是稳步推进利率市场化改革,完善人民币汇率形成机制。扩大金融机构负债产品市场化定价范围,完善中央银行利率调控框架。增强人民币汇率双向浮动弹性,保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。
We will implement a prudent
monetary policy that is neither too loose nor too tight. This year, the money
supply M2 is forecasted to grow by around 12%, but may be adjusted
to a higher level to meet practical needs. We will carry out fine-tuning at an
appropriate time and to an appropriate degree; strengthen targeted regulation,
coordinated supervision, and management of expectations; and maintain
reasonably ample liquidity. Our monetary policy priorities will be as follows:
First, we will effectively lower
financing costs in the real economy. We will apply a combination of
quantitative and price-based regulatory tools to guide financial institutions
toward lowering their interest rates on loans, so that interest rates in the
market move toward an appropriate level.
Second, we will support economic
restructuring, transformation, and upgrading. We will use a combination of
monetary policy tools to guide financial institutions in increasing their
credit support for small and micro businesses, agriculture, rural areas, and
farmers, the central and western regions, and SOE mergers and reorganizations.
We will give stronger support to enterprise debt restructuring by applying
policies tailored to their specific situations and types of debt.
Third, we will effectively
prevent, control, and defuse financial risks. We will tighten oversight over
the real estate market, local government debt, shadow banking, mutual guarantee
and guarantee chains, and cross-market financial products, and ensure that no
systemic or regional financial risks occur.
Fourth, we will steadily
liberalize interest rates and improve the mechanisms for determining RMB
exchange rate. We will allow the pricing of more debt products of financial
institutions to be market-based and improve the central bank’s framework of
adjusting interest rates. We will allow the RMB exchange rate to float more
freely, while keeping it basically stable at an appropriate, balanced level.
政策间协同联动形成合力。坚持需求管理和供给管理并重,把产业政策和竞争政策有机结合起来,充分发挥财政政策、货币政策的主要手段作用,加强消费、投资、产业、价格、区域、土地、环保等政策手段的协调配合。一是落实进一步扩大消费充分发挥消费基础作用的政策措施,促进居民收入合理增长,培育壮大消费热点,优化消费环境。二是健全政府公共投资体系,优化政府投资使用方向和方式,加强预算内投资与开发性和政策性金融、债券、基金、保险等资金的协调配合,吸引和带动社会投资。三是着眼提升产业核心竞争力,更加注重普惠激励、清除障碍、加强监管,强化产业布局和规划引导,加强质量标准和品牌建设,建立健全产能评价和退出机制,完善有利于现代产业体系发展的体制机制。四是加快推进价格改革,大幅缩小政府定价范围,充分发挥价格杠杆作用,通过目标价格改革试点探索完善农产品价格形成机制,推行差别价格和阶梯价格政策,强化价格行为监管和反垄断执法,促进市场主体公平竞争。五是完善区域政策体系,突出分类指导,缩小政策单元,提高政策精准性,完善区域互动和对口支援机制,促进基本公共服务均等化和区域协调发展。六是强化土地利用计划管理,创新政策体制,盘活存量建设用地,继续实行更加严格的耕地保护制度和更加严格的节约集约用地制度。七是规范节能节地节水、环境、技术、安全等市场准入标准,强化节能评估审查和环境影响评价,加大对节能环保领域的资金和政策支持力度,不断改善生态环境质量。
We will ensure our policies are
well coordinated and function together to create synergy. We will manage supply
and demand with equal importance, link together industrial and competition
policies, fully allow fiscal and monetary policies to play their role as major
tools for economic adjustment, and better coordinate policies for consumer
spending, investment, industries, pricing, regions, land, and environmental
protection.
First, we will carry out all the
policies and measures for expanding consumer spending and getting it to fully
play the fundamental role in driving economic growth, stimulate reasonable
increases in personal income, nurture and expand growth areas in consumer
spending, and improve the environment for consumer spending.
Second, we will improve the
system of government public investment, optimize where and how government
investment is used, enhance coordination and cooperation between budgetary
investment on the one hand and developmental and policy-backed finance, bonds,
funds, and insurance on the other, and use government investment to attract and
guide nongovernmental investment.
Third, in order to raise the core
competitiveness of our industries, we will attach greater importance to giving
inclusive incentives, removing obstacles, and strengthening regulation; improve
industrial distribution and strengthen guidance through plans; improve quality,
standards, and brand-building; establish a sound mechanism for assessment and
exit of production capacity; and improve our institutions and mechanisms to be
conducive to the development of a modern industrial system.
Fourth, we will accelerate price
reform, significantly narrow the scope of government-set pricing, and get
prices to fully play a leveraging role. We will explore ways to improve the
pricing mechanism for agricultural products by carrying out the trial reform of
guaranteed base prices, and we will implement policies of differentiated and
tiered pricing. We will strengthen price supervision and intensify law
enforcement efforts to counter monopolistic pricing in order to ensure fair
competition between market players.
Fifth, we will improve our system
of regional policies and arrange policies on a smaller geographical scale so
that they are more precise and more tailored to specific local situations. We
will strengthen interaction between regions, improve the system of providing
assistance to less developed regions by pairing them with more developed
regions, ensure basic public services are more equitably available between
regions, and make development between regions more balanced.
Sixth, we will strengthen
planning and management of land utilization, make innovations in policies and
institutions, make good use of the existing land designated for construction,
and continue implementing still stricter systems for protecting arable land and
ensuring more economical and intensive use of land.
Seventh, we will set unified
standards for market access in terms of energy, land, and water conservation,
environmental impact, technology, and safety; strengthen evaluations of energy
efficiency and environmental impact; offer more financial and policy support to
areas of energy conservation and environmental protection; and keep improving
the quality of the ecosystem and environment. |
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