But – to those who wish to see us adapt to a deregulated, low-tax enterprise economy – it is an attractive option, and wholly consistent with their philosophy.
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However, it has worrying implications for public services such as the National Health Service – and for the vulnerable who, I’m delighted to say, the Government has pledged to help…and I know how personally the Prime Minister is committed to this.文章源自英文巴士-https://www.en84.com/2122.html
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So there is a choice to be made, a price to be paid; we cannot move to a radical enterprise economy without moving away from a welfare state. Such a direction of policy, once understood by the public, would never command support. It would make all previous rows over social policy seem like a minor distraction.文章源自英文巴士-https://www.en84.com/2122.html
文章源自英文巴士-https://www.en84.com/2122.html
A new trade deal with Europe will be hugely complex. No one should envy the Secretary of State and his negotiators. Some industries – cars, aerospace – hope for special, perhaps industry-to-industry deals for their exports to Europe. The difficulties of this are legion: the chances of success are slim – not least since the German Chancellor is likely to rule out sectoral deals. And even if she does not, WTO rules expect agreements to cover all trade, not just a few handpicked sectors.文章源自英文巴士-https://www.en84.com/2122.html
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Many practicalities arise: even a partial customs deal with Europe would not eliminate the need for country-of-origin certificates, or border checks, or certification that regulations are met, or other frustrations – none of which exist at present. And any deal we reach must be agreed by the other 27 nations of the European Union, each with their own national interests. No one can be certain how long this will take: a conclusion within two years is very, very, very optimistic. Business needs to factor this in to their plans.文章源自英文巴士-https://www.en84.com/2122.html
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And domestic political hurdles arise as well: if cars and aerospace were to get favourable deals, why not textiles and widgets? How would the Government soothe the ire of those not receiving preferential treatment? Nor will free trade deals with third countries be straightforward. Even the most attractive options come with political hazards.文章源自英文巴士-https://www.en84.com/2122.html
In Washington, the Prime Minister discussed a deal with President Trump. Both Leaders were keen, which is excellent. But the omens are mixed.
Early actions confirm that President Trump has put protectionism at the heart of his trade policy. “America First” is more than a slogan. Tariffs between the US and the UK are already minimal: there is little scope for lowering them further. The UK runs a healthy trade surplus with America: President Trump may wish to narrow – or eliminate – that gap. That being so, British hopes shouldn’t be set too high. Nor will it be easy – or quick – to reach agreement on contentious issues such as medicine, or cars, or beef raised with growth hormones. In comes American beef; out go European subsidies. That isn’t going to be an easy sell to the beef industry.
And that of course, China and India are both attractive candidates for enhanced trade. But, in negotiation, India, for sure, India will seek immigration concessions for students and non-students alike which, prima facie, is in direct conflict with Government plans.
China, as I know from experience, is a tough negotiator, and will strike a hard bargain. As she is the largest trading partner to 120 countries, and the largest export market for 70 of them, a trade agreement with the United Kingdom may not, at this moment, be one of her main priorities.
The Government must also replicate the 53 free trade deals struck on our behalf by the European Union but only for members of the European Union. They must be renegotiated, all 53 of them. So far, after 8 months, only 12 are in play. There is a very, very long way to go, and the question arises: are 65 million Britons likely to get the same favourable outcome as 500 million Europeans?
I set out these difficulties, not because I don’t believe deals can be done – some most certainly can and will be done – but to be realistic about the timescale and the complexity of the huge task…the huge undertaking that lies ahead. It is crucial to business and to the public that our expectations are consistent with what can be delivered. It matters to the Government, too: Ministers must not over-promise.
In two years’ time, the United Kingdom will be the first nation to leave the European Union. This will be a real irony, as the first proposal for a European Union came not – as is generally supposed – from the Frenchman, Jean Monnet, but from an Englishman.
Three and a quarter centuries ago, in 1693, William Penn advocated a European “Dyet or Parliament” as a policy to end perpetual military conflict on the Continent. It took 280 years and two world wars to convince his fellow Britons. 43 years later, the British people reversed that decision. Let us hope – for the futures of our children and grandchildren, that they were right to do so.
Thank you very much.
