(三)宏观经济政策取向
3. Orientation of Macroeconomic Policies
中央经济工作会议对适应引领经济发展新常态提出了明确要求,特别是对新常态怎么看、新常态下怎么干,强调了“三个必须”和“十个更加注重”。“十三五”规划《建议》提出了创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享新发展理念,将引领“十三五”乃至更长时期的经济社会发展。实现2016年经济社会发展目标,要围绕引领经济新常态、贯彻发展新理念,在适度扩大总需求的同时,着力加强供给侧结构性改革,落实好宏观政策要稳、产业政策要准、微观政策要活、改革政策要实、社会政策要托底的总体思路,做到相互配合、协调发力。
Clear requirements were put forth at the Central Economic Work Conference held in Beijing last December for adapting to and guiding the new normal in economic development. In particular, the conference examined how the new normal should be viewed and handled, and in light of this, three approaches we must follow and ten areas of effort we need to highlight were emphasized. The new philosophy of innovative, coordinated, green, open, and shared development, put forward in the CPC Central Committee’s Recommendations for the 13th Five-Year Plan for Economic and Social Development, will serve as a guide for economic and social development during the 13th Five-Year Plan period and beyond. To achieve the targets for economic and social development in 2016, we must keep firmly in mind the requirements for guiding the new normal in the economy and put into practice the new development philosophy. We need to channel greater energy into supply-side structural reform while increasing aggregate demand by an appropriate degree. We need to implement the general philosophy of keeping macro policies stable, industrial policies targeted, micro policies flexible, and reform policies practical, while also making sure social policies meet people’s basic needs; at the same time, we need to make sure all policies are well coordinated and work together to create synergy.
——宏观政策要稳。稳定和完善宏观经济政策,加强区间调控、定向调控、相机调控,加大对实体经济支持力度,确保经济运行在合理区间。
– Keeping macro policies stable
We will ensure continuity in and make improvements to macroeconomic policies, strengthen range-based, targeted, and well-timed regulation, increase support for the real economy, and make sure the economy operates within an appropriate range.
一方面,积极的财政政策要加大力度。今年拟安排全国财政赤字2.18万亿元,比去年增加5600亿元,赤字率3%,其中,中央财政赤字1.4万亿元,地方财政赤字7800亿元。一是阶段性提高财政赤字率,在适当增加财政支出和中央预算内投资的同时,主要用于弥补减税降费带来的财政减收,保障政府应该承担的支出责任。二是优化财政支出结构,创新财政支出方式,盘活财政资金存量,该保的保住,该减的减下来。三是适当增加地方专项债券发行,主要用于支持土地储备、交通、水利及城镇基础设施等有一定收益的项目建设。继续发行地方政府置换债券。
On the one hand, we will increase the intensity of our proactive fiscal policy. The government deficit for 2016 is projected to be 2.18 trillion yuan nationwide, which represents a year-on-year increase of 560 billion yuan and a deficit-to-GDP ratio of 3%. Of this amount, the central government deficit will be 1.4 trillion yuan, and the remaining 780 billion yuan will come from the local government deficit. First, a scaled-up deficit in the short term will allow us to increase government spending and central budgetary investment by an appropriate amount, and more importantly to make up for the decrease in government revenue caused by tax and fee reductions, thus ensuring the government can fully meet all of its spending responsibilities. Second, we will optimize the structure of budgetary expenditures, make innovations in the way budgetary funds are used, put surplus budgetary funds to better use, and increase or reduce budgetary expenditures as necessary. Third, an appropriate increase will be allowed in the issuance of special bonds by local governments mainly to support land reserve, transportation, water conservancy, urban infrastructure, and other projects that will yield a certain degree of revenue. Local governments will continue to issue bonds to replace outstanding debts.
另一方面,稳健的货币政策要灵活适度。保持流动性合理充裕和社会融资总量适度增长,广义货币(M2)余额增长13%左右,与去年实际增速基本持平。一是疏通传导机制,降低实体经济融资成本,提高金融服务实体经济效率,推进解决融资难融资贵问题。二是拓宽债权、股权等融资渠道,发展项目收益债、高收益债券及可转换债券、可续期债券、永续票据等股债结合产品,提高直接融资比重。三是完善人民币汇率市场化形成机制,坚持有管理的浮动汇率制度,增强汇率双向浮动弹性,保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定,有效管控资本跨境异常流动。
On the other hand, we will appropriately increase the flexibility of our prudent monetary policy. We will maintain reasonably ample liquidity and allow an appropriate increase in the aggregate financing of the economy. The M2 money supply is projected to grow by around 13% in 2016, roughly the same as last year. First, we will ensure a smooth transmission mechanism for monetary policy, lower financing costs for the real economy, ensure the financial sector serves the real economy more efficiently, and help solve the problem of financing being difficult and costly to obtain. Second, with the aim of expanding the issuance of bonds and equities as well as other financing channels, we will develop project revenue bonds, high-yield bonds, convertibles, extendable bonds, perpetual notes, and other hybrid securities. We will also raise the proportion of direct financing. Third, we will improve the market-based RMB exchange rate regime and continue to implement a managed floating exchange rate system, thereby allowing the RMB exchange rate to float more freely while also ensuring basic stability is maintained and the rate remains at an appropriate and balanced level. We will exert effective control over abnormal cross-border flow of capital.
在有效实施财政政策、货币政策的同时,统筹运用产业政策、区域政策、投资政策、消费政策、价格政策,增强政策之间的协调配合,加强逆周期调节,为经济发展和结构性改革营造稳定的宏观环境。
While effectively implementing fiscal and monetary policies, we will coordinate the use of and increase compatibility between policies on industrial development, regional development, investment, consumption, and prices and strengthen counter-cyclical adjustments so as to create a stable macro environment for economic development and structural reform.
——产业政策要准。准确定位结构性改革方向,以供给创新促进需求增长,推动形成新的增长点。一是坚持创新驱动。强化创新激励和创新成果应用,实施科技成果转移转化行动和知识产权战略行动,改革科技成果产权制度,落实股权期权税收政策,完善分红奖励办法。发挥双创、“互联网+”集众智汇众力的乘数效应。二是注重激活存量。加快技术改造升级,修复现有产业和企业动力,提升产业层次,大力发展实体经济,推动中小企业创新转型发展。三是加快绿色发展。推进生态文明先行先试和制度建设,构建绿色产业体系和空间格局,引导形成绿色生产方式和生活方式。
– Keeping industrial policies targeted
The direction of structural reform needs to be accurately determined; we need to stimulate increases in demand by making innovations on the supply side, and encourage the emergence of new areas of growth. First, we will continue to pursue innovation-driven development. In order to increase incentives for innovation and promote its practical application, we will implement action plans to encourage the commoditization and application of scientific and technological advances and carry out the intellectual property rights strategy, reform the system of property rights on scientific and technological advances, carry out preferential tax policies on equity and option rights, and improve the methods for distributing dividends and giving rewards. We will give full play to the role of entrepreneurship and innovation initiatives and the Internet Plus in pooling the wisdom and strength of the general public. Second, we will focus on invigorating existing resources. We will accelerate technological transformation and upgrading, revitalize existing industries and enterprises, take our industries to a new level, redouble efforts to develop the real economy, and encourage small and medium-sized enterprises to develop on the basis of innovation and transformation. Third, we will move faster to promote green development. We will encourage exploration and experimentation in promoting ecological progress and improve related institutions, and work hard to put in place an industrial system and spatial planning that are eco-friendly to spur on the development of green production and promote a green lifestyle.
——微观政策要活。完善市场环境,激发企业活力和消费者潜力。一是以解决放权不同步、不协调、不到位等问题为重点,深化行政审批制度改革,进一步放宽市场准入,提高监管能力和水平,为大众创业万众创新、企业投资经营和群众办事提供更加高效便捷的服务。二是保护各种所有制企业产权和合法利益,实施公平竞争审查制度,消除市场壁垒和地方保护,打破商品和要素自由流动限制,为各种所有制企业创新发展营造宽松的投资和市场经营环境。在项目核准、融资服务、财税政策、土地使用等方面,对民间投资与政府、国企投资一视同仁。三是通过创新供给、改善供给质量和效率,提高有效供给能力,促进供给与需求有效对接,满足不同消费群体多元化、个性化需求。
– Keeping micro policies flexible
We will improve the market environment, invigorate businesses, and unlock the potential of consumers. First, with a focus on addressing the issue of the unsynchronized, uncoordinated, and incomplete delegation of powers to lower level governments, we will deepen reform of the government review and approval system, further relax restrictions on market access, and impose stronger and more effective oversight, thereby ensuring more efficient and convenient services for entrepreneurship and innovation, business investment and operations, and the general public. Second, in order to protect the property rights and legitimate interests of enterprises under all types of ownership, we will implement a review system to ensure fair competition, remove market barriers and local protectionism, and lift restrictions to ensure the free flow of commodities and factors of production, thus creating a relaxed investment and operating environment in which enterprises under all types of ownership can develop themselves through innovation. We will ensure that nongovernmental investments and investments by governments and SOEs are treated equally in terms of project review, financing services, fiscal and tax policies, and the use of land. Third, we will enhance our ability to provide effective supply and ensure it better corresponds to demand by creating new supply and improving the quality and efficiency of supply, which will ensure that the diversified and personalized demand of different consumer groups is fully satisfied.
——改革政策要实。进一步提高改革方案质量,完善落实机制,把握好改革试点,确保改革见到实效,使群众有更多获得感。一是坚持问题导向。抓住主要矛盾,着力推进牵一发动全身的重要改革,依靠改革解决发展中的突出矛盾和问题。加快推进行政审批、投融资、价格、国企、财税金融、社会等领域改革。二是加强统筹协调。更加注重改革的系统性整体性协调性,做好重大和关键性改革的顶层设计,注重相关改革协同配套,形成改革合力。三是狠抓改革落地。解决好改革方案与实际相结合的问题、利益调整中的阻力问题、落实改革的责任担当问题,发挥基层首创精神,鼓励地方进行差别化探索,把改革落准落细落实。
– Keeping reform policies practicable
We will continue to raise the quality of our reform plans, improve reform implementation mechanisms, and make good use of pilot reforms, so that the results of reform are tangible and our people gain an increasingly greater sense of benefit. First, we will adhere to a problem-oriented approach. With a focus on resolving the main problems, we will channel our energy into carrying out important reforms that have a bearing on the overall situation, and we will rely on reforms to resolve the serious issues and problems that are hindering development. We will accelerate reform related to government review and approval; investment and financing; prices; SOEs; fiscal, tax, and financial systems; and social management. Second, we will strengthen coordination. In making reform more systemic, comprehensive, and balanced, we will ensure that major and critical reforms are guided by effective top-level planning, while also coordinating work on related reforms so as to create synergy. Third, we will spare no effort to ensure that reforms are fully implemented. We will work hard to address the issues of how to make sure that reform plans are tailored to reality, how to remove obstructions created during the adjustment of interests, and how to ensure the assumption of responsibilities for implementing reforms. We will give full rein to the initiative of community-level organizations and encourage local governments to explore which methods for implementing reform are best suited to local conditions, thereby ensuring that reform implementation is accurate, thorough, and effective.
——社会政策要托底。守住民生底线,发挥社会保障的稳定器作用。一方面,增加公共服务供给。坚持普惠性、保基本、均等化、可持续方向,保障群众基本生活,保障基本公共服务。另一方面,完善兜底性制度。分类扶持贫困家庭,增加失业救助、最低生活保障方面的财政资金,对无法依靠产业扶持和就业帮助脱贫的贫困家庭实施兜底保障政策。
– Making sure social policies meet people’s basic needs
We will work hard to ensure the
wellbeing of our people, giving full play to the role of the social safety net
as a stabilizer. On the one hand, we will increase the supply of public
services. Public services should be inclusive, equitable, and sustainable, and
should guarantee the basic needs of the people. We will ensure everyone has
access to basic necessities and basic public services. On the other hand, we
will improve systems to ensure there is a cushion in place for those most in
need. We will provide support to economically disadvantaged families based on
their type of situation, increasing government funds for unemployment
assistance and subsistence allowances, while ensuring that those poor families
who are not supported by industry-led poverty-alleviation or employment
assistance programs are covered by social security programs and have their
basic needs met. |
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