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女士们,先生们,朋友们:
Honorable Mr. Han Qide,
Honorable Ms. Irina Bokova,
Honorable Party Secretary Qiu Shuiping and President Hao Ping of Peking University,
Distinguished Guests,
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Friends,
深秋的北京五彩斑斓,很高兴在这样一个收获的季节同各位旧友新知相聚“北京论坛”,畅谈人类文明的发展与进步。“北京论坛”自成立以来,以“文明的和谐与共同繁荣”为总主题,致力于世界和平与发展,为各国人士交流互鉴、增进理解提供了重要平台。今年论坛以“变化世界与人的未来”为主题,契合当前世界发展形势,紧扣各国普遍关切,具有现实意义。
In this autumn season when Beijing is clad in a riot of colors, it gives me great pleasure to meet with friends, old and new, at the Beijing Forum and discuss the progress of human civilization.
Since its inauguration, the Beijing Forum has been convened under the general theme of “The Harmony of Civilizations and Prosperity for All”. Discussions have focused on advancing peace and development, making the Forum a valuable platform for deepening mutual learning and understanding. The theme of this year’s forum, “The Changing World and the Future of Humankind”, is highly relevant. It dovetails with current global developments and touches on matters of interest to all.
当今世界正经历百年未有之大变局,全球治理体系和国际秩序加速变革。各种思潮激荡碰撞,各方对世界变化的认识热烈争鸣,人类向何处去?各个国家、不同文明之间应该如何相处,选择开放还是封闭、合作还是对抗、共赢还是零和?是需要我们认真回答的时代课题。我们要透过变乱交织的表象,顺应历史潮流和时代要求,牢牢把握当今世界发展的本质和规律。
The world today is going through changes of a kind unseen in a century. Looking around, we see faster evolution of the global governance system and international order. With different ideas vis-à-vis each other, there is a heated debate on how to perceive all those changes.
People will naturally ask: Where is our world headed? How are different countries and civilizations to interact with each other? Do we choose openness or seclusion, cooperation or confrontation, a win-win or zero-sum outcome?
To answer these important questions, we must see through the mist of change, and grasp the trend of history. Most importantly, we must understand fully the nature and direction of current global developments. Let me share with you a few observations:
当今世界,经济全球化仍是时代潮流。经济全球化极大促进了经济发展和文明,使生产力与民众生活得到前所未有的提升。1990年到2010年,世界经济年均增速达到5.51%,本世纪以来11亿人口脱贫。一段时间以来,明显存在着“逆全球化”现象,原因复杂。但正如习近平主席指出的,让世界经济的大海退回到一个一个孤立的小湖泊、小河流是不可能的。经济全球化是不可逆转的时代潮流。新一轮科技革命和产业变革基于经济全球化,解决发展失衡、数字鸿沟、公平赤字等问题更离不开经济全球化。只有在理念上更加注重开放包容,方向上更加注重普惠平衡,效应上更加注重公正共赢,才是顺应大势的正确抉择。
In today’s world, economic globalization is still the predominant trend. Globalization is a huge boost to economic development and human progress. It has lifted productivity and living standards to an unprecedented degree. Between 1990 and 2010, global economic growth averaged 5.51 percent. Since the start of this century, 1.1 billion people worldwide have been helped out of poverty. For all this to happen, economic globalization has had a sure part to play.
On the other hand, for some time there has been an obvious backlash against globalization. The reasons may be complicated. Yet, the world economy has grown into something like the ocean. As President Xi Jinping has rightly pointed out, “To channel the waters in the ocean back into isolated lakes and creeks is simply not possible.”
The trend of economic globalization is irresistible. It has given rise to the latest round of scientific, technological and industrial revolution. Of the many global challenges we face, development disparity, digital divide, equity deficit, among others, none could be addressed without the leveling effect of economic globalization. In this day and age, the right answer can only be continued globalization. The focus should be on a more open and inclusive mentality, more balanced and universal benefits, and more equitable and win-win outcomes.
当今世界,世界多极化显然是大势所趋。回望国际关系,世界多极化的发展始终曲折向前。冷战结束后世界从单极独霸日益走向多极化,特别是本世纪以来,新兴市场国家和广大发展中国家群体性崛起,极大地推动了世界多极化的进程,当前占世界经济总量比重已达40%,对全球经济增长的贡献率已经达到80%。国际力量对比的重大变化使世界政治格局更为均衡,有利于维护世界和平、促进共同发展。
In today’s world, multi-polarity is clearly the order of the day. The transition to a multi-polar world has been fraught with ups and downs. The end of the Cold War actually started a process toward a more multi-polar world. The collective rise of emerging markets and developing countries at the turn of the century, among other things, marks a major shift in global politics and greater equilibrium in the balance of power. Accounting for two-fifths of the world economy and four-fifths of global growth, they make a strong force for world peace and development.
当今世界,国际关系民主化更是人心所向。国际关系民主化本身就是世界多极化的应有之义。世界各国不分大小、强弱、贫富都是国际社会平等成员,全球事务应由各国共同治理,主权平等、对话协商、遵守法治应是国际关系公认准则,这些都是国际社会绝大多数成员长久以来的强烈愿望。第二次世界大战后,确立以联合国宪章宗旨和原则为基础的国际关系基本准则,建立了以联合国为核心的国际体系,为世界带来了70多年的和平稳定和发展繁荣。维护和发展以联合国为核心的多边合作,推进国际体系建设和改革,是世界绝大多数国家的共同选择。霸权主义、强权政治阻挡不了国际关系民主化的历史步伐,保护主义、单边主义改变不了各国扩大开放合作与维护多边主义的愿望和决心。
In today’s world, more democratic international relations is all the more what people aspire for. This is part and parcel of the yearning for a multi-polar world. Countries, big or small, strong or weak, rich or poor, are all equal members of the world community. Global affairs should be decided by all countries working together, and international relations should be conducted on the basis of recognized norms like sovereign equality, dialogue and consultation, and the rule of law. All these are strongly desired by the overwhelming majority of countries worldwide.
The basic norms of international relations, built on the purposes and principles of the UN Charter, together with the international system centering around the United Nations, have brought more than 70 years of peace, stability, development and prosperity since World War II. Today, to preserve and promote multilateral cooperation under the auspices of the UN and to reform and improve the international system is the common choice of the majority of countries in the world. Hegemonism and power politics cannot stop the advance toward more democratic international relations. Protectionism and unilateralism cannot shake countries’ commitment to openness, cooperation, and multilateralism.
当今世界,文明多样化正是历史选择。2014年,习近平主席曾在联合国教科文组织以人类文明交流互鉴为主题发表重要演讲。正如习近平主席指出,文明因交流而多彩,文明因互鉴而丰富。文明是多彩的、平等的和包容的,一部人类发展史也是一部多元文明并生共进的历史。每一种文明文化都有其独特的价值,只有五颜六色之别,并无高低优劣之分。一切文明成果都值得尊重,各种文明成果都要珍惜。历史发展表明,文明交流互鉴,是推动人类发展进步的强大动力;文明和谐共生,是实现世界和平繁荣的重要保障。
In today’s world, diversity of civilizations is exactly the choice of history. In 2014, President Xi Jinping spoke on the importance of exchange and mutual learning between civilizations at UNESCO. As President Xi noted in his speech, civilizations become richer through exchange and mutual learning. Diversity, equality and inclusiveness are the hallmark of human civilization. Each civilization and culture is valuable in its own right. One may be different from another, but no one is superior over the other. The achievements of all civilizations need to be respected and treasured. History tells us that human progress is enabled by mutual learning among civilizations, and world peace and prosperity is underpinned by the harmonious coexistence of all civilizations.
与此同时,我们还要看到,历史的发展从来都不是一条直线,世界总是在曲折中前进。当前,世界大变局正在向纵深发展,国际形势中不稳定、不确定因素增多,国际关系中各种矛盾错综交织,各种力量分化组合加快,一些地区局势甚至出现动荡,这些都是国际体系调整时期不可避免的现象。总体而言:
That said, we must also remember that history doesn’t move in a straight line. It zigs and zags. The deepening changes in the world have brought more uncertainties and destabilizing factors - intricate entanglements in international relations, fast-changing reconfiguration of various forces, turbulence in some regions, to name just a few. All these have come up naturally in an international system under adjustment. But on the whole, I think it is fair to say the following about today’s world:
——尽管单边主义与多边合作的矛盾有增无减,但全球力量对比更加均衡与国际体系持续增强的趋势不可逆转;
– Clashes between unilateralism and multilateral cooperation are on the rise, but the trend toward a more balanced dispensation of power and a stronger international system is unstoppable.
——尽管围绕经济全球化与开放发展的争论有增无减,但世界经济迈向开放、包容、平衡、普惠的步伐不可阻挡;
– Opinions seem to be more divided over economic globalization and openness, but come what may, the world economy will be more open, inclusive, balanced, and beneficial to all.
——尽管大国之间既有共同利益又有矛盾分歧的状况有增无减,但各国之间相互依存、彼此制衡的基本格局不会改变;
– It is increasingly true that major countries have both shared interests and differences. Yet it remains the case that they depend on each other as much as they balance each other.
——尽管全球战略安全与地区热点问题的严峻态势有增无减,但国际安全环境总体稳定可控的局面不会动摇;
– We face grave strategic security challenges and serious regional hot-spots, but the global security environment is generally stable and under control.
——尽管各国之间的意识形态分歧与制度文化差异有增无减,但各种文明之间应该交流互鉴、开放包容的国际共识不会削弱。
– Countries may have more ideological disagreements and differences in terms of their system and culture, but there remains a strong international consensus for open and inclusive exchange and mutual learning between different civilizations.