关于2015年国民经济和社会发展计划执行情况的报告（中英对照）

二、2016年经济社会发展要引领经济新常态、贯彻发展新理念

II. Guiding the New Normal and Applying the New Development Philosophy in 2016

2016年是全面建成小康社会决胜阶段的开局之年，是推进结构性改革的攻坚之年。做好2016年经济工作，对于全面建成小康社会，实现“十三五”奋斗目标，具有十分重要的意义。

This is the first year of the decisive stage in finishing building a moderately prosperous society in all respects and it is also an important year for surmounting the difficulties we face in the push toward structural reform. Effectively carrying out our economic work for this year is hugely important to ensuring that we can finish building a moderately prosperous society in all respects within the 13th Five-Year Plan period (2016-2020).

（一）总体要求

1. General Requirements

全面贯彻党的十八大和十八届三中、四中、五中全会精神，以邓小平理论、“三个代表”重要思想、科学发展观为指导，深入贯彻习近平总书记系列重要讲话精神，加强和改善党对经济工作的领导，统筹国内国际两个大局，按照“五位一体”总体布局和“四个全面”战略布局，牢固树立和贯彻落实创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享的发展理念，适应经济发展新常态，坚持改革开放，坚持稳中求进工作总基调，坚持稳增长、调结构、惠民生、防风险，实行宏观政策要稳、产业政策要准、微观政策要活、改革政策要实、社会政策要托底的总体思路，保持经济运行在合理区间，战略上坚持持久战，战术上打好歼灭战，着力加强结构性改革，在适度扩大总需求的同时，去产能、去库存、去杠杆、降成本、补短板，提高供给体系质量和效率，提高投资有效性，加快培育新的发展动能，改造提升传统比较优势，增强持续增长动力，推动我国社会生产力水平整体改善，努力实现“十三五”时期经济社会发展的良好开局。

We need to fully implement the guiding principles of the 18th National Party Congress and the third, fourth, and fifth plenary sessions of the 18th CPC Central Committee; follow the guidance of Deng Xiaoping Theory, the Theory of Three Represents, and the Scientific Outlook on Development; and fully put into practice the guidelines from General Secretary Xi Jinping’s major political addresses. We need to strengthen and improve the Party’s leadership over economic work; coordinate China’s domestic and international efforts; act in accordance with the overall plan for promoting all-round socialist economic, political, cultural, social, and ecological development and the Four-Pronged Comprehensive Strategy*; and keep firmly in mind and put into practice the philosophy of innovative, coordinated, green, open, and shared development. We need to adapt ourselves to the new normal in China’s economic development; adhere to the reform and opening up policy as well as the general principle of seeking progress while keeping performance stable; and continue to ensure steady economic growth, make structural adjustments, improve the standard of living, and guard against risks. We need to follow the general guidelines of keeping macro policies stable, industrial policies targeted, micro policies flexible, and reform policies practical, while also making sure social policies meet people’s basic needs. The economy needs to continue operating within an appropriate range. We must be strategically prepared for a prolonged struggle, and tactically well prepared so that the challenges we may face can be overcome. We will intensify structural reform-as we increase aggregate demand by an appropriate degree, we will also work to cut overcapacity and excess inventory, deleverage, reduce costs, and strengthen points of weakness in order to improve the quality and efficiency of the supply system. Moreover, we will increase the effectiveness of investment, accelerate the fostering of new driving forces for development, upgrade and improve traditional comparative advantages, and strengthen the drivers for sustainable growth so that China’s overall productivity improves and its economic and social development gets off to a good start for the 13th Five-Year Plan period.

       Note:

* The Four-Pronged Comprehensive Strategy refers to making comprehensive moves to finish building a moderately prosperous society in all respects, deepen reform, advance the law-based governance of China, and strengthen Party self-conduct.

（二）主要预期目标

2. Major Targets

按照上述总体要求，综合考虑需要和可能，提出2016年经济社会发展的主要预期目标：

Acting in line with the general requirements listed above and taking into account both what is necessary and what is possible, we have set forth the main targets for China’s economic and social development in 2016 as follows:

——保持经济平稳健康发展。国内生产总值预期增长6.5%－7%。主要考虑：一是为“十三五”全面建成小康社会打下好的基础。到2020年全面建成小康社会，“十三五”期间需要经济年均增长6.5%以上，如果今年增速低于6.5%，后几年就需要提高增速。为避免压力推后，今年预期目标设定为6.5%－7%，可以争取主动。二是更加有效地促进就业。从经济增长与就业关系看，6.5%－7%的经济增长能够带动1000万人以上的城镇新增就业。三是更加积极地引导预期增强信心。6.5%－7%的增长预期目标，扩大了可接受的经济增速弹性范围，与我国经济增长潜力和市场预期相吻合，能够起到提振信心的积极作用。同时也要看到，我国发展环境更加错综复杂，经济增速仍在探底之中，实现这一目标还需要更大力度的政策和更加艰苦的努力。

– Ensuring steady and sound economic development

GDP is projected to grow by 6.5-7%. In setting this target, we have made the following considerations: First, such a rate is necessary for laying a good foundation for achieving the goal of finishing building a moderately prosperous society in all respects during the 13th Five-Year Plan period. To attain this goal by 2020, the economy needs to grow at an annual average rate of above 6.5% during the 13th Five-Year Plan period. Should the economy grow slower than 6.5% this year, growth rates for the next four years would have to be higher. This year’s target of GDP growth between 6.5% and 7% will help us to gain the initiative and avoid increasing pressure for higher growth rates over the next few years. Second, this rate will help to effectively stimulate employment. In view of the correlation between economic growth and employment, a growth rate of between 6.5% and 7% should be able to create more than 10 million urban jobs. Third, such a rate is conducive to guiding market expectations and boosting confidence. As an elastic range of acceptable economic growth rates, this target is in line with China’s potential growth rate and market expectations, which will allow it to play a positive role in helping to bolster confidence. At the same time, we are also aware that China will face a more complicated development environment this year and the slowdown in our economic growth has not yet been reversed. This means that stronger policies and greater efforts will be required if we are to achieve the targeted growth rate.

——经济提质增效升级取得新进展。投资、消费保持稳定增长，消费对经济增长的贡献率稳步提高。农业基础进一步加强，工业转型升级取得积极成效，战略性新兴产业加快发展，服务业占国内生产总值比重继续提高。科技进步对经济发展支撑作用增强，研究与试验发展经费与国内生产总值之比稳定提高。单位国内生产总值能耗和二氧化碳排放量分别下降3.4%以上和3.9%以上，万元国内生产总值用水量下降5.1%，化学需氧量、氨氮、二氧化硫、氮氧化物排放量分别下降2%、2%、3%、3%，细颗粒物（PM_2.5）未达标地级及以上城市浓度降低3%，地级及以上城市空气质量优良天数比率达到77%，地表水达到或好于Ⅲ类水体比例66.5%，劣V类水体比例控制在9.2%以内。

– Making further progress in achieving a better-quality, more efficient, upgraded economy

Both investment and consumption are projected to continue growing steadily, and the contribution of consumption toward economic growth is also projected to continue rising. The foundation of agriculture will be further strengthened, positive results will be achieved in industrial transformation and upgrading, the growth of strategic emerging industries will accelerate, and the contribution of the value-added of the service sector to GDP will continue to increase. Scientific and technological progress is expected to play a greater role in supporting economic growth and R&D spending as a percentage of GDP will be increased steadily. Energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will be reduced by at least 3.4% and 3.9% respectively, water consumption per 10,000 yuan of GDP will fall by 5.1%; and chemical oxygen demand is projected to fall by 2%, ammonia nitrogen by 2%, sulfur dioxide emissions by 3%, and nitrogen oxide emissions by 3%. For those cities at prefectural level or above that fell short of the national standards for PM_2.5 last year, their PM_2.5 concentrations will be cut by 3% this year; and air quality in cities at prefectural level or above is expected to be good or excellent for 77% of the year. The proportion of surface water with a water quality rating of Grade III or higher will reach 66.5%, while the proportion of that lower than Grade V will be kept within 9.2%.

——价格总水平基本稳定。居民消费价格涨幅预期目标为3%左右。主要考虑：一是翘尾因素略高于上年。据测算，今年翘尾因素的影响比上年的0.5%有所上升。二是存在一些新涨价因素。需求偏弱决定了物价不具备大幅反弹的基础，但考虑到人工等成本上升还会推动服务价格上涨，少数农产品存在周期性波动的可能，加上推进价格改革的影响，预计新涨价因素也会有所提升。三是积极引导市场预期。为改善通缩预期，将价格总水平预期目标适当定高一些。

– Keeping the overall price level basically stable

In setting a targeted increase of around 3% for CPI, we have taken the following into account: First, the continued impact from last year’s CPI increase will be slightly greater than that of the year before. According to our forecast, the contribution of the previous year’s CPI increase on the growth of CPI this year will be slightly higher than last year’s 0.5%. Second, new factors will contribute to an increase in prices. Although weak demand will make a significant price rebound almost impossible, there will still be additional factors driving price increases: a rise in prices of services as a result of an increase in labor costs, the possibility of cyclical price fluctuations of a number of agricultural products, and the impact of further price reforms. Third, this target will help to guide market expectations. A target of higher price increases will be conducive to reducing expectations of deflation.

——民生福祉继续增加。城镇新增就业1000万人以上，城镇登记失业率控制在4.5%以内，既突出保就业的底线，又为化解过剩产能、推进企业兼并重组、应对隐性失业显性化留出一定余地。居民收入增长与经济增长同步，城乡收入差距进一步缩小，农村贫困人口减少1000万人以上。户籍人口城镇化率提高1.3个百分点以上。社会保障制度继续完善，社会保险统筹层次进一步提高，覆盖面继续扩大，保障水平适度提高。教育、卫生、文化等基本公共服务覆盖范围和均等化水平不断提高。

– Continuing to improve living standards

More than 10 million new urban jobs are expected to be created this year, and the registered urban unemployment rate will be kept within 4.5%. This will help to ensure that employment remains stable and will also provide leeway to address overcapacity, carry out enterprise mergers and reorganizations, and respond to the issue of hidden unemployment. Personal income will increase in step with economic growth and the income gap between urban and rural residents will continue to narrow. The number of rural residents living in poverty will be reduced by over 10 million and the percentage of the population registered as urban residents will increase by more than 1.3 percentage points. In order to ensure continuous improvement of the social security system, the overall management of social insurance accounts will be turned over to higher-level authorities, coverage will continue to be expanded, and the level of benefits will be increased appropriately. The coverage and equitable delivery of education, health care, culture, and other basic public services will continue to expand.

——国际收支保持基本平衡。货物贸易出口增速高于世界贸易增长水平，进口规模扩大，服务贸易占外贸总额比重继续提高。利用外资保持增长，对外直接投资较快增长。

– Keeping the equilibrium in the balance of payments

The growth rate in the export of goods from China is projected to be faster than that of world trade, the volume of imports is expected to expand, and the proportion of trade in services in relation to the total volume of foreign trade will continue to increase. Foreign investment utilized by China will keep rising, and outbound direct investment is expected to grow rapidly.