吉密欧：我们从一些国家听到的批评或者说提出的问题就是债务。中方提供贷款，使一些国家债务水平过高，无法维持，也无法偿还。最常提及的就是斯里兰卡。有人说，斯里兰卡政府债务负担过于沉重，无力偿还，不得不把有关港口移交给中国。中国有什么计划确保这些国家的政府能够偿还债务？
文章源自英文巴士-https://www.en84.com/5878.html
Jamil Anderlini: One criticism we’ve heard from some countries. One thing that people have raised in some areas is the idea of debt. The idea that many of the loans or the investments involved loans from China to these countries may make these countries take on too much debt and they won’t be able to fund them, or they won’t be able to repay these loans. And one example we hear a lot is the example of Sri Lanka, which seems to borrow too much and is not able to repay and then had to hand over the Hambantota port. What’s China’s plan to make sure that these governments can pay back the loans that are involved?文章源自英文巴士-https://www.en84.com/5878.html
文章源自英文巴士-https://www.en84.com/5878.html
乐玉成：债务是一个中性词。搞经济的，多多少少都要涉及债务。但是我们讨论的债务问题同“一带一路”没有必然联系。首先，债务的成因很复杂，有多种因素。有的是经济基本面出了问题，有的是历史遗留下来多年积累的旧账，还有国际和经济环境出现变化，比如保护主义抬头、一些发达国家加息、主要储备货币升值，还有大宗商品价格跳水等。我到过赤道几内亚，这个非洲国家曾经非常贫穷，后来发现了石油，在1997年到2007年这十年油价高企时，连续十年GDP增幅超过26%，人均GDP突破2万美元。但这几年油价下跌，GDP连续负增长，去年为负5.3%，人均GDP降到8000美元。这说明，外界经济环境变化对这些国家影响很大。刚果（布）也是类似情况，过去欠了不少西方石油中间商债务。文章源自英文巴士-https://www.en84.com/5878.html
文章源自英文巴士-https://www.en84.com/5878.html
Le Yucheng: Debt is a neutral term commonly used in economics. The debt issue we are talking about here is not necessarily linked to the BRI. To start with, the cause for debt is complicated and involves many factors, including economic fundamentals, historical debt baggage, or changing international and economic environment like rising protectionism, interest rates hike in some advanced economies, appreciation of major reserve currencies as well as plummeting commodity prices.文章源自英文巴士-https://www.en84.com/5878.html
文章源自英文巴士-https://www.en84.com/5878.html
I’ve been to Equatorial Guinea, a small country in Africa. It used to be a very poor country, and then they discovered oil. Between 1997 and 2007 when the oil price was at its height, the country’s GDP grew by over 26% for 10 years in succession with a per capita GDP exceeding US$20,000. However, in recent years, the declining oil price has brought its GDP growth rate into the negative territory, -5.3% in 2017. And the per capita GDP fell to US$8,000. That shows how changes in external economic environment affect these countries. Republic of the Congo faces a similar situation. It has taken on a lot of debt with western oil brokers.文章源自英文巴士-https://www.en84.com/5878.html
文章源自英文巴士-https://www.en84.com/5878.html
第二，中国是国际投融资市场的后来者，“一带一路”倡议才搞了五年，中国企业“走出去”开拓全球市场也没多少年。应该说，债务问题不应由中国来承担责任。你讲到斯里兰卡，事实上，我也高度关注该国情况。根据斯里兰卡央行2017年度报告，其外债总额是500多亿美元。中国的债务占10%左右，而且中国60%以上贷款是优贷，利率远低于国际市场。斯里兰卡也发行了不少主权债券，吸引美国和西方投资者，市场借贷主要来自主权债券，占斯里兰卡外债的39%。亚洲开发银行债务占14%，日本12%，世行11%，中国只占10%。文章源自英文巴士-https://www.en84.com/5878.html
Secondly, China is a latecomer in international investment and financing markets. It’s just been five years since the BRI was put forward. And it hasn’t been that many years since Chinese companies started to explore the global market. So one should not hold China accountable for all the debts.
You mentioned Sri Lanka. I have followed the situation in Sri Lanka closely. According to the 2017 annual report issued by its central bank, Sri Lanka’s total foreign debt is over US$50 billion. China only accounts for about 10%. Plus, over 60% of Chinese loans are concessional loans, with an interest rate much lower than the international level.
Sri Lanka has issued a lot of sovereign bonds to attract American and Western investors. So government financing constitutes a major source of market lending, which takes up 39% of the total external debt. The country has also borrowed from other sources, the ADB 14%, Japan 12%, and the World Bank 11%. China only accounts for about 10%.
至于汉班托塔港，这个项目是应斯里兰卡请求建设和运营的。斯里兰卡多年的愿望是利用地理优势打造一个印度洋上的物流中心、仓储中心。过去因为打仗、内乱不好办，现在稳定了，特别希望建设一个国际化港口，所以找到我们。特许经营权也是斯方提出的，中国企业因为对情况不是很熟悉，起初很犹豫。后来经过反复研究、磋商，克服大量困难同斯方达成共识。中资企业同斯方成立两家合资企业并持有股份。另外我还要强调的是，汉港的主权和所有权始终是斯里兰卡的，项目建好了，需要时还可以回购中国企业股份，直至全部收回。
About the Hambantota port, the project was built and run at the request of the Sri Lankan side. For years, Sri Lanka had hoped to make good use of its geographical location and build the country into a logistic and warehouse hub in the Indian ocean. In the past, because of civil war and conflict, they were unable to do so. Now the situation is stable, to build an international port is back on their agenda. And they looked for help from China.
The idea of the operation right also came from the Sri Lankan side. The Chinese company was hesitant at first because they were not familiar with such situation. After careful studies and rounds of consultation and negotiation, the Chinese company overcame difficulties and reached agreement with the Sri Lankan side to set up two joint ventures, and had acquired corresponding stakes.
I want to stress that the sovereignty over and ownership of the Hambantota port belong to Sri Lanka throughout the process. When it is done, if it so needs, Sri Lanka can repurchase part of or all stakes from the Chinese company until it takes it all back.
我还想讲，中国的投资重点是基建项目，这些项目见效可能比较慢，但是毕竟是有效资产，而且还会升值。长远看来，对这些国家是有利的。就好比年轻人贷款买房子，虽然背负一些债务，但毕竟有了自己的房子，是自己的资产。中国有句话叫“要想富，先修路”。非洲国家长期以来也得到西方不少援助，但为什么发展还是很慢？我觉得一个很重要的原因就是基础设施建设一直落后。我到过非洲，很多国家之间没有直航，没有直达火车，甚至公路都没有。从一个非洲国家到另一个非洲国家，要经过巴黎或苏黎世转机。在基础设施如此短缺的情况下，经济怎么可能得到很好的发展？所以中国投资非洲的基础设施，实际上是找到了影响非洲发展的问题症结所在。
In addition, Chinese investment is mainly in the infrastructure sector. It may take a long time to yield returns, but they are valid assets whose value will grow in time. So in the long run, it is beneficial to host countries. Just like when young people buy a house with mortgages, they may take on some debt, but they have a place to live and they have their own assets.
We Chinese often say that if you want to get rich, build roads first. Africa has for many years received certain assistance from Western countries. But why couldn’t it achieve faster development? One important reason is the underdevelopment of infrastructure. I have been to Africa and I know that many African countries, although in the same continent, are not connected by direct flights, railways or even roads. You have to fly to Paris or Zurich in order to get to another African country. How can the economy grow with such underdeveloped infrastructure. By investing in infrastructure, China is helping address the bottleneck that’s been holding back Africa’s development.
非洲急需要公路、铁路、发电厂、飞机场、码头这样的基础设施，中国在这方面投入比较多。这些设施将慢慢对当地经济产生拉动作用。一条路不是简单的交通线，而是一个经济带，一条经济走廊，可以带动整个区域经济发展。《福布斯》杂志测算，中国在非洲的基建项目每年为非洲创造了500亿美元收益。我们建造蒙内铁路，累计为肯尼亚创造了近5万个工作岗位，带动GDP增长约1.5%。中巴经济走廊2016年为巴基斯坦GDP增长贡献了2.5%，巴当年经济增长率是4.7%。中方承建的斯里兰卡普特拉姆燃煤电站供应斯全国超过40%的电力，解决了斯2000多万人的用电问题。非洲1/3新增的电力受益于中国投资项目。“一带一路”倡议提出以来的5年期间，非洲新增了四条中国建设的铁路：蒙内铁路、亚吉铁路、阿卡铁路（在尼日利亚）、安哥拉本格拉铁路。我们在这么短时间内提供了这么多的基础设施建设，而且建成了，这是“一带一路”的重要贡献。
So Africa has a great need for infrastructure, including roads, railways, power plants, airports and sea ports. Chinese investment in these areas will help boost the local economy in time. A road is not just a means of transportation, but an economic belt or corridor that will catalyze the development of the whole region.
According to Forbes, Chinese investment in Africa’s infrastructure has generated US$50 billion in revenue for host countries every year. The Mombasa-Nairobi railway China helped build has created nearly 50,000 jobs for Kenya and driven its GDP up by 1.5%. CPEC, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, contributed 2.5 percentage points to Pakistan’s GDP in 2016, which grew by 4.7%. In Sri Lanka, the Puttalam coal fired plant built by China is now providing over 40% of the country’s electricity, benefiting 20 million plus people. About one third of additional electricity added to grid in Africa is attributable to China-invested projects.
In the past five years since the BRI was proposed, four railways undertaken by China in Africa were completed, i.e. the Mombasa-Nairobi railway, the Addis Ababa-Djibouti railway, the Abuja-Kaduna railway in Nigeria and the Benguela railway in Angola. The fact that China has delivered all these much needed infrastructure in a short period of time shows the BRI is making a big difference.
中国企业投资时也要讲经济效益，做了充分的调研论证和严格的测算，还参考了信用评级。我们不是过度投资，而是量力而行。有些国家提出一些不切实际的项目，我们还劝他们不要把摊子铺得太大。当然，现在有些国家债务比较重，我们也能理解，但是中国不逼债，有困难我们通过双边协商灵活处置。这次中非合作论坛北京峰会期间，习近平主席宣布免除非洲与中国建交的最不发达国家等2018年底到期的无息贷款类债务。所以，有些媒体指责中国制造了债务陷阱，我觉得不能接受，我们做出的是贡献。到底我们提供的是“馅饼”，还是“陷阱”，还是让事实和实践来回答，“让子弹再飞一会儿”，不要急于下结论。
When making investment decisions, Chinese companies make sure that they are economically viable, with rigorous feasibility study and evaluation and by factoring in credit rating. We do things according to our ability. Likewise, we advise countries to act within their means and not to overstretch themselves when they consider projects that are not in line with local conditions.
Some media reports say China has created “traps” for certain countries. We find it unacceptable because we have made contributions to those countries. What does China bring to those countries? Is it a pie or a pitfall? Let facts and results speak for themselves. Better be patient for a while and do not jump to conclusions.
媒体爱用“陷阱”这个词，比如修昔底德陷阱、金德伯格陷阱、中等收入陷阱等，我们认为这太悲观了。我们中国人讲机遇大于挑战，办法总比问题多，即使有危机也是危中有机，看问题更乐观一些。看待债务问题也是如此。一些国家是有负债，但跨过这个困难，可能经济就有大的提升。中国也有过债务困难，但我们想办法克服，所以实现了快速发展。想舒舒服服地、不欠债还能过上好日子，不努力、不刻苦、不奋斗，幸福生活不会从天上掉下来。这是我们的体会，跟你分享。
The media likes the word “trap”, the “Thucydides trap”, the “Kindleberger trap” and the “middle income trap”. In our view, it represents a rather pessimistic perspective. We Chinese always believe that there are more opportunities than challenges, and more solutions than problems. Even in crisis, there lies opportunities. Being optimistic is important, which is also true when it comes to the debt problem. For those countries that are grappling with debts, once they pull it through, their economy may face a bright outlook. China was also financially stripped at some point in the past. But we dealt with it and made progress in our development. It is not realistic to expect a happy life to fall into your lap without working hard for it and taking risks, including taking on some debt in this case.
吉密欧：您曾经担任中国驻印度大使，印度显然对中巴经济走廊有较大担忧，因为他们对该走廊经过的一些地方有领土主张。我想问，“一带一路”倡议没有纳入印度是不是一个问题，接下来如何解决这一问题？
Jamil Anderlini: You were the Ambassador to India. So I do want to ask about India. They are obviously a bit worried about CPEC because they claim some of the territory that it goes through. So I’m wondering, is it a problem that India is not so far involved in this. And what might be the next step to try and deal with that?
乐玉成：我担任过中国驻印度大使，我感觉中印两国虽在一些问题上存在分歧，但都面临着许多共同的发展任务。今年以来，习近平主席同莫迪总理三次会晤达成的一个共识，就是中印要做支持对方实现各自美好梦想的合作伙伴。中印关系正在进入新阶段，呈现新气象。
Le Yucheng: Indeed, I served as the Chinese Ambassador to India. I know that although China and India may not see eye to eye on every issue, the two countries face similar development agenda. This year, President Xi and Prime Minister Modi met three times. One important consensus they reached is that China and India need to be cooperation partners that support each other in realizing their respective dreams. China-India relationship is now in a new stage and showing a new momentum.
克什米尔问题是印巴之间历史遗留问题。我们主张印巴双方通过对话协商妥善解决，不偏袒任何一方。中国同巴控克区接壤，那是我们通向巴基斯坦的必经之地。我们在那里有一些民生和经济项目，但是不针对第三方，中国无意介入印巴之间的争议。印度对“一带一路”倡议有保留，但是中印务实合作有很多，包括特变电工在古吉拉特邦建造了一个产业园，在当地很受欢迎。我们帮助印度火车提速，建新的火车站，中印共同建设孟中印缅经济走廊。印度还是亚投行创始成员国，现在亚投行20%的项目投在印度，所以印度是“一带一路”倡议实实在在的受益者。
Kashmir is an issue between India and Pakistan that is left from history. We believe the two parties should resolve the issue properly through dialogue and consultation. We don’t side with either party.
China borders Pakistan-controlled Kashmir, which is the only passageway linking the two countries. China is involved in some livelihood and economic development projects there. Those projects are not directed at any third party, and China has no intention of intervening into their dispute.
India may have its own views on the BRI. But China and India are cooperating closely on practical projects. TBEA, a Chinese company, has set up an industrial park in Gujarat, which is welcomed by the local community. China is also helping India increase the speed of its existing railways and build new railway stations. The two countries are also working on Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor. In addition, India is a founding member of the AIIB. About 20% of the projects funded by AIIB are in India. So India has gained tangible benefits from the BRI.
吉密欧：我刚刚从巴基斯坦回来，在那里待了5天。巴基斯坦安全形势比过去几年有了改善，但仍然不安全。中国如何确保在巴基斯坦和阿富汗这类“一带一路”沿线国家项目的安全，是否有可能在此类国家部署军队或安全人员，以保障“一带一路”项目和中国公民的安全？
Jamil Anderlini: Thinking about Pakistan. It’s interesting because I was there for about five days. The security situation seems much better than it was just a few years ago. I wonder it’s still not very safe. So how does China make sure that these projects are safe? For example, in Pakistan? Maybe Afghanistan? Could you ever see a situation where we put Chinese troops or Chinese security to protect the BRI and Chinese workers and citizens?
乐玉成：“一带一路” 涉及的国家很多，的确包含一些不稳定地区，但确保“一带一路”安全主要依靠当地政府。我们同有关国家签署的共建“一带一路”合作协议都包括驻在国负责项目安全的条款。巴基斯坦成立了专门的安保部队维护中巴经济走廊安全。
Le Yucheng: The BRI involves a lot of countries. In some places, the situation is not secure yet. Primarily, we look to the government of host countries to provide for the security of BRI projects. The BRI cooperation agreements we have signed with various countries include provisions that the host countries will take up the security responsibility. For instance, Pakistan has set up a special force for the security of CPEC.
我们认为不发展才是最大的安全隐患。“一带一路”搞好了，自然会增进地区安全。中国没有利用“一带一路”安保问题寻求建立海外军事基地的意图，我们奉行和平的外交政策和防御性国防政策。但是中国也是个大国，对世界和平安全负有特殊责任，参与了联合国框架下的国际反恐、维和、打击海盗等行动。一些军人走出国门长期在海外保障和平，自然需要物质等方面的保障，类似吉布提的保障基地就很有必要。但是我想指出，我们在海外的军事存在比一些大国要少得多、小得多，而且我们不对别国进行军事干涉，更不侵犯别国领土主权。为了保护海外公民的利益和安全，外交部有领事保护机制，但这跟建立海外军事基地没有关系，我们通过各种方式保护我们的公民。
In our view, the lack of development is the biggest security risk. Progress made in the BRI will contribute to greater regional security. We have no intention of using the security of the BRI to set up overseas military bases, as we pursue an independent foreign policy of peace and a defense policy that is defensive in nature.
That said, as a major country, China shoulders special responsibility for world peace and security. And China has taken part in the UN-led peacekeeping operations and efforts against terrorism and piracy. As Chinese servicemen and women help maintain peace in other parts of the world, far away from home for months even years, they need logistic support including supplies. The Djibouti base is set up for that purpose.
It must be pointed out that China’s military presence overseas is much smaller and much less than other major countries. We never seek military intervention in other countries, least of all do we infringe upon other countries’ territorial sovereignty.
To protect the interests and safety of Chinese nationals overseas, the Foreign Ministry has put in place a consular protection mechanism, which however, has nothing to do with overseas military bases. It is one of the many means for the government to protect Chinese nationals.
